Bottom set just a bluffcatcher?

[BorisTheSpider]

Villain is 20/16 with 5% 3bet, 60 hands. Postflop AF of 2.0 (obviously a very small sample as yet).

I think calling turn to re-eval river is best, folding to a river shove. Not sure I can bring myself to fold to a half pot river bet.

Do you agree that we have little more than a bluffcatcher? He's unlikely to be doing this with AJ - on this flop he'd probably have raised that on the flop.

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $25 (100 bb)
SB: $28.09 (112.4 bb)
BB: $25 (100 bb)
UTG: $27.37 (109.5 bb)
MP: $10.73 (42.9 bb)
Hero (CO): $28.43 (113.7 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 7 7
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.50, BTN folds, SB calls $0.40, BB folds

Flop: ($1.25) 7 J A (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.75, SB calls $0.75

Turn: ($2.75) 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $2, SB raises to $8

[OngBonga]

3 combos of JJ and 1 of T9cc vs 9 combos of AJ alone. Not folding. I prob jam now to avoid further complications, there's a few rivers that give us a headache.

[abelardx]

Ten outs to a boat or quads so call and draw at the very least.

[griffey24]

What happened to not trying to fold the relative nuts?

I'll help you out. Unless the board is a four straight or four flush, we prob don't need to be thinking about folding sets all that often.

[griffey24]

Also other things to consider:

1) Is the hand you're afraid of that feasible? He's SB cold calling a Btn open, so this probably removes 9To and leaves 9Ts. 4 combos.
2) Is the draw you're worried about having completed a strong draw? In this case his 9Ts was a gutshot, on a two-tone board, with high cards on board. So he would have to be calling purely for his gutshot, when he has tainted flush outs. He's likely not calling all of his 9Ts here, so maybe that leaves 2-3 combos.
3) Does he have other hands that could play this way that we beat? Yes - AJ (9 combos, maybe some raise flop so 4 combos), A8hh/ss (2), 78hh (1).

So now we have 7 combos value towning themselves, at most 3 combos of straights, AND we have equity vs the hands we lose to.

yada yada, I re-iterate, stop trying to find folds with sets!

[The Bean Counter]

Definitely not folding at any point.

Whatever villain shows up with, you can use that info to take a valuable note and pretty much own him in the future.

[d0zer]

What happened to not trying to fold the relative nuts?

I'll help you out. Unless the board is a four straight or four flush, we prob don't need to be thinking about folding sets all that often.

When I saw the thread title and boris I knew this thread was going to be ridiculous

[Micro2Macro]

just call

then call any river

[BorisTheSpider]

Well, I've been doing the combos on this in CREV, and I think people might be surprised to hear there's a singificant difference between jamming the turn and stationing.

I've given him a preflop range of JJ-44,AQs-A7s,KQs-KJs,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,AQo,KQo which I think is generous in that I've gone out of my way to include the 87s and A8s/A7s he might do this with on the turn.

If he calls the flop with any pair, flush draw, and gutter, then checkraises the turn with any two pair, any flush draw, any set and any straight, then I have 48% equity and jamming has an EV of ~6bb if he calls with 2pr, sets and straights.

If he can have AJo then a turn shove is really good and it's not close (EV is nearly 28bb), but if he can't have it, then it's really quite marginal.

On the other hand, calling the turn to then call a river jam from all his 2 pair, sets and straight is good, even leaving out AJo. The EV of a turn call (if he can't have AJo preflop) is ~15bb and calling a river shove has an EV of ~23bb, going up to 25bb and 44bb for each call respectively if he jammed all his missed flush draws on the river.

Calling is obviously better because it lets him bluff it off on the river.

Perhaps Griffey/M2M or someone else who's experienced with CREV can help me out with something (it's probably dumb) that's confusing me. If I get the money in against the same range of hands in the two scenarios (ie. he doesn't jam the river with his missed flush draws) - so either I jam the turn and he calls with {2 pair, set, straight} or I station it off and he shoves the river with that same range, in the first case I get an EV for my turn jam of about 6bb, wheras for calling I get EVs of about 15bb and 23bb for the calls on the turn and river. So the overall EV of stationing it off then is about 38bb, so how can it only be 6bb if I jam the money in on the turn and get it in with the same range? Maybe I've misunderstood something fundamental, or maybe I just don't understand CREV properly.

[BorisTheSpider]

Ah, I think I get it - it's because if I station it off, I get 2.1:1 on the turn (with 50% equity) and 2.2:1 on the river (with 44% equity), so that's why I get the EV's that I do, wheras if I jam the turn (with 41% equity vs his calling range, and 24% fold equity vs. his turn raising range in a 51bb pot when I jam) the odds are worse.

Have I also interpreted CREV correctly in that if the EV of a turn call is ~15bb, and the EV of a river call is ~23bb, that I can say the EV of that line as a whole (ie. making the decision on the turn to call any river) is simply 38bb, or is it somehow more complex than that in some way I haven't thought of?

[griffey24]

Ah, I think I get it - it's because if I station it off, I get 2.1:1 on the turn (with 50% equity) and 2.2:1 on the river (with 44% equity), so that's why I get the EV's that I do, wheras if I jam the turn (with 41% equity vs his calling range, and 24% fold equity vs. his turn raising range in a 51bb pot when I jam) the odds are worse.

Have I also interpreted CREV correctly in that if the EV of a turn call is ~15bb, and the EV of a river call is ~23bb, that I can say the EV of that line as a whole (ie. making the decision on the turn to call any river) is simply 38bb, or is it somehow more complex than that in some way I haven't thought of?

I would just look at the EV of the earliest point on the branch that makes sense. So maybe in this case the EV starting at the point of betting on the turn.

[ISillyDurrrAK]

If u start thinking about folding sets...