Let's Talk Continuation Betting

Again, there's no thread for this in the digest, so I'm basically making one. You guys talk about it too, I'm just going to hit some highlights.

A continuation bet is when you were the aggressor pre-flop, and you bet the flop. If you open raise AK preflop and the flop comes A86r and you bet, that's a continuation bet. If you have QJo there instead, that's also a continuation bet.

Continuation bets are cool because people tend to play in very exploitable ways on the flop by either folding way too much or by calling with way too much. Against people who fold too much, you should semi-bluff and bluff a lot. Against people call down way too much, you shouldn't semi-bluff or bluff much at all.

The texture of the flop changes how often your opponents are likely to fold. The more connected it is, and the more.... um.... flushy it is, and the more likely they hit top or second pair, the more likely you're going to get a call, so you should adjust your bluffing and semi-bluffing ranges accordingly.

If you're on a pure bluff with no equity at all the times you're called and you bet 2/3 of the pot, then your bet is +EV if your opponent folds more than 40% of the time. Similarly, if you bet 1/2 of the pot they have to fold more than 33% of the time, and if you bet the full pot, they have to fold more than 50% of the time. Value betting works differently than this, and is based on a number of other factors.

To analyze a continuation betting spot, put your opponents on a range pre-flop, and then if you're in position, put them on a checking range. If you're first to act on the flop, their range hasn't changed since pre-flop because they haven't made any new actions yet. Decide how they will play their range, what your value betting range should be, and examine how profitable bluffing will be in terms of how often they're folding.

Alright, you guys take it from here. Maybe post some examples and whatnot.

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

Continuation bets are cool because people tend to play in very exploitable ways on the flop by either folding way too much or by calling with way too much.

Calling a Cbet is an area i struggle with. I tend to fold too much. eg AKo IP on a rag tt flop. Its been something i have been trying to work on. To compliment putting them on a range i have started to make notes as to whether they are a quality Cbet'er or a quantity Cbet'er, distinguishing the two by comparing their Flop Cbet to their Turn Cbet (this isnt an original idea). The closer the two the less likely i am to call. Obv. this is weighted with hands they have showndown, flop texture, implied odds etc.

Originally Posted by Openside

Calling a Cbet is an area i struggle with. I tend to fold too much. eg AKo IP on a rag tt flop. Its been something i have been trying to work on. To compliment putting them on a range i have started to make notes as to whether they are a quality Cbet'er or a quantity Cbet'er, distinguishing the two by comparing their Flop Cbet to their Turn Cbet (this isnt an original idea). The closer the two the less likely i am to call. Obv. this is weighted with hands they have showndown, flop texture, implied odds etc.

The bold makes no sense, and probably is a result of you not understanding how turn c-bet % is calculated. If you c-bet the flop then see a turn and it's checked to you on the turn 10 times, and of those 10 times you bet 7, then your turn c-bet is 70%. This means your flop c-bet percentage could be 10% with a turn c-bet percentage of 70%.

Here's an example of this over a few hundred hands:



Also it takes a very large sample for the turn c-bet percentage to converge to anything even remotely useful.

Originally Posted by Openside

Calling a Cbet is an area i struggle with. I tend to fold too much. eg AKo IP on a rag tt flop. Its been something i have been trying to work on. To compliment putting them on a range i have started to make notes as to whether they are a quality Cbet'er or a quantity Cbet'er, distinguishing the two by comparing their Flop Cbet to their Turn Cbet (this isnt an original idea). The closer the two the less likely i am to call. Obv. this is weighted with hands they have showndown, flop texture, implied odds etc.

I to struggle with this area. Maybe this will help me out.

edit: spoons response came in while I was typing. Now I'll re-evaluate!

Handling continuation bets with non-made hands:

First, you have to put your opponent on a range when he continuation bets. Obviously you are going to consider his original preflop range and his Flop-CBet-% stat. In general, the lower his PFR% and the lower his F-CBet-% stats, the tighter and stronger his cbet range is likely to be.

If you completely missed the flop, your best choice is to just fold unless have a strong read that you can steal with a raise or on the turn. By "completely missed", I mean that you have no overcards and no weak draws.

If you have a strong draw (8+ outs), you can often decide between calling or raising. Remember -- raising with a draw is only profitable if your opponent has a folding range. If your opponent is a calling station or re-raising maniac, just call and see the next card (the good news: you have great implied odds in these situations). Otherwise, raising with your strong draws is a great way to balance the times you raise with a monster hand.

If you have a hand that is between "complete miss" and "strong draw", like a missed AK on a dry board, you'll have use your reads on your opponent. Is this an overbet from a normally passive player with a 40% cbet stat? You can probably fold and pick a better spot. Is this a half-pot cbet from a loose villain that cbets 90%? This could be a good spot for a call, either for value or to setup a steal.

Finally, pay attention to the bet sizes. It is not that rare to find opponents who announce what kind of hand they are holding based on their bet size (ex: 1/2 pot or less for bluffs or weak hands, pot for strong hands).

Matt Janda, the CR game theory coach, makes the point that, if someone were c-betting 2/3 pot 100%, then you'd have to defend at least 40% of the time to make their strategy incorrect. I'm not sure how you'd figure that out during play, but it's an interesting idea.

Few other general guidelines I have found useful:
- tend to bluff-cbet more IP than OOP
- tend to bluff-cbet more heads up than multiway
- tend to cbet a polarized range (ie tend not to cbet medium strength made hands that have showdown value)

Originally Posted by spoonitnow

The bold makes no sense, and probably is a result of you not understanding how turn c-bet % is calculated. If you c-bet the flop then see a turn and it's checked to you on the turn 10 times, and of those 10 times you bet 7, then your turn c-bet is 70%. This means your flop c-bet percentage could be 10% with a turn c-bet percentage of 70%.

Here's an example of this over a few hundred hands:



Also it takes a very large sample for the turn c-bet percentage to converge to anything even remotely useful.

I get your point. No, im pretty sure i understand. This isnt my idea, as stated. It is taken from a certain pooh-bah post. I can link if it isn't a faux pas.
I'd be folding faster than an origami master against a 10/70 Cbet.

Bump.

As much as I hate spoon, the mofo could write some strat threads.

Thanks for the bump - not a long thread, but some things for me to think about. This is one of the areas I've been thinking about changing, specifically 1) lowering my c-bet percentage 2) being more aggressive in responding to c-bets.