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spoonitnow
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06-14-2009, 05:17 AM
Post subject: IRC Poker Quiz Thread
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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spoonitnow: Okay I'll do a serious poker quiz
Illfavor: k thx
spoonitnow: At a 9-handed table with 100bb effective stacks, a 7/6 opens 4x UTG+1 and he has a 92% fold to 3-bet stat and a 55% fold steal to 3-bet stat over a very large sample. It folds to you with A2s otb. Describe the EV of a 3-bet to 12x assuming both blinds are 14/11 slightly-too-tight typical low stakes FR regulars.
spoonitnow: Actually let's make this a thread so I can go to bed
Edit: spoonitnow: Assume his attempt to steal is 15
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Illfavor
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Denton, TX
Posts: 1,152
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Villain is opening UTG so i'll give him a range of AKo+, TT+. His range is 27 combinations of pps, and 12 combinations of unpaired hands. He folds extremely often to 3bets when in EP, so I'll say he's folding everything but KK+ to 3bets. His range folded to 3bets is 9 pp combos.
9/39= 23% or 77% FE when we 3bet w/A2s. His fold to 3bet stat kinda suggests he doesn't even call w/KK here, or also that he opens a somewhat wider range than I have listed, but is still folding all but KK+.
If he opens 4x there's 5.5BB in the pot, and we 3bet to 12, needed him to fold (12/17.5) 69% of the time to BE, which he will. The blinds are tight and fold a whole bunch so they're not too much of a concern, and also the UTG range is made up mostly of blockers to the blinds probably continuing range.
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Ich grolle nicht...
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preflop EV:
put in $12 to win $5.5
blinds have 3 combos of AA, and 6 combos of KK
that's a total combined chance of 1% of them coming back over the top
less than 1.3% because UTG+1 has a good chance to have an ace or a king blocker
since UTG+1 is somewhat positionally aware (15% steal) he's only opening like 5% UTG+1 (I did 5% in pokerstove, took out ace of diamonds, got 4.3%, then just left the aces without ace of diamonds and got 0.2%)
since he's opening so tight he has to be folding KK to a 3b for him to be ABLE to have a 92% fold to a 3b
so he's probably calling 20% of the time in this situation (his 92% fold comes from situations like raising from MP where his range is wider)
we're going to assume he 4bs every time he has aces
we win $5.5 79% of the time, we lose $12 21% of the time (1% cold 4b from both of the blinds)
4.345 - 2.52 =~ 1.8bb every time we 3b
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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What about the times someone in the blinds 4-bets?
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by spoonitnow
What about the times someone in the blinds 4-bets?
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I dealt with that, that should only happen 1% of the time which I added to my 20% that the original raiser shoves it in
but in fact it matters more what range the original raiser opens, because if he opens one more/less hand than I assumed then that's like 0.5% difference already in our fold equity if it's a pp and 1% if it's not
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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I was talking to the other fish.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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VYKevin
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02-06-2011, 08:29 AM
Post subject: My first post, be nice to me! ;)
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#7 (permalink)
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High Card
Join Date: Feb 2011
Posts: 1
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Hello all, this is my first post here, just getting familiar with the place!
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daviddem
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Full House
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: Philippines/Saudi Arabia
Posts: 983
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Quote:
Originally Posted by VYKevin
Hello all, this is my first post here, just getting familiar with the place!
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in b4 noob gets shafted for polluting spoon's thread and posting his intro (sort of) in the worse possible place
Welcome to FTR! Introduce yourself here.
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