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Originally Posted by ButtonMash
Forgive me if I being thick. Also, I' m not trying to be antagonistic.
@ Oskar. I copied a solution from someone else as an example of a calculation I couldn't do whilst playing a hand.
@ Spoon. I do get the point you made earlier that you didn't intend this to be done during play.
I didn't randomly pick numbers. I took the ratio between amount that might be lost v the amount to be won. $2 : $5. ie 40 : 100. He has to fold 40% of the time for this to be a good play for us of we exclude the four outs. The quick calculation for outs is 2% per out per street. Four outs = 8% chance. An 8% improvement on the 40% (in absolute terms, not relative). This means he must fold 32% of the time for our turn bet to succeed. I thought this seemed a reasonable (pretty close to 31.7%) way to answer your original question in the time permitted during a game. I'll be quite happy if someone can show me mathematically where I' m going wrong because I' m obviously missing a point that others find quite elementary.
You can't just subtract 8% from 40% there. It doesn't work like that. You've randomly picked two numbers and decided to subtract them.
For example, let's say we have 12 outs instead. Then our EV is 3x + (1-x)(12/46)(5) + (1-x)(34/46)(-2) and x has to be greater than 4/73 (about 5.6%) for our bet to be +EV. If you tried to just say 40% - 24%, you'd get 16% which is way off.
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