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spoonitnow
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09-09-2010, 03:11 PM
Post subject: Double Barreling Quiz
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#1 (permalink)
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Barreling the turn has been a hot topic lately in the BC, so I'm acting appropriately by asking about a fairly easy-to-understand scenario that teaches a whole lot about barreling.
We raise pre-flop and Villain calls. We see a heads-up flop OOP. We c-bet and Villain calls. The turn comes. We have a gutshot to the nuts, but no other outs. Suppose the turn pot is $3. If we bet $2 as a second barrel, how often does Villain have to fold for our barrel to be +EV?
For this example, let's assume that we never get raised on the turn, but that we also never make any extra money on the river the times we hit.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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JR9477
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Iowa
Posts: 426
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More than 40%
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(Josh)
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NightGizmo
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Flush
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 268
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n = %fold
EV(fold) = 3n
EV(call+lose) = (1-n)(42/46)(-2)
EV(call+win) = (1-n)(4/46)(5)
If we add up the 3 EV values and set the sum equal to 0, then solve for n, we get 31.7% (if I did my math right).
The 40% number is only right if your bet is a pure bluff (meaning that you have 0 equity on the river if called).
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Pelion
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 3,206
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I'll rough math because why not.
gutshot is 8% but Ill call it 10% out of laziness.
EV when he calls is:
Lose $2 90% of the time = -$1.80
Win $3 10% of the time = +$0.30
= -$1.50
[edit] fail. We win $5 when he calls and we win. Final answer is smaller than I said first [/edit]
So If a call costs us $1.50 and a fold wins us $3 we need him to fold once for every 2 calls to break even => 33%.
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gabe: Ive dropped almost 100k in the past 35 days.
bigspenda73: But how much did you win?
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kfaess
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Flush
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 556
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Haven't looked at other responses yet because I want to try and do this on my own first.
EV = x * $3 + (1-x)[(4/46) * $7 - (42/46) * $2]
we set EV = 0 and solve for x:
1.2174 = 3x + 1.2174x
x = 28.87% of the time he needs to fold
Final conclusion: This really doesn't seem like that much, especially if he's the type of player who's going to peel flop wide.
Is this right? I had to look back at caddie's showdown thread to double check my equation but I think its correct.
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JR9477
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Flush
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Iowa
Posts: 426
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JR9477
More than 40%
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31.7% seems right to me (Stayed up a bit too late last night haha)
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(Josh)
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JoeHaw
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: IL
Posts: 186
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kfaess change the 7 into a 5 and you're good. x= 32/101 or 31.7%
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kfaess
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Flush
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 556
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yea just sorted that out in irc, thanks joe
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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The right answer is about 31.7%. If we had no equity when called, we would need our opponent to fold 40% of the time. Note the huge effect just 4 outs has on how often our opponent has to fold.
Now go into PT3 or HEM and find your turn c-bet success percentage. If you don't have it for PT3, you can download it here C-bet Turn Success Percentage.pt3stat, and then post your findings here in the thread.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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JoeHaw
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: IL
Posts: 186
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34.7% only over around 20k tho new database
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kfaess
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Flush
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 556
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48.4% over about 18.5k hands (since moving to FTP)
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kfaess
48.4% over about 18.5k hands (since moving to FTP)
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Seems a bit high. Make sure you're looking at turn c-bet success, and not turn c-bet or c-bet success.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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daven
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: soaking up ethanol, moving on up
Posts: 5,805
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Turn c-bet success is 40% this month, 30k sample
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PlayToWin
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Full House
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 606
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At 10NL FR, 55K hands, Turn c-bet success = 36.7%
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Explain...what I do for a living without saying "I make monies in da 600 enels by pwnin' tha donk bitches". Instead I say "I'm a online financial redistribution broker". - Sasquach991
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philly and the phanatics
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Full House
Join Date: Dec 2006
Posts: 1,109
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38 % turn cbet success over 40k hands of 10nl
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JKDS
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Full House
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Chandler, AZ
Posts: 1,024
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That...is really neat
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OngBonga
But no, jkds is lolvillager and anyone who wants to string him up is sighbad.
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Micro2Macro
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Moderator
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: http://three-pair.com/
Posts: 4,463
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Quote:
Originally Posted by philly and the phanatics
38 % turn cbet success over 40k hands of 10nl
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lol wow wtf that seems a bit low
whats your river cbet success?
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"Once we reach a certain level of mastery, we see there are higher levels and challenges. If we are disciplined and patient, we proceed. At each higher level, new pleasures and insights await us--ones not even suspected when we started out. We can take this as far as we want--in any human activity there is always a higher level to which we can aspire."
Check out my blog here!
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http://www.philgalfond.com/lets-make-some-changes/
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oskar
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: in ur accounts... confiscating ur funz
Posts: 2,452
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kfaess
EV = x * $3 + (1-x)[(4/46) * $7 - (42/46) * $2]
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4/46 times you bet $2, and then won a pot of 7, so you netted +5.
Otherwise everything is neato.
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The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
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ButtonMash
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One Pair
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 18
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EV = x * $3 + (1-x)[(4/46) * $7 - (42/46) * $2]
While this formula isn't high level math I couldn't possibly do this calculation during play.
I see the problem as lose $2 or win $5, or 40:100 without any outs.
Considering we have 4 outs, the rule of 4 or 2 (this is only one street so 2 in our case) gives us an improvement of 8%. 40% - 8% is 32%.
I could easily do this while playing the hand. Is this method valid or am I oversimplifying somewhere?
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Micro2Macro
lol wow wtf that seems a bit low
whats your river cbet success?
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When we were talking about this the other day, I think yours was similar.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ButtonMash
EV = x * $3 + (1-x)[(4/46) * $7 - (42/46) * $2]
While this formula isn't high level math I couldn't possibly do this calculation during play.
I see the problem as lose $2 or win $5, or 40:100 without any outs.
Considering we have 4 outs, the rule of 4 or 2 (this is only one street so 2 in our case) gives us an improvement of 8%. 40% - 8% is 32%.
I could easily do this while playing the hand. Is this method valid or am I oversimplifying somewhere?
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No shit. The point isn't to try to do it during play. The point is that a 2/3 PSB needs your opponent to fold 40% of the time if you have no outs, and a bit less if you have as little as 4 outs.
Also your calculation is terribly wrong.
Quote:
Originally Posted by JKDS
That...is really neat
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You're welcome.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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ButtonMash
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One Pair
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 18
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It seems I missed the point , but the result seems to be the same.
Ok... I accept what you say... but my question was... Is my reasoning valid or am I oversimplifying?
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ButtonMash
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One Pair
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 18
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Please explain where my caculation was wrong
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ButtonMash
Please explain where my caculation was wrong
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You can't just randomly pick numbers and use an operation on them and if it happens to come up with something close to the right answer assume you have the right calculation.
If you were doing it right, then you'd get the exact answer, not just some number that's kinda-sorta close. Like if we changed some of the original parameters, it wouldn't work out like that.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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kfaess
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Flush
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 556
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spoonitnow
Seems a bit high. Make sure you're looking at turn c-bet success, and not turn c-bet or c-bet success.
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yea you're right I was looking at flop cbet success. My turn cbet success is 36.3%
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oskar
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4-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: in ur accounts... confiscating ur funz
Posts: 2,452
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ButtonMash
Please explain where my caculation was wrong
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I can't believe this. You copy and paste the solution from someone else, and now you want someone to explain to you how it is wrong? When in the post right above I just pointed out what was wrong.
r u 4 real
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The strengh of a hero is defined by the weakness of his villains.
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oskar
I can't believe this. You copy and paste the solution from someone else, and now you want someone to explain to you how it is wrong? When in the post right above I just pointed out what was wrong.
r u 4 real
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Look closer. He didn't use the same calculation.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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ButtonMash
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One Pair
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 18
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Forgive me if I being thick. Also, I'm not trying to be antagonistic.
@ Oskar. I copied a solution from someone else as an example of a calculation I couldn't do whilst playing a hand.
@ Spoon. I do get the point you made earlier that you didn't intend this to be done during play.
I didn't randomly pick numbers. I took the ratio between amount that might be lost v the amount to be won. $2 : $5. ie 40 : 100. He has to fold 40% of the time for this to be a good play for us of we exclude the four outs. The quick calculation for outs is 2% per out per street. Four outs = 8% chance. An 8% improvement on the 40% (in absolute terms, not relative). This means he must fold 32% of the time for our turn bet to succeed. I thought this seemed a reasonable (pretty close to 31.7%) way to answer your original question in the time permitted during a game. I'll be quite happy if someone can show me mathematically where I'm going wrong because I'm obviously missing a point that others find quite elementary.
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ButtonMash
Forgive me if I being thick. Also, I'm not trying to be antagonistic.
@ Oskar. I copied a solution from someone else as an example of a calculation I couldn't do whilst playing a hand.
@ Spoon. I do get the point you made earlier that you didn't intend this to be done during play.
I didn't randomly pick numbers. I took the ratio between amount that might be lost v the amount to be won. $2 : $5. ie 40 : 100. He has to fold 40% of the time for this to be a good play for us of we exclude the four outs. The quick calculation for outs is 2% per out per street. Four outs = 8% chance. An 8% improvement on the 40% (in absolute terms, not relative). This means he must fold 32% of the time for our turn bet to succeed. I thought this seemed a reasonable (pretty close to 31.7%) way to answer your original question in the time permitted during a game. I'll be quite happy if someone can show me mathematically where I'm going wrong because I'm obviously missing a point that others find quite elementary. |
You can't just subtract 8% from 40% there. It doesn't work like that. You've randomly picked two numbers and decided to subtract them.
For example, let's say we have 12 outs instead. Then our EV is 3x + (1-x)(12/46)(5) + (1-x)(34/46)(-2) and x has to be greater than 4/73 (about 5.6%) for our bet to be +EV. If you tried to just say 40% - 24%, you'd get 16% which is way off.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Okay here's an example of what you're doing in practice:
There was a captain on a ship is 45 miles away from land has been at sea for 900 hours. How old is the captain?
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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caddie444
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Full House
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: constantly UTG
Posts: 723
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43.8% over 100K @ 50NL FR
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Don't complain; Just work harder - Randy Pausch (The Last Lecture)
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Quote:
Originally Posted by caddie444
43.8% over 100K @ 50NL FR
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Seems a bit high. Make sure you're looking at turn c-bet success, and not turn c-bet or c-bet success.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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ButtonMash
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One Pair
Join Date: Aug 2010
Posts: 18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spoonitnow
You can't just subtract 8% from 40% there. It doesn't work like that. You've randomly picked two numbers and decided to subtract them.
For example, let's say we have 12 outs instead. Then our EV is 3x + (1-x)(12/46)(5) + (1-x)(34/46)(-2) and x has to be greater than 4/73 (about 5.6%) for our bet to be +EV. If you tried to just say 40% - 24%, you'd get 16% which is way off.
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Thanks for your help. Even more thanks for your patience.
BTW the Captain is 20
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JoeHaw
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Straight
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: IL
Posts: 186
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Okay so my question is what frequency do we barrel at here? Like A lot of people say you should set up your frequencies based on the cards you have, so does that mean we're db'ing everytime in this spot??
Because I'm sure that out of all of the opportunities we have to bluff while playing, this is leaning towards the more marginal side- so like if we do this everytime that means we're bluffing a lot of more +EV times and then we're just bluffing too much and we get exploited.
I've never gotten a grasp of this
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caddie444
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Full House
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: constantly UTG
Posts: 723
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spoonitnow
Seems a bit high. Make sure you're looking at turn c-bet success, and not turn c-bet or c-bet success.
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played a bit more so it's a bit lower but there she is
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Don't complain; Just work harder - Randy Pausch (The Last Lecture)
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ButtonMash
Thanks for your help. Even more thanks for your patience.
BTW the Captain is 20
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No he's not. You have no way to decide how old the captain is. That's the point: you can't just take random numbers and throw them together for no reason.
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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parislad
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: ~Manchester~
Posts: 75
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38.8% turn cbet success @10NL 23k hands in past month...
Thanks for getting my maths brain going with the calculations again before i start my studies next week 
Also I think he might have actually been joking when he said the captain was 20, but the shoot down was safe.
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Assumption is the mother of all fuck ups
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L_Clan_Sup3rMaN
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Full House
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 833
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32.6% over 27k hands this month 6m
35.5% over 550k hands this year 6m
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spoonitnow
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Straight Flush
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: IRC Chat Room
Posts: 5,406
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Quote:
Originally Posted by L_Clan_Sup3rMaN
32.6% over 27k hands this month 6m
35.5% over 550k hands this year 6m
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Thanks for lending us your numbers. =]
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by Ripptyde
I only have 2 simple rules when I am coaching a new student.
Rule # 1: don't ask questions
Rule # 2: don't ask questions
I have no interest in discussing strategy with a protege'. Your job is to remain quiet and listen. I have a very systematic approach that I will share with the right candidate and I promise that I will turn you into a force of nature and show you elements of the game of poker that you never knew existed.
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birdman417
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3-of-a-Kind
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: US
Posts: 82
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26% over 17k hands
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