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Thought process okay?

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  1. #1

    Default Thought process okay?

    I find myself losing the most money from these type of situations, can you guys look over these examples and let me know your thoughts. I am not at home where the actual HH is so I will try to explain the best I can

    Playing .02/ .04 for about 50 hands or so

    I pick up AQ off from the SB action folds around to me

    I raise to .12 into the BB which calls making the pot .24

    I have around 300 HH from the BB and his Vpip is 43 and PFR is 3

    Flop comes 10 Q 6, I bet .16 into .24 and the BB call making the pot .56

    Turn brings another 10 and I bet .40 and the BB calls again making the pot 1.36

    River is a 3 I tank and then check and the BB bets 1.20 into 1.36 and I call and lose to 10 9

    On the flop when he calls I am thinking he could have a 10, worse Q or straight draw like KJ, J9

    On the turn after I bet and the action was on him, he was tanking for a few seconds and I thought that he had a 10 and was thinking if calling or raising would be a better option for him to get the most money

    On the river I considered block betting hoping he would just call and not raise but decided to check/ call.





    I had been playing for around 80 hands and was up 2.50 or so

    I am in the BB, there are two limpers and it gets to me with K5 off I check to see a flop

    Flop comes 5K2 with two diamonds, there is .16 in the pot and I bet .12, one player folds and 1 calls which over 200+ hands he was 53 VPIP / 8PFR

    Turn comes A and I bet .25 into .40 pot and he calls again making the pot .90

    River comes 4, flush did not get there, I bet .65 and get raised to 1.44, I call

    He shows 83 of diamonds for a straight

    My thoughts during the hand were:

    On the flop call by him I was thinking he had some sort of flush draw, like Ax because he did not raise pre I did not put him on high cards like AK, KQ, KJ etc.

    When the turn comes an A I am thinking it’s possible that he paired and still has a flush draw so I bet for value thinking he may raise or at least call

    On the river raise by him I was thinking what kind of three could have been calling three streets and the only made since was A3 of diamonds, now that I am thinking about this hand again he could have had any flush draw with a 3 and that would make since, is this a correct call or should I have folded to the raise

    Should I have check and called? Or check folded?

    Please let me know your thoughts about these and situations like these, also am I thinking correctly about things in these spots? If not please inform
  2. #2
    You're gonna get much better feedback if you post some actual hands, using a hand converter.

    As for the hands in question.

    Hand 1) This is just variance. A fish though will generally show up with a lot of Tx in this spot so you have to be wary of Tx. Sometimes they will also have random KJ or other nonsense. Also if a fish is really passive, some ppl don't bluff missed draws in which case their range will be more weighted towards Tx and decent Qx.

    Hand 2) This is just a bad spot to bluff, since it's hard to rep 3x AND it's obvious the FD missed. It's a bad spot to bluff, so ppl are generally not bluffing. Also an A turning isn't great, as lots of ppl could have Ax better two pair now. Some ppl might even raise that on the river here. So either i) If you perceive the player as good, they prob won't run a bluff in a bad spot very often
    ii) If you perceive them as bad, they might run a bluff in a bad spot, but if they are bad they might be loose enough to have more 3x as well
    Quote Originally Posted by Jay-Z
    I'm a couple hands down and I'm tryin' to get back
    I gave the other grip, I lost a flip for five stacks
  3. #3
    Things like this will happen and it can be very frustrating. However, most times they won't show up with a monster and you'll win. You don't notice those times though. A good rule of thumb for these stakes is to bet all three streets with TPGK or better. You're usually far ahead. But fold small hands when raised on the turn or river. When you're new to poker, you're suspicious of people's raises and want to see their hand, but that is a losing move. If you play enough, you learn from experience to fold in those spots.

    So what's a small hand ie what should you be folding to a turn or river raise? It varies with how coordinated the board is, but generally two pair or worse is a small hand. Sets are almost always good, though.

    Google 'Baluga Theorem'.
  4. #4
    1) River: passive micro fish will always check back stuff you beat, let alone bet huge on a paired board. Blocker bet has more going for it than check call.

    2) Hand is fine until raised on the river.Passive fish don't raise without the business and this particular 2-pair isn't going to be good. If I had a buck for everytime I've called in those spots in the past and seen something bizarre that beats me, I'd be loaded. At the micros, folding to a raise unless have the pot or implied odds to continue or the nuts or near nuts is going to be bad very, very rarely.

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