Double Day Unlimited Werewolf

[baudib]

MAJ STUF

[gabe]

good job today ong. you really made a splash

[Hoopy]

I'm heading out right now, but will do a proper write up when I get back in.

Ong was a villager.

Night will last 24 hours

[Hoopy]

Gator has been killed!

He was a villager.

Day 3 starts now, 48 hours until the final lynch!

The Village
gabe
lilrascal
baudib

2 Villagers
1 Wolf

Luco was lynched day 1
MMM was lynched day 1
Bankitdrew was killed night 1
JKDS was lynched day 2
Ong was lynched day 2.
Gator was killed night 2.

2 votes to lynch.

[lilrascal]

When I saw that Ong flipped villager this morning, I was thinking it had to be gabe and was expecting to get NK'd. Then, when I saw that gator was NK'd and now I'm not sure what to think.

After gator was killed, my thought is that it has to be baudib because gator was voting baudib and I had come around to thinking baudib was a villager last night.

If baudib is the wolf, then killing me would have left him with gator and gabe at f3 and he would almost certainly lose there. If baudib would have killed gabe, then gator and I would have killed him at f3. He had both gator and me as clear villas, so he had to take one of us out and gator was the obvious choice for him since gator was voting for him.

From a baudib wolf perspective, that was really his only NK option.

Initially I thought that if gabe is the wolf, I think he would have killed me or baudib, since gator had him as villa "greater than 50%" of the time and baudib was voting him and I was suspicious of him. But, if gabe is the wolf, then killing me would have been bad for him since I was suspicious of him and my death would have pointed to him more likely than baudib in a gator/gabe/baudib f3. If gabe would have killed baudib, then I would be voting gabe 100% of the time and since gator was reading me villa, I think he would have voted for gabe as well.

From a gabe wolf perspective, that was his best NK option.


I hate f3's.

[lilrascal]

I've got to think on this some more.

[lilrascal]

why dont we cinch ong now... we'll see what happens tomorrow

lilrascal i see that youre saying you dont find me to be a lock villager. pretty much all the evidence of why im a villager came in an earlier part of the game (not the very very beginning). since then i felt that there wasnt a challenge left so i havent checked back much.

also btw you said i had some wolfy EOD posts but those posts were at the beginning of the day (around where i said "ong did you trick me?")

This almost looks like he knew that Ong was going to flip villa and that we'd still be here today.

I should have stuck with my gut and voted gabe. I let gator's read on gabe being probably villa be the deciding factor in my vote.

[lilrascal]

I'm going to bed now, this is making my head hurt.

[baudib]

This F3 should lead to my and Rascal lynching Gabe all the time.

The problem is Gabe should know that and Gabe wolf probably should have killed Rascal.

[gabe]

big time congrats to whichever of you is the wolf. please give me time to decide which one of you it is. even if you mislynch me id still like to take a crack at this.

i'm not even sure which way i'm leaning right now... and i guess itd be better if i didnt say for now

[gabe]

i'm doing the full re read now. i'm going to bold the wolf

[baudib]

Bonus points to whoever realizes the obvious dynamic here first.

[gabe]

i dont think ive ever been in the final 3 as a villager before. this is awesome.

ive just read the thread. i didnt take any notes or prepare any quotes. i wanted to make a general read based on my instinct

i have the feeling that it would be very hard for baudib to play the way he has as a wolf. i dont get the same impression from rascal. rascal seems like he has a pandering tone kinda often. i mean cmon....

MMM, can you give me some cliffs and your thoughts?

Also, have you figured out how to do a spreadsheet with the double votes?

meanwhile baudib doesnt mind coming off abrasively and tries to point out major logical things going on. it would be hard for him to set out to play this way and be this successful at it.

the cases lilrascal has pushed havent been as strong as baudib's. obviously i know his case on me is no good since im not a wolf

[gabe]

also i feel like rascal has typed LOL more this game than ever before which can soooo easily (potentially) be correlated with him drawing wolf finally

[gabe]

on page 6 we had it all figured out.

i bolded a sentence from there that didnt fit rascals usual flow. its probably what he was thinking about his own condition

Yes, I'm looking for the wolf. There's 8 players left. I know I'm villa and 1 of the 7 of the rest is the wolf.

Without a seer and the other wolf dead, I think it will be easier for the last wolf to hide because he doesn't have to fear the seer and only has to protect himself.

At this point I'm going to be suspicious of everyone, but as I've said, I think Ong is villa and I feel good about gabe. Beyond that, I'm not sure.

[baudib]

Gabe and Rascal:

Both of you are obviously voting the other one no matter what your role. Both of you know this.

both of you earn 11 wolf points for pretending like this was gonna go any other way.

[baudib]

p.s.
wolf, you might have a better shot by voting for me instead.

glgl

[baudib]

Listen wolf

you might as well vote me already. If I was going to vote the other guy I would have done so already.

[baudib]

I swear to god if you guys both go another 3 hours without voting I'm just flipping a coin.

this whole game has been ridiculous. this is the worst F3 I've ever seen.

[gabe]

i havent voted because im pretending theres a chance rascal swoops in and convinces me he cant be a wolf, and you must be a wolf

[Hoopy]

25 hours to go people.

[lilrascal]

I just got back to the hotel.

[lilrascal]

I did some rereading last night and will post about that in a few minutes. Let me answer some of the questions above first.

[lilrascal]

i dont think ive ever been in the final 3 as a villager before. this is awesome.

ive just read the thread. i didnt take any notes or prepare any quotes. i wanted to make a general read based on my instinct

i have the feeling that it would be very hard for baudib to play the way he has as a wolf. i dont get the same impression from rascal. rascal seems like he has a pandering tone kinda often. i mean cmon....


meanwhile baudib doesnt mind coming off abrasively and tries to point out major logical things going on. it would be hard for him to set out to play this way and be this successful at it.

the cases lilrascal has pushed havent been as strong as baudib's. obviously i know his case on me is no good since im not a wolf

Regarding the quote you mentioned where I responded to MMM about figuring out the spreadsheet. I got MMM's spreadsheet from him prior to champs game on POG and made some revisions to track votes better, but all of the formulas are for single voting, so I was curious if he had figured out how to track the multiple voting here to see if he would be posting it. BTW, even though I tracked all of the votes, I couldn't figure out a way to graph it to make sense.

also i feel like rascal has typed LOL more this game than ever before which can soooo easily (potentially) be correlated with him drawing wolf finally

LOL is not role indicative of me. Neither is

on page 6 we had it all figured out.

i bolded a sentence from there that didnt fit rascals usual flow. its probably what he was thinking about his own condition

I posted my thoughts on the game state as they came to me.

[lilrascal]

Gabe and Rascal:

Both of you are obviously voting the other one no matter what your role. Both of you know this.

both of you earn 11 wolf points for pretending like this was gonna go any other way.

Where did you ever get that impression? When I posted that, I was unsure who I was going to be voting for.

I will be voting soon, since I won't get off work tomorrow before EOD.

[lilrascal]

Last night, I went and read the Vikings game where gabe was a wolf. In that game, I had him pegged as a wolf from the beginning and tried to lynch him but got mislynched instead.

This game gabe is different. In both games he started out slow, but in the Vikings game he was pushier and much more reactionary and moving his vote around a lot. He's not playing that way in this game, he's making his reads and sticking with them. While, I think some of his posts have been wolfy, you can always see a wolf in anyone's post if you get stuck in your mind that they are a wolf.

I think gabe is villa.

Baudib was pushing me early and voting me on D1 and D2, then rescinded both of those votes, then started buddying me up and hard defending me. He's done the same to gabe when he told me gabe is always a villager here even though he voted gabe on D1.5 (then rescinded) and D2. With gator, baudib has taken a different approach. He voted gator early on D1 and rescinded it and pushed him some until later in the game when he joined with everyone to say gator was a consensus villager. I think baudib tried to buddy up to us for the f3, which gator pointed out to me at the time, but I dismissed it.

I think gator had it right in that it's baudib as the final wolf.

[lilrascal]

I didn't place my vote there in case of a crosspost while typing that out. I plan to place my vote in a couple of minutes to avoid a crosspost.

[lilrascal]

Oh, the other factor that I forgot to mention is the NK of gator was baudib's only option based on the players alive at f4.

[lilrascal]

i havent voted because im pretending theres a chance rascal swoops in and convinces me he cant be a wolf, and you must be a wolf

I hope I convinced you enough. I don't have the tenacity that baudib does, so I'm just laying out the facts.

[lilrascal]

Gabe and Rascal:

Both of you are obviously voting the other one no matter what your role. Both of you know this.

both of you earn 11 wolf points for pretending like this was gonna go any other way.

p.s.
wolf, you might have a better shot by voting for me instead.

glgl

I swear to god if you guys both go another 3 hours without voting I'm just flipping a coin.

this whole game has been ridiculous. this is the worst F3 I've ever seen.

Also, this is very wolfy in trying to push for quick votes rather than

[lilrascal]

*than let us take our time to reread.

(oops, pushed the button too soon.)

[lilrascal]

I don't see how it's not baudib here.

lynch baudib

I hope I got this right. I did mention how I hate f3's.

[lilrascal]

I'm going to have a drink while I wait for you two to get here.

[baudib]

YES!!!!

trapped you

Lynch Rascal

[baudib]

Listen wolf

you might as well vote me already. If I was going to vote the other guy I would have done so already.

I didn't think you would be dumb enough to do it.

[lilrascal]

Gabe and Rascal:

Both of you are obviously voting the other one no matter what your role. Both of you know this.

both of you earn 11 wolf points for pretending like this was gonna go any other way.

p.s.
wolf, you might have a better shot by voting for me instead.

glgl

YES!!!!

trapped you

Lynch Rascal

How did you trap me? You're the wolf.

Unless you convince gabe to vote me too.

[lilrascal]

This MQ thing is really bugging me.

[baudib]

Rascal if you're villa then lol

how were you going to get Gabe to vote me?

you brought me here to lynch Gabe.

[baudib]

This F3 should lead to my and Rascal lynching Gabe all the time.

The problem is Gabe should know that and Gabe wolf probably should have killed Rascal.

This was my initial reaction but I realized that if I could get the wolf to vote me we would always win.

[lilrascal]

Rascal if you're villa then lol

how were you going to get Gabe to vote me?

you brought me here to lynch Gabe.

I didn't bring anyone here. You're only play last night was to NK gator. I almost fell for your pocketing of me, but when I reread gabe, especially in the Vikings game, I realized that my earlier reads were biased.

[baudib]

BTW if you're a villager Rascal, don't unbold. that's not cool. we should play it like votes are locked in.

[baudib]

I didn't bring anyone here. You're only play last night was to NK gator. I almost fell for your pocketing of me, but when I reread gabe, especially in the Vikings game, I realized that my earlier reads were biased.

wow we might have lost the game

i actually never pocket people as a wolf

i would literally never be a wolf with this line.

i should be the hammer here 100% and you 2 should be voting each other.

lol that you voted me.

[lilrascal]

This was my initial reaction but I realized that if I could get the wolf to vote me we would always win.

LOL. That was just an FPS post on your part.

[lilrascal]

wow we might have lost the game

i actually never pocket people as a wolf

i would literally never be a wolf with this line.

i should be the hammer here 100% and you 2 should be voting each other.

lol that you voted me.

Why should you be the hammer? That makes no sense.

[baudib]

LOL. That was just an FPS post on your part.

ok if I were a wolf, why would I FPS this spot. I have it won almost always. you and Gabe each have me as a villager at F5.

anyway, I really did think you were the wolf with the NK because there's no way Gabe makes it an F3 of us.

[baudib]

Why should you be the hammer? That makes no sense.

Because you and Gabe suspected each other all game?

[lilrascal]

Because you and Gabe suspected each other all game?

I've suspected a lot of people and have been proven wrong in this game.

[baudib]

whatever

how am I ever a wolf in this spot? lol you

Gabe if you're the wolf then gg.

[lilrascal]

ok if I were a wolf, why would I FPS this spot. I have it won almost always. you and Gabe each have me as a villager at F5.

anyway, I really did think you were the wolf with the NK because there's no way Gabe makes it an F3 of us.

Because I reassessed and did some reading. I really don't think gabe is the wolf here and you're just pushing your last mislynch here.

[lilrascal]

whatever

how am I ever a wolf in this spot? lol you

Gabe if you're the wolf then gg.

How are you not? You buddy'd up to everyone in the final 4, but then gator saw thru that and voted you, so you had to NK him.

[baudib]

Rascal if you're a villager we lost.

stahp

[baudib]

How are you not? You buddy'd up to everyone in the final 4, but then gator saw thru that and voted you, so you had to NK him.

Rascal I'd literally never take the line as the last wolf where I try to defend my mislynch wagons on D3, JFC. it's so -EV

that's also why JKDS was ~ always a villager.

[lilrascal]

Rascal if you're a villager we lost.

stahp

If we did, then good job by gabe. But I don't think the villa's losing this. You've been wolfy all game.

[lilrascal]

Rascal I'd literally never take the line as the last wolf where I try to defend my mislynch wagons on D3, JFC. it's so -EV

that's also why JKDS was ~ always a villager.

Wat?

[baudib]

i haven't been the slightest bit wolfy at all this game

you can't possibly think JKDS and I are this bad that we'd take that line at F7.

[baudib]

like if you were a villager you should be explaining to Gabe why. you're not so I'm pretty sure you're a wolf and we're going to win this.

I'm not going to talk to you anymore because you're either a wolf or you played really badly as a villager.

[lilrascal]

i haven't been the slightest bit wolfy at all this game

you can't possibly think JKDS and I are this bad that we'd take that line at F7.

I don't see how you really believe that. Six of the players in this game have voted for you at some point.

Are you saying everyone is bad and you're not wolfy?

[baudib]

I wasn't really even D1.

Rascal, your best +EV line was to lynch Gabe regardless of your role. for you not to realize this is interesting

if Gabe is a villager you were never getting me lynched

if he's a wolf it doesn't matter

[lilrascal]

like if you were a villager you should be explaining to Gabe why. you're not so I'm pretty sure you're a wolf and we're going to win this.

I'm not going to talk to you anymore because you're either a wolf or you played really badly as a villager.

I've laid my thoughts out on everything this game. You're the one who came in here attacking me because you know that I'm not as tenacious as you are.

[baudib]

Came in where? I didn't attack you at all.

[lilrascal]

Came in where? I didn't attack you at all.

Calling me dumb for voting you. Saying you trapped me, etc. I think you've been trying to bait me.

You even suggested that I not rescind you. It's like you're trying to get me to rethink that you're the wolf. I've made my read and I'm sticking with it.

If I'm wrong, then I apologize to the village.

[lilrascal]

I'm going to fix another drink and wait for gabe to show up.

[baudib]

I wasn't able to do a thorough reread of baudib like I did with everyone else since it's 1/3 of the thread. However, I did reread most of his game, which isn't as hard as I thought it would be because most of his posts are short and are like his turbo game.

The first 5 and a half pages (100 ppp) look just like baudib's turbo villa game, which is quick and reacting to posts in real time. After that, he bounces back and forth between his turbo game style and long game style where he does much more analysis. On reread, I feel better about the real time interaction that I had with him which felt natural and villagery.

I've played with baudib more than anyone else on this site, and I feel I can read him ok.

My gut tells me that baudib is villa here.

Just in case there's any doubt, Rascal lays out perfectly why I'm a villager, besides the obvious villager stuff I've done, like put in 3x as much work as anyone in trying to figure out everyone, and clearing JKDS when he was my counterwagon most of the day.

[baudib]

Calling me dumb for voting you. Saying you trapped me, etc. I think you've been trying to bait me.

You even suggested that I not rescind you. It's like you're trying to get me to rethink that you're the wolf. I've made my read and I'm sticking with it.

If I'm wrong, then I apologize to the village.

don't worry I was probably voting you over Gabe, it was close but like 55-45

For the length of the game I thought Gabe was wolfier but it didn't make any sense for him to lynch Luco and kill Gator.

[lilrascal]

Just in case there's any doubt, Rascal lays out perfectly why I'm a villager, besides the obvious villager stuff I've done, like put in 3x as much work as anyone in trying to figure out everyone, and clearing JKDS when he was my counterwagon most of the day.

Quit putting words in my mouth. I've been suspicious of you all game. You didn't put in 3x as much work as anyone, you just posted more than anyone. Post count does not equal work.

The little bit of work you did do was in essentially lock clearing me, then doing the same to gabe to pocket us. As I said a little while ago, gator pointed it out to me, but I was still neutral on you.

[lilrascal]

don't worry I was probably voting you over Gabe, it was close but like 55-45

For the length of the game I thought Gabe was wolfier but it didn't make any sense for him to lynch Luco and kill Gator.

I agree and that's why I think you're the wolf.

[baudib]

Rascal, for future reference I actually don't pocket people as a wolf.

how many games do I play here where everyone says I'm being a dick, how would pocketing people fit in with that at all?

JFC

[baudib]

Quit putting words in my mouth. I've been suspicious of you all game. You didn't put in 3x as much work as anyone, you just posted more than anyone. Post count does not equal work.

The little bit of work you did do was in essentially lock clearing me, then doing the same to gabe to pocket us. As I said a little while ago, gator pointed it out to me, but I was still neutral on you.

When I thought I was being lynched, I literally went through 3 past games to show posts from people to compare them to how they were posting this game so other people could use that as reference after I was dead.

no one does that and no one especially does that as a wolf.

[lilrascal]

Rascal, for future reference I actually don't pocket people as a wolf.

how many games do I play here where everyone says I'm being a dick, how would pocketing people fit in with that at all?

JFC

Not everyone says that, just most of them. And pushing someone and then later saying that they're clear is pocketing IMO. It makes it look like you're actually trying to make a read. I just think you overdid it a bit this game.

[lilrascal]

When I thought I was being lynched, I literally went through 3 past games to show posts from people to compare them to how they were posting this game so other people could use that as reference after I was dead.

no one does that and no one especially does that as a wolf.

But, you did that to avoid your lynch when you kept saying you were OK to be lynched.

[baudib]

Rascal

I literally have ZERO motivation to try to figure out JKDS' alignment as a wolf because one of us is always dying that day.


I should be lock cleared after that for the rest of the game.

[lilrascal]

Rascal

I literally have ZERO motivation to try to figure out JKDS' alignment as a wolf because one of us is always dying that day.


I should be lock cleared after that for the rest of the game.

But, it's easy to lock clear someone when you're a wolf and then claim credit later, just like you're doing now.

[baudib]

Rascal, why do i back off baudib if im a wolf? What benefit did I have in even posting last night? Its so much easier to just do absolutely nothing and let baudib get lynched. So why didnt I? Wheres the benefit?

Ong says my hand is forced, but this situation only exists because Drew was nommed. So...the conclusion is I suck at picking nom targets, or put myself in this situation for fun. The conclusion is that I ignored killing gabe, even though he's been anti-jkds for awhile. The conclusion is that I deliberately left jkds-haters alive, who were also believed to be villagery, and also decided to help spread their credibility.

You must think im terrible.

This was JKDS to Rascal and I requoted it near EOD.

If Rascal is a villager he made this same mistake twice and paid no attention to this post.

but I'm pretty sure he's not.

I'm sitting here with 100% confidence that if Gabe is a villager he's never lynching me.

bad move Rascal.

[baudib]

I have to say I had this feeling you would pull this, too, Rascal.

Normally I would have told Gabe to vote you earlier but I wanted to give you the rope to hang yourself first.

[lilrascal]

This was JKDS to Rascal and I requoted it near EOD.

If Rascal is a villager he made this same mistake twice and paid no attention to this post.

but I'm pretty sure he's not.

I'm sitting here with 100% confidence that if Gabe is a villager he's never lynching me.

bad move Rascal.

He made that post after I left for the night and didn't get back before the lynch.