[5NL] JJ how often is he bluffing?

[mondayscool]

Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 9 Players

UTG+2: $3.82 (76.4 bb)
MP1: $1.93 (38.6 bb)
MP2: $5.18 (103.6 bb)
MP3: $6.92 (138.4 bb)
CO: $11.82 (236.4 bb)
BTN: $10.03 (200.6 bb)
SB: $5.17 (103.4 bb)
Hero (BB): $14.20 (284 bb)
UTG+1: $4.93 (98.6 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J J
UTG+1 calls $0.05, 2 folds, MP2 raises to $0.22, 4 folds, Hero calls $0.17, UTG+1 calls $0.17

Flop: ($0.68) T 8 5 (3 players)
Hero checks, UTG+1 checks, MP2 checks

Turn: ($0.68) 4 (3 players)
Hero bets $0.40, UTG+1 folds, MP2 raises to $1.20, Hero calls $0.80

River: ($3.08) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, MP2 bets $1.50, Hero ??

Villain is 18/14 positionally aware.

Basically at the time I thought he had to be bluffing like an AJ+ or KQ type hand as all of his pure value hands would have bet the flop, no?

Curious to see what others think.

Also my line in this hand I'm not sure if I should be 3betting in this spot pre or flatting... I'm sure both have their merits but looking back I think I should've 3bet.

[bikes]

he's never bluffing.


edit probably not never but not even close to even consider calling

[Cobra_1878]

I think I 3bet pre, I don't mind taking it down pre-flop, but if it does go to the flop we want the betting lead being OOP. We can then bet this flop, probably with the best hand, a good majority of the time and take it down.

AP = Donk the flop
AP = Fold river.

[bikes]

I think I 3bet pre, I don't mind taking it down pre-flop, but if it does go to the flop we want the betting lead being OOP. We can then bet this flop, probably with the best hand, a good majority of the time and take it down.

AP = Donk the flop
AP = Fold river.

what?

[Cobra_1878]

what?

Appendix?

[WeldPhaser]

I think Pre really depends on how strong villains ep open range is, and if you think mr limpy folds to ur 3b

Well, how big of a fish are we dealing w/ UTG+1, enough to make our villain widen his range to iso?

I wouldn't limit him to overcards on the flop. he may be scared to bet a monster after two checks. In either case fold turn.

Though I'm not a huge fan of it I could see donking this flop. We have no info on UTG+1, but the flop has probably

hit his range pretty well, and w/ a FD' up a 3/4 donk would price out the draws, and the response will help define ranges.

Villain will be hard pressed to ra' here w/ air.

Let me know what u guys think...

[kmind]

I think I 3bet pre, I don't mind taking it down pre-flop, but if it does go to the flop we want the betting lead being OOP. We can then bet this flop, probably with the best hand, a good majority of the time and take it down.

AP = Donk the flop
AP = Fold river.

3betting is +EV but I think calling is best. I also don't want folds when I have the best hand. And I would not lead the flop here as played. I'd c/c.

As far as the actual hand I fold turn but call river if I called turn.

[mondayscool]

he's never bluffing.


edit probably not never but not even close to even consider calling

What I came up with as to what your reasoning is:

- Bad board to bluff (like wtf could he rep)
- His turn and river sizing?
- Range, because of how bad the board is to bluff has to be mostly sets that either checked the flop or 44, and overpairs that decided to check the flop too. I think he would bet an FD or SD on the flop so I discount these a bit. Maybe some weird two pair hands in there as well.