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Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider
Intuitively, I just don't get it - I know it looks like an awful turn, but I know for sure I wouldn't c/f here. Maybe this thread will change that for me.
If we give him [QQ-22, AKs-ATs, AKo-AQo, KQs] to call preflop, and assume he continues on the flop with overpairs, sets and flush draws, then he's continuing 33% of the time, and gets to the turn with [QQ-TT, 99, 66, 22, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs]
Our equity against his complete turn range is 55%, but assuming he folds his flop overpairs that are lower than Queens, that is _all_ he folds - it's 46% of his range, and the rest is sets and flushes. [QdQc, QhQc, QhQd, JJ-TT, 9d9c, 9s9c, 9s9d, 6d6c, 6h6c, 6h6d, 2d2c, 2h2c, 2h2d, AsJs, AsTs]
So although I don't get it intuitively, I'm going to have to think about this hand, because I would almost certainly bleed money here if this range assignment is correct.
If he's tighter preflop and doesn't call to setmine with his smaller pairs, so we give him [QQ-99, AKs-ATs, AKo-AQo, KQs] on the flop, then flush draws, sets and overpairs are 44% of his range, everything else is air so unless he floats with air, 50% of his turn range is a set or a flush.
Aside from the overall strength of his turn range, what can he have that we'd even want to value bet against? All that's left that we beat is JJ, TT and even with a spade they are unlikely to continue.
So we can't bet the turn for value, but he can't have too many hands that need to bluff, so unless he turns JJ/TT into a bluff like always, we're more likely to be getting value owned when we c/c turn.
Playing with yet another option for his preflop range, let's give him something quite loose like [QQ-22, A2s+, AJo+, KTs+, KQo, QTs+, JTs], now sets, overpairs and flush draws are about a quarter of his range on the flop, if he continues with these, so sees the turn with:
[QdQc, QhQc, QhQd, JJ-TT, 9d9c, 9s9c, 9s9d, 6d6c, 6h6c, 6h6d, 2d2c, 2h2c, 2h2d, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As5s, As4s, As3s, JsTs]
Now nearly 70% of his range is sets or flushes, and again only JJ/TT are left that he might bluff with.
In the absence of a read that he's likely to float air, or turn JJ/TT into a bluff, I think we c/f.
Someone tell me I'm wrong, because I just don't get it, but OTOH I don't get a lot of things - I guess that's why I'm still a micros player.
Originally Posted by BorisTheSpider
Intuitively, I just don't get it - I know it looks like an awful turn, but I know for sure I wouldn't c/f here. Maybe this thread will change that for me.
If we give him [QQ-22, AKs-ATs, AKo-AQo, KQs] to call preflop, and assume he continues on the flop with overpairs, sets and flush draws, then he's continuing 33% of the time, and gets to the turn with [QQ-TT, 99, 66, 22, AsQs, AsJs, AsTs]
Our equity against his complete turn range is 55%, but assuming he folds his flop overpairs that are lower than Queens, that is _all_ he folds - it's 46% of his range, and the rest is sets and flushes. [QdQc, QhQc, QhQd, JJ-TT, 9d9c, 9s9c, 9s9d, 6d6c, 6h6c, 6h6d, 2d2c, 2h2c, 2h2d, AsJs, AsTs]
So although I don't get it intuitively, I'm going to have to think about this hand, because I would almost certainly bleed money here if this range assignment is correct.
If he's tighter preflop and doesn't call to setmine with his smaller pairs, so we give him [QQ-99, AKs-ATs, AKo-AQo, KQs] on the flop, then flush draws, sets and overpairs are 44% of his range, everything else is air so unless he floats with air, 50% of his turn range is a set or a flush.
Aside from the overall strength of his turn range, what can he have that we'd even want to value bet against? All that's left that we beat is JJ, TT and even with a spade they are unlikely to continue.
So we can't bet the turn for value, but he can't have too many hands that need to bluff, so unless he turns JJ/TT into a bluff like always, we're more likely to be getting value owned when we c/c turn.
Playing with yet another option for his preflop range, let's give him something quite loose like [QQ-22, A2s+, AJo+, KTs+, KQo, QTs+, JTs], now sets, overpairs and flush draws are about a quarter of his range on the flop, if he continues with these, so sees the turn with:
[QdQc, QhQc, QhQd, JJ-TT, 9d9c, 9s9c, 9s9d, 6d6c, 6h6c, 6h6d, 2d2c, 2h2c, 2h2d, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As5s, As4s, As3s, JsTs]
Now nearly 70% of his range is sets or flushes, and again only JJ/TT are left that he might bluff with.
In the absence of a read that he's likely to float air, or turn JJ/TT into a bluff, I think we c/f.
Someone tell me I'm wrong, because I just don't get it, but OTOH I don't get a lot of things - I guess that's why I'm still a micros player.
Nice analysis Boris..
We have to look of what is our range for betting turn? - And compare it to V's calling range on the turn and also look at different river scenarios that occurs imo. I might to a CREV-sim when I'am home and upload it FWIW.
How do you Guys think of this approach to find the highest EV line?
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