Interesting spot in Pineapple: Go for flush draw?

[baudib]

I thought this was a genuinely tough decision:
Player 1 (Dealer)




Player 2




I'm player 2 and on my first pull I get

As my opponent already has a huge lead in race for FL, what do I do here? I could go for 4 diamonds on the bottom, or I could go for a pair of 10s on bottom and 5s in the middle. I think this frees me up to just go for FL, whereas if I go for 4 diamonds, I'm pretty much stuck putting a K,Q,2 diamonds on the bottom. Thoughts?

[MadMojoMonkey]

I'm currently adjusting my thought process to match something you hinted at here, and that I've mentioned in another thread.

The value of Aces, Kings and Queens is such that placing them into a straight or a flush is generally a bad idea. As such, going for a straight bigger than J-high is generally a mistake. Also, it means that when you're counting outs for a flush, you really should count 3 less than you would in other poker games.

So, the value of the flush is the same, but the ability to achieve it is diminished.

Also, when you play 2-pair hands, you have a kicker, which can be useful to burn a card on a draw when you want to keep other hands open. With a straight or flush, you have no "extra" spots to absorb less-than-perfect draws.


***
I think making the pairs of T's and 5's is the strongest play for FL, but setting the 4-flush is a medium-value, low-risk play.

In an endless game, the play for FL is probably the best in the long run, but in a tournament or limited number of games, playing for safe points is much better.

[OneByPhi]

Mostly I want to echo MMM, but I'd also add that since I place a big emphasis on making FL, I would strongly lean toward placing the T on the bottom and the 5 in the mid. The 4 points for the flush are nice, but 4 points is relative peanuts compared to the bonus for making an FL pair on top plus the value of FL. Your draw cards are all fully live except for the 8. I think your prospects for FL are pretty good.

But even if you play the 2 diamonds low, you aren't necessarily committed to playing ANY diamond low on the next draw. Say you set the 2 diamonds low on the first draw, and your next draw is KT2. I think making KK on top and a pair in the middle is probably better than playing the k low and the 2 in the mid. In the first route, your FL pair is made, and you still have 7 outs to the flush on the bottom, and two 2s, two 5s and the chance of drawing or backdooring a pair in the mid. Conversely, the second route gives you a made flush but greatly reduces your chance of making FL.

[sam1FTR]

Definitely agree with MMM, if this was later in the hand, we could see how close your opponent was to making FL or missetting, and that would influence the decision as well.

As it is though, I think I am going to play the pair on bottom and pair in middle, and hope to backdoor into FL

[Eric]

I like the case for setting 4 to a flush here.


Since our opponent is showing A, we have 8 more diamond outs to complete. We're getting 3 more draws (9 more cards) so our chances of completing the 4 flush are:
= 1 - (31*30*29*28*27*26*25*24*23)/(39*38*37*36*35*34*33*32*31)
= 1 - 7,315,688,016,000/76,899,763,100,160
~ 1 - 7.3/76.9
~ 1 - .0949
~ 90.5% (hopefully MMM can verify this)


Discarding one of our mid outs was a problem but the flush in back creates opportunites. For example, we can now get trips in the middle which would be a foul if we only had 2 pairs in back.

As my opponent already has a huge lead in race for FL, what do I do here? I could go for 4 diamonds on the bottom, or I could go for a pair of 10s on bottom and 5s in the middle. I think this frees me up to just go for FL, whereas if I go for 4 diamonds, I'm pretty much stuck putting a K,Q,2 diamonds on the bottom. Thoughts?

If we get the flush then chances are we'll get one of the other 5 flush cards before or on the same draw as one of the 3 flush cards you mentioned above (K,Q,2 diamonds).

[MadMojoMonkey]

Yes, if you count all 8 live diamonds as outs, then there are 8 outs, and that comes to 90.5% to draw at least 1 over the coming 9 cards.

If you would play the K or Q to the top, then you have 6 outs to a flush, which comes to 81.8% to draw at least one of them.

If you'd play a pair to the mid before completing the flush (2), then there are 5 outs, and that comes to 75.3%.