Flopped set of Qs Bad ending

[ManchesterUnited]

Full Tilt, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players

UTG: $122.44 (489.8 bb)
MP: $25.25 (101 bb)
CO: $35.09 (140.4 bb)
Hero (BTN): $41.13 (164.5 bb)
SB: $19.25 (77 bb)
BB: $75.59 (302.4 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q Q
2 folds, CO raises to $0.75, Hero raises to $2.60, 2 folds, CO calls $1.85

Flop: ($5.55) 4 9 Q (2 players)
CO checks, Hero bets $3.28, CO raises to $7.50, Hero calls $4.22

Turn: ($20.55) J (2 players)
CO bets $24.99, Hero calls $24.99

River: ($70.53) 8 (2 players)

Results: $70.53 pot ($3.00 rake)
Final Board: 4 9 Q J 8
CO showed 8 T and won $67.53 ($32.44 net)
Hero showed Q Q and lost (-$35.09 net)

[OngBonga]

Shove flop over his raise, not remotely close. This is a 3bet pot, there's a very good chance he has a set, also he has plenty of straight and flush draws that we do not want to let see a free turn. He's committed to call a lot of his draws. Fistpump all in.

Also, note that this guy will r/c T8s and raise his gutshots on the flop.

[ManchesterUnited]

That raise on the flop confused me. I thought maybe he had a smaller set or 2 pair or a flush draw. Never imagined it could be a gutshot.

[OngBonga]

That raise on the flop confused me. I thought maybe he had a smaller set or 2 pair or a flush draw. Never imagined it could be a gutshot.

If he has a set or 2pr, he's calling a shove, because you have AA/KK a lot more often than QQ. If he has a flush draw, you're letting him see a free turn by calling his raise, when shoving gets maximum value from a drawing hand that just committed himself. And yeah he probably very rarely has a gutshot here, but raising it is a lot better than calling it, seeing as you'll fold AK and maybe even nitfold AQ. Sure he very likely folds his gutshot when you shove, which isn't what we want. However, he has a gutshot so rarely compared to hand he calls with that shoving flop is easily the best move here. I'd be a lot more inclined to flat this raise if this was a rainbow flop.

[Savy]

Flatting raise seems fine otf, calling shove also seems fine.

[OngBonga]

The only reason I can think of to flat call flop is to allow him to bluff later streets, but really, how often is he going to continue to airball ace high or whatever when we call a monster flop raise? I do not expect him to continue to put money into the pot with anything under top pair, other than his 8outer+ draws obv, and I'd question if he likes his AQ when we call flop raise on the rare occasion he has it. There's just no point in calling the flop, it's slow playing the nuts vs a range that is stacked with draws and we gain no value in return for taking this risk.

Calling flop is all risk and no reward.

[Savy]

Care to explain what you think he raises the flop with.

Also you're just assuming he is GII w/any flush draws he has which is wrong.

[OngBonga]

Care to explain what you think he raises the flop with.

Also you're just assuming he is GII w/any flush draws he has which is wrong.

Well I haven't crunched the numbers but I would imagine that his raise commits him to calling all draws except the one he has. If I'm wrong well that might change things. He's obviously not getting the right price to take on our hand, but we don't have a hand from his pov, we have a range, and I think I'd be calling my flush draws in his spot against what I perceived to be QQ+.

I think he raises the flop with 44 99 Q9s TJs and any hearts he has. He's gonna have gutshots and air a non zero % of the time, AQ KQ occasionally too if he's aggressive. I think he folds his gutshots and air to a shove (which he shuts down with anyway unless he binks), while he calls the rest.

I guess we can call to allow his pocket pair bluffs to hit a set very occasionally. Ok there's some real thin value in calling flop. But he's drawing on a flush or straight a lot more often than a set, so I am never ever calling this flop bet after he makes this raise.

[Farseer]

WP, bad luck that he had such unlikely hand. He would've probably pushed in turn same way with any remaining draws, maybe not counting those which included J.

Shoving on flop would probably just get rid of those hand he would later bluff with. Your QQ also blocks top pairs very effectively, which diminish his value range only to 44/99.

[boutron]

A few days late on reading this, but I don't think there is any question at all here. I just think OngBonga is 100% correct. His range is so overwhelmingly sets and strong/combo draws that you gain nothing by letting him see another card for anything less than the maximum. Unless you know he is just a complete maniac, and I mean one of the worst, you are never inducing a bluff here.

Sure, a LAG cbets into me when I have a set on a dry board, I'm not raising so I can get more bluffs out of him. But, that ain't this hand. This is a strong check/raise on a draw heavy board. Once you call, the chances that you will get another bluff are dwarfed by the chances that you are not charging a draw the maximum or not getting the most value in a set over set situation.

Something no one has mentioned is an action-killing turn. Let's assume you've got set over set. Get the money in now! If the Th turns, you very well may not get paid off. No, there is just too much to lose and so very little to gain by not shoving this flop.

I have a suspicion that if we hadn't seen the result and just stopped the hand on the flop action, everyone would want the OP to shove. Don't get thrown off by the absolutely bizarre portion of the villain's range that he actually had.

[griffey24]

I think you played it fine. If he has a flush draw on the flop, he's going to raise call anyhow. So yes you're "charging him" but it doesn't really change the result if you jam.

By contrast, if you call and a heart peels we will call a shove anyhow and a flush card turning might induce some bluff shoves.

You played it optimally imo.