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Originally Posted by dontezuma
Well, I donked the flop to chase out AX, KX, QX, etc., and rep a made hand. Frankly, if I fold out AK here, I' m not too upset. Call me chicken $hit, but if he's going to suck out and catch his 6-outer (which is what I had him on), I want to charge him. Also, I figure if I donk, and he calls, I can check a turn and maybe get a free shot at turning trips on the river.
I' m limping here because I had been raising medium pairs early like this and either getting 3-bet off, or hitting 2-over flops and losing out to bets on those flops.
I was essentially setmining here. I do mix in raises, but I don't alway raise. Should I?
The logic in this post is pretty incorrect in quite a few aspects. First and foremost, regarding the limping, I hate to say 'always" in poker, but you should be opening a hand as strong as 99 like 99% of the time. Especially when you have a player as bad as this villain behind you calling with loads of worse hands.
Second, if your reasoning for donking the flop is to "scare out Ax, Kx, Qx, {insert other worse hands}", then this is also incorrect logic. Betting to have those hands make an mistake in calling is the correct way to look at it if you are considering donking here. You want those hands to call when they are doing so incorrectly. If the call is -EV, and they don't make it, then they are not making a mistake, and therefore you are not gaining the most EV as possible (note you are gaining because they will have some equity in the pot, and by folding they no longer have any equity. However, them making an incorrect call is going to be a better outcome for you).
Second, you say you are "putting him on a hand with 6 outs". This is once against faulty logic, and leads you to playing your hands in a manner that while okay against that portion of his range, totally neglects his entire range. Villain raised a limper preflop IP. He very likely has a pretty wide range here. Hands such as TT+, sets, 2 pairs, flush draws, straight draws, should not be overlooked, only to focus on his overcards. Instead make a decision that will maximize against his entire range.
To be honest, I don't know what to do on the flop. This is a situation I've never been in (limp/calling OOP). Given stack sizes, I probably just c/r, or donk/call as you did. Leaning towards the c/r because players just love to bet when checked to nowadays, and they aren't very discriminate when it comes to board textures.
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