QQ overpair on twotone board vs nit

[daven]

villain is 14-8-2, 56% fold to flop cbet, 33% fold to turn cbet, close to 0% raise cbet
his calling range pre is something like 22-QQ, Axs, some suited connectors and broadways, some AT/AJ/AQ
he doesn't raise draws in spots like this
he probably thinks i'm a little bit loose

flop and turn i feel like there is clear value to be had, is this too optimistic? once the river bricks he'll be giving up with his draws etc, river play?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (7 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php

SB ($24.15)
BB ($28.48)
UTG ($24.23)
MP1 ($27.06)
Hero (MP2) ($103.87)
CO ($45.21)
Button ($9.31)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q, Q
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.85, 2 folds, SB calls $0.75, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.95) 9, 7, 2 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $1.36, SB calls $1.36

Turn: ($4.67) 7 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $3.50, SB calls $3.50

River: ($11.67) 6 (2 players)
SB checks,

[ColdDecked]

I'm still going to bet for value ~7.50 here, especially if he thinks that we're too loose. What's your vbetting range if you're planning on checking this behind?

[ST3]

I would check his river call efficiency or WTSD before betting but he has pretty low fold to flop/turn cbet stats so he may be a station post.

Looking at his preflop calling range I can't see too many SC's with him being a 14/8, do you have a positional VPIP %?

I think betting ~$4-$6 here trying to pick up calls from TT & JJ is ok, anything bigger and I think we're only getting looked up by better hands.

I actually prefer just checking back here, the only real hands he's calling are TT & JJ and the majority of his range is made flushes, boats and hands which missed (AcQ-Ac8, KcQ/KcJ, QcJ) aren't calling a bet.

[rong]

I agree with the new dude but at the time I'd prob b/f 6.50.

[Icanhastreebet]

If you think river bet is too optimistic you should just bet like pot and pot everything better plus all your hands that can't win at showdown. Edited: this is probably wrong since we probably have too many turn bluffs but my phone is about to die so I take a better lOok later on.

[TeUnit]

I think you have to bet for value here.

I wouldt expect him to have many suited combos in his range given his stats.

Think you also want to protect your hand against combos that have a club.

Stacks look fairly deep so you dont want him to draw out cheaply.

[surviva316]

If you think river bet is too optimistic you should just bet like pot and pot everything better plus all your hands that can't win at showdown.

What do you think our turn bluffing range looks like?

[ST3]

I think you have to bet for value here.

I wouldt expect him to have many suited combos in his range given his stats.

Think you also want to protect your hand against combos that have a club.

Stacks look fairly deep so you dont want him to draw out cheaply.

What do you think his calling range looks like?

[Icanhastreebet]

What do you think our turn bluffing range looks like?

I think it's better to figure out what our value range looks like and then construct a bluffing range so of course I don't know because I'm not hero

[surviva316]

So then what's the bottom of our vbet range? I would think ~JJ no club, which would give us 45-50 combos of value hands (or at least hands that we would bet this amount; maybe we split our range and do a small bet with ~10 combos of TT-, with some of our flush+ combos and some combos of bluffs). As an unexploitable strategy, then, we can bluff like 60 combos (if we don't split our range), which should be sustainable since ~half of our value range is flush+ hands and a lot of our bluffing range is NFDs (pretty much draws to the effective nuts because it's tough to think of FH combos that are in villain's range).

So even though the turn is a terrible bluff card, we can still continue with all AcXx, our best SDs and some KcXx assuming that villain will snap fold any pair worse than top pair and have a tough decision with A9-? Not sure how I did there, but I thought I'd go for it.

[Icanhastreebet]

Bluffing 60 combos is absurd no matter what you are betting. If you are splitting your betting range(assuming you have different sizes) that means you should have 2 different bluffing frequencies for both different bet size.

[jackvance]

If you are splitting your betting range that means you should have 2 different bluffing frequencies for both different bet size.

Is this in general what splitting a range refers to?

[surviva316]

Bluffing 60 combos is absurd no matter what you are betting.

This is what I was inclined to think, which is why I was so uncertain of my conclusions.

If you are splitting your betting range(assuming you have different sizes) that means you should have 2 different bluffing frequencies for both different bet size.

Yeah, my conclusion was based on the assumption that we have no sizing or timing tells whatsoever. Maybe just the mere fact that we'll bet 2/3+ PSB with part of our range and bet 1/2- PSB with another part of our range is enough to resolve the issue right there. This really is a spot where you have some invulnerable hands that might bet smaller and have some thin vbet hands that might also bet smaller for vbet-ish/protection-ish, so the assumption is especially impractical here.

[rpm]

i always sucked at playing mono boards without the nuts, so i'll limit my contribution to this thread to saying: isn't that a monotone flop? not twotone?

[Icanhastreebet]

The first question we should ask hero is what does he get to the flop/turn/river with.

Edit: The first question is river then you can work backwards from their if we end up having a problem on the river like not having enough bluffs in our range.

[d0zer]

once the river bricks he'll be giving up with his draws

yeah but so much of the {better} range will have raised by now

[surviva316]

yeah but so much of the {better} range will have raised by now

Yeah, our range is just so far ahead of his that whatever our plan for our entire range is, it should involve a fucktonne of betting. It's tough to think of hands that are ahead of this specific hand, much less the ~36 combos of better hands in our range. So just bet all the hands that he has a hard time beating (including QQ) and bluff a balanced amount, and even if he plays perfectly we're still printing money.