[5NL] JJ OTB in squeezed pot

[Mury]

MP: $3.12 (62.4 bb) {65/13, 64 hands}
CO: $7.52 (150.4 bb) {41/29, 1/2 fold to 3b, 34 hands}
Hero (BTN): $5 (100 bb)
SB: $5.19 (103.8 bb)
BB: $5 (100 bb) {21/19, 3.8% 3b, this is his first squeeze, 4/10 CB, 149 hands}
UTG: $5.60 (112 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with J J
UTG folds, MP calls $0.05, CO raises to $0.20, Hero calls $0.20, SB folds, BB raises to $0.65, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.45

Flop: ($1.57) T 4 T (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $1

I'm having a lot of trouble analyzing this hand... for some reason my analysis is completely biased this time by knowing the result of this hand, so I'll try to keep that out of what I post here.

So if villain squeezes QQ+ AK we should probably just fold pre, right?

Flop he checks which makes me want to weight his range pretty heavily towards AK, but given his relatively low CB (small sample though) he could check QQ, KK sometimes here too. My question is basically what is the point in betting here if he only calls with one worse combo (AcKc) that happens to have a dickload of equity? Are we just betting to protect ourselves from being draw out on? Or should we just be checking back in this situation?

I did a little analysis where I assumed he checks his entire range here, X/R 9 combos of QQ+, folds 15 combos of AK, calls 9 combos of QQ+, and assumed the flop is in a vaccuum.

1.57(0.44)
-1(0.26)
(2.57)(0.3)(0.12)
(-1)(0.3)(0.88)

The eV for the bet under these conditions is +0.26...


Thoughts?

[Savy]

3bet pre, not really sure why you didn't tbh.

I think it's unrealistic for villain to check many his combos of QQ+ on the flop. I think it's also unrealistic for villain to decide to x/c half of them too. I also don't think you're folding out AK very often at all by betting unless villain is very fit/fold.

I don't particularly see any point in betting this flop especially as big as you made it.

[OngBonga]

Yeah this is a clear 3bet vs the guy who opened, and if BB 4bets, it's a clear fold.

As played, I think fold pre to 3bet, this guy isn't 3betting wide, I'm giving him QQ+ AK. We're not getting good setmining odds so we can only call if we're holding up well against his range, which I don't think we are.

And yeah after he checks flop, just check back, we're not getting calls from anything worse and his range is top heavy, so we're just gifting him money a lot of the time. He can certainly check QQ+ on this flop, he could be planning to c/r, expecting you to bet if you have a pocket pair or flush draw. He could easily have AA with club, blocking nut flush draw and greatly reducing the number of flush draws in your range.

But ok you bet. If he raises, pretty easy fold, and if he calls, we're checking back turn and reassessing river. If he donks turn, probably fold.

[STILL_mkd]

I think that you played well preflop. About the flop I really don't know why the villain check, it's confusing for me.
The moves that he made looks like he has AK, re-raise about 3xCOraise preflop, and then check on the flop. That's my first guess, and the other is that maybe the villain has QQ+ or TT and waiting you.
I don't know, I think that the lot of this will depend about the next move of the villain. If he raise you go fold, and if he only call then everything will depend about the turn and about his move on the turn. If he raise more than $1, go fold, and if he again go check and it will be dealt lower card than Q, then bet to $1.