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Originally Posted by The Bean Counter
Yeah, doesn't make a whole lot of sense does it? But I kind of like that against regs. Thinking it through (and rather worryingly), I only have a chk/jamming range on this board on the turn which includes a ton of semi bluffs and nuts as the complete air in my pre-flop 3betting range chk/folds the flop. My thinking is that nearly every reg will bet this turn when checked to with the majority of their range but fold to a chk/jam, so I can see the error in my logic with the nutted part of my range. If turn checks through then I'd chk/jam the majority of rivers as I'd expect all regs to bluff or bet and call off the value part of their range as they hate to think they are being bluffed.
I think I give free cards a little bit too often in the hope of somehow squeezing an extra street of value out, given that well over half the deck is fine in all likelihood and villain is either chk/folding or chk/jamming. I could definitely do with betting a bit more in those spots.
On this board, villain can have 9T, JT, QJ, KQ, AQ, JJ calling the flop, plus any other Tx like AT. 88, TT, QQ, QT are probably raising the flop.
Of the above hands, almost the entire range that called the flop may very well call this particular turn again, maybe 9T/AT drops out and folds, but JT, QJ, KQ, AQ, JJ will likely call again. When you check, AQ and KQ will bet, while 9T/AT/JT/QJ/JJ will check back. AQ and KQ MIGHT b/c a turn jam, but AQ will call a turn bet and river jam anyhow.
So you're going for a c/bomb line to ONLY gain value from the percentage of time that KQ 1. DOES bet turn 2. Does call your jam after betting, because if they are b/f you get one street which is the same result as betting 3. Does b/c turn and would have otherwise folded to a river triple barrel run-out, like in this instance when an Ace rivers.
Meanwhile you're losing a street from all of: AT, TJ, JJ, QJ, and now you're checking the river again (to ck bomb), so all of those hands are actually getting a showdown for free after the flop, instead of having to pay two streets. Not only are you losing a street or two of value, you're giving all those hands that have a pair + straight draw a free ride to their 15-20% equity on the turn.
coles notes: you are NOT squeezing any extra value out by going for a c/r on the turn. You are only gaining value from KQ some small % of the time, while losing value against all of their other combos.
Really I think it's more likely you are c/bombing turn to avoid a difficult decision on the river after you bet.
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