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Poker Stars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - Poker Stars Converter Tool from http://www.flopturnriver.com/
Hero (CO) ($5.79)
Button ($5.20)
SB ($5.53)
BB ($5.26)
UTG ($14.33)
MP ($4.80)
Preflop: Hero is CO with A, 5
2 folds, Hero raises $0.15, 2 folds, BB calls $0.10
Flop: ($0.32) 4, 2, 10 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero ??
Villain's stats - 22/16/31/74/5.2/50/- over 325 hands.
HUD layout - vpip/pfr/steal%/Fsteal%/3bet/cbet/fold to cbet
Villain's preflop range: JJ-66,AQs-ATs,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,AQo-ATo,KTo+,QTo+,JTo - 200 combos
My preflop range: 22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,43s ,32s,ATo+,KTo+,QTo+,JTo - 302 combos
Villain's flop continuing range 1: JJ-66,ATs,KTs,QTs,JTs,T9s,ATo,KTo,QTo,JTo = folding 52%
Villain's flop continuing range 2: JJ-66,AQs,ATs,KTs,QTs,JTs,T9s,AQo,ATo,KTo,QTo,JTo = folding 45%
Villain's flop continuing range 3: JJ-66,AQs-ATs,KTs,QTs,JTs,T9s,AQo-ATo,KTo,QTo,JTo = folding 38.5%
Unless villain's calling 100% of the time with Ahigh I can bet 2/3 pot profitably on this flop with atc. So I pretty much have to bet A5s suited here.
Anyway now I want to look at my range.
My +EV value bets are: TT, 44, 22, AA-JJ, AT-QT
My strongest to weakest semi-bluffs are: 65s, A5s, A3s, then probably my two pair draws? Actually they might have reverse implied odds well the A4s A2s at least.
If villain is folding in the region of 40-50% is it a good idea to check my TT 44 22 sometimes or just go for three streets since I'm going to be attacking those flops a lot?
Here's how I think I should play my range in this spot.
Value bet: TT 75%, 44 75%. 22 75%, AA-JJ, AT-QT
Check: TT 25%, 44 25%, 22 25%, JT, 99-55, 22, A4s, A2s
Semi-bluff: All gutshots, overcards, backdoor straightdraws/fds, 54s 43s, 32s
Thoughts?
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