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Point 37 The Secret of Macbeth
"Fair is foul and foul is fair,
Hover through the fog and filthy air."
When trying to get reads on people, especially online, you often only have the table position, the size of the bet, and the action to that point to make a judgement.
Now most reads are fairly straightfoward. A rarely benign 3X BB bet that says i have top pair here or a standard raise of 3X BB before the flop which says i have a nice hand i want to play for more money. What Macbeth can teach us is, what if it doesnt make sense?
For example, the flop checks around, you bet the turn when another rag comes off and the button pumps it up. It doesnt make sense, it stinks, why didn't he bet the flop if he had something? Well here is your foul and filthy air, he flopped a joint and is just waiting for you. But you say, there is nothing out there, no straights, no flushes, what could he have? He has a set, he probably had it on the flop and he is just waiting to shove it down your throat.
Another example, you have AQ on the button, a couple of callers, your raise 3x the BB, and the guy under the gun raises 9X the BB. Fair is foul my friend, you just ran into pocket rockets just waiting for you to pay him off. One might say, I have an ace, the odds of him having aces are miniscule. Rather like the statistician who drowns in the river with an average depth of 3 feet.
Here's another, you flop 2 pair with a 3 flush on board, you bet, flat call, check the turn, he checks behind you. You bet the river and blam, he goes all in. Now your faced with big decision. Does he really have the flush and would he be that patient? The answer is yes and yes, and yes you do it too. More than that it is the ace high flush, because he wouldnt want to let you draw to the ace for free.
Another one, you are playing at a table, and suddenly someone puts in a huge preflop bet. He has not played a thing and all of a sudden, he acts like he has aces and doesnt want action. Right on both accounts. He has aces and he is scared of another bad beat.
Conversely, it is pretty easy to figure out who is bluffing with their big bets. They play a lot of hands and show some of them down. Just dont be the one they show down to when they finally get something. If everytime a person plays a hand and you find yourelf wishing you could play too, that is your bluffer.
When you go off to battle with a bluffer, make sure you at least take your .22 caliber. He may only have a sling shot but that still beats a lot of hot air and insults. Many people make the mistake of joining in the party, with inferior hands just trying to get a piece of the pie.
Reading a bluffer is easier than one might think, they bet all their bad hands and will checkraise their good ones. So as long as they are betting you are safe, but once they slow down, watch out. The foul is now fair.
The essense of making good reads is recognizing when you deviate from the norms. Most hands are won by pairs, with small pots or preflop raises that go uncalled. When you get to the land of big bets, you got to use you head.
Regards,
Soupie
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