***Werewolf Winter Olympics OK GAME ON***

[jackvance]

And Big Red, you said Gator didn't know how I would react. But he was already playing against me from the get-go, this is what I post:

Haha it's Gator and Dan. I was waiting to see if Gator might contest the big red wolf claim but he didn't.

Keith, if you bold me we are insta-GG'd because I am seriously a villager!

Now, as I said, I thought Gator was the angel from his behavior near the end, and Big Red pretty much insta-posted his angel outting and bolded, it could be a ploy to beat the real angel to the punch, no? I think Keith thought the same because he took his time to decide and asked if there was another angel outting. It's pretty much a villager reaction to remain suspicious and not take anything for granted. Yet Gator was already oddly 100% sure and even used my (normal imo) suspicion to cast doubt on me leading up to today:

What? Why would Bigred all of a sudden come out and say he was the angel if he wasn't? It's not like he was about to be lynched. It's quite apparent now that you have been using vague logic and a ton of posting all along to get us to go with your thoughts, and it almost worked. Unfortunately it isn't working any more.

[Keith]

Also I honestly think it is near impossible to type out my thoughts the way I have and be a wolf, atleast if I have to stay consistent with myself. Why do you think wolves have a habit of staying so quiet, it's because it is so easy to give yourself away if you have something to hide. But if you think me capable of this sort of stunt, thx I guess..

This obviously depends on the players.Werewolf mulligan , me warpe and jkds were extremely active as wolves and i was making long posts, but an awful lot of thought went into it and planning in the wolf forum so that we didnt get ourselves boxed into corners , and we sacrificed the compromised wolves mercilessly.

[GatorJH]

Then again , where did surviva get that hidden login info, from gator or did he spot it when he reset his pm profile settings.

I can guarantee you he didn't get it from me cuz I STILL haven't figured out half of the stuff in the new format. It took me 3 pages into the game just to figure out how to subscribe to the damn thread.

Also, please don't take my lack of posting a ton of stuff as being "confident", I just feel that, at this point in the game, there should be plenty of info for you and Bigred to analyze and I don't want to clutter all of that by trying to point you in specific directions.

[jackvance]

Jack reacted badly to my bringing back the seer suggestion as it would have seriously hampered the wolves.

The reason we have not lost yet is because the angel stayed hidden. If Big Red had come out we would have lost after the Warpe lynch probably. The exact argument I posted was that if the wolves try to eat the angel it is so huge it outweighs the benefits, and that's what happened in this game.

[GatorJH]

Gator was pretty anti the outing the angel suggestion.

The reason we have not lost yet is because the angel stayed hidden.

Like I said back when we were discussing this, I am not all that versed on game theory like you younger guys are I just rely on my logical thought process and my logical thought process led me to believe it wasn't +ev for the angel to out himself.

[jackvance]

I can't see Gator letting dan claim not to be the seer and then try to claim to be the seer unless it was to give himself protection. I think Jack is inexperienced enough together with the other known wolves playing as wolves to realise that what might seem a great play today may look horrendous a couple of days later when more confirmed information comes out.

Dan already said in the other thread he cooked this up himself. If I had had anything to do with it I would have let him out asap and point out how fast Big Red posted and insta-bolded, clearly to beat him to the punch. If I was a wolf that was an "allin" I could have backed, not the things he cooked up now that probably weren't going to convince Keith the swing voter anyway.

Oh and about me pushing for a Warpe lynch, a lot of villagers did, and they all got offed one by one. Not unreasonable that this was worth pursuing right? If I was a wolf and my plan had been to get Warpe killed on day 5, I would have never nommed Boog btw, as he wanted Warpe dead, I would have killed someone who was on the fence, to have a better chance of succeeding. I think they were offing everyone that wanted Warpe dead to keep him alive because he was pretty much vouching for Gator, so Gator and Dan just coasted along feigning confusion, even pointing at me at one time, and when they finally had their majority (after Big Red's post), they both insta went for it.

[GatorJH]

On the day Warpe was lynched you and he were both on the hot seat. You are saying I jumped on a Warpe lynch just to point a finger at you later? Really? The same thing could be said for Keith if he weren't a confirmed villager.

PS - Posting on my blackberry so the above is from memory.

[GatorJH]

forgot to add in the above that at that time Warpe had me in his "confirmed villager" list so killing him (as a wolf) when the number of villagers was dwindling doesn't make a ton of sense to me unless, again, I am pulling a massive level on the village, which I am not.

[jackvance]

On the day Warpe was lynched you and he were both on the hot seat. You are saying I jumped on a Warpe lynch just to point a finger at you later? Really? The same thing could be said for Keith if he weren't a confirmed villager.

That is not what I said at all.. you and Dan were acting confused, but when Big Red showed up you both went for it asap.

[Keith]

Haha it's Gator and Dan. I was waiting to see if Gator might contest the big red wolf claim but he didn't.

Keith, if you bold me we are insta-GG'd because I am seriously a villager!

What? Why would Bigred all of a sudden come out and say he was the angel if he wasn't? It's not like he was about to be lynched. It's quite apparent now that you have been using vague logic and a ton of posting all along to get us to go with your thoughts, and it almost worked. Unfortunately it isn't working any more.

Because the only one that was a confirmed villager at this point for me, was in fact Keith. Warpe being a villager shows my whole case against them was bogus and he was simply being genuine. So with noone contesting the big red angel claim, there's only 2 people left, you Gator, and Dan.

so at this stage jack is saying that he accepts that Bigred is the angel.

Well if he is a wolf then the way this thread is panning out shows exactly why he would do it.

Gator & Keith - DO NOT LYNCH ME! I'm a villager goddamit!

In fact it makese more sense if JV & Bigred are the wolves, if one of you lynches me this is all over.

In fact, if Bigred & JV are wolves, then one of you two must be the angel, cos I'm not. So if one of you is the angel, you know I'm not lying, cos if I'm a wolf, then Bigred is the angel, so if one of you is the angel, I must be telling the truth!

Seriously, do not lynch me! I'm a villager!

Question - why does Dan need me and gator not to lynch him when we now know he is the wolf, from the way i crucified dan yesterday his logic was crap and he wasn't planning forward. If Jack is the villager he also needs him not to vote for him , but he knows jack isn't going to vote for him if jack is the wolf .

To gator:
Wrong. The fact that you bolded me and the game isn't over yet, proves one of us two is the last wolf. Keith is hereby officially confirmed as a villager. { using this logic it also means bigred is angel as Jack was saying Dan was a wolf}


It's trivially obvious. The wolves need *one* villager to vote wrong and band to win. A confirmed villager voted for Dan. Game is not over although everyone who can still be a wolf is on, and would have banded on the villager already, so Dan has to be a wolf now.

Dan arguing that bigred is a wolf in the absence of any other angel candidates combined with sealing the warpe lynch I can only think you are the wolf.

the second wolf is whats bugging me. Alll game Gator has been making subtle wolf allegations against me whereas jack has been making more overt wolf allegations against me.

now i start to post some suspicion of Gator and no posts for a couple of hours and then Dan makes his angel claim

Ok Dan I actually believe you but ffs why didn't you rag on Big Red IMMEDIATELY, I mean I was suspicious on his haste and insta-bold and waiting for someone to counter-claim, my god why didn't you do that, it is SERIOUS fail, I see you were giving subtle hints now but that is not enough. Well atleast you didn't play me like a fiddle then . I always figured you were a villager because you pretty much started with the same opening statement as me, and we both took heat for it. But seriously if you had counter-claimed IMMEDIATELY we might have actually still won now I really doubt that Keith is gonna be able to figure everything out in this mess. Keith is still the confirmed villager because there has to be one wolf and one villager in each pair of (big red, Dan), (JackVance, Gator).

So the two wolves insta-bolded to try and entice a villager into bolding on a villager and still win after their embarassing 33% hit. That is why Big Red was displaying the same haste as Gator with his bolding and "village why isn't Dan dead yet" comment I was thinking that was weird I mean why is he in such a hurry, just like Gator?

Jack was SO sure that dan was a wolf and a angel claim later and i post suspicion about gator and he accepts every word and starts heaping suspicion on bigred and gator. Now the wolves had obviously been in discussion and i was swinging to suspect gator as the second wolf....did this prompt the plan to out dan as the angel and claim big red and gator were the wolves and instant win?.

This is where I am at Big Red:
- Dan has looked more like a villager than you all game
- I know Gator has to be a wolf because I know I am a villager
- Gator firmly vouched for your angel claim in a similar bullying sense as you are doing
- You seemed pretty eager to get people to bold Dan, similar to Gator who tried to get Keith to snap-bold me
- you and Gator have cast supicion on each-other in the game, which is standard wolf MO in case one of them gets caught, while I believe Gator never went for Dan
- the way you came out "I am the angel" was pretty convincing in the sense that you acted the way I expected you to act if you were the angel, but at the same time it was suspicious you insta-bolded and pushed so hard on getting others to bold alongside you
- I was ready to bold Dan, but your last post about coaching made alarm bells go off so thx for that one, whichever way this turns out
- Dan looks a bit like Willbur last game, in the sense that his posts were weird, but if you read them knowing his (possible) role, then they are suddenly consistent
- you're a lot more vague and not picking sides than I would expect you to act if you were reasoning from a villager point-of-view and not as a wolf level.. in fact this is pretty much how you'd be running a straight-forward wolf level, while Dan would have to be running a more elaborate one, going back to the start of the game where he dropped an angel hint, and even now he seemed to be doing an awkward attempt at a plan which is something I have not seen wolves do, even if his reasoning is kinda bleh, it's still a villagery thing to do

jacks actions through all of this are suspect especially the way they both sway towards bigred and gator being the wolves when i post some suspicion of gator.

[jackvance]

Ugh why do I even bother when people have clearly already made up their mind. Take a look at things from my perspective if I were to be a villager. I have already seen Gator, who I know 100% to be a wolf, try for the quick gib on me. Is it that farfetched I am more inclined to be suspicious of Big Red rather than Dan considering BR did the same thing and kept going "kill him already guys!". Ofcourse at the end after I sided with Dan, Big Red suddenly changes his tone and posts more sensible stuff rather than "gogo lynch" making me doubt him again, but what can you do at that point. And I guess I really was the only one that noticed Gator's behavior was off all game. Let's coinflip then.

[GatorJH]

Let's coinflip then.

Suicide ploy only works when you can vote for yourself (like I did last game). Unfortunately for you as soon as you do that it is game over so instead you just throw out the hint.

[jackvance]

Suicide ploy only works when you can vote for yourself (like I did last game). Unfortunately for you as soon as you do that it is game over so instead you just throw out the hint.

Lol I am not voting for myself anymore after last game. Keith is clearly just taking his time to find reasons to convince himself of my guilt and he's gonna vote me anyway that is what I am getting at. It would also be retarded to do here, why do I screw the village when there is still a chance, albeit very small, they will wake up and notice what a crappy wolf I would have been all game to try and lynch a wolf and derail for villagers.

[Keith]

Suicide ploy only works when you can vote for yourself (like I did last game). Unfortunately for you as soon as you do that it is game over so instead you just throw out the hint.

yeah , couldn't do the suicide ploy in the mulligan game cos gator and IA were voting for me and self lynch would have been game over.

If big red hadn't protected me last night gator and big red would already have sealed the day today. I posted how you flip flopped with dan and were suspicious

so

lynch Jackvance

[GatorJH]

Lol I am not voting for myself anymore after last game.

lol - yea you did take a pretty good beating over that huh.

[jackvance]

Wrong choice Keith. It's now up to Big Red vs Gator and luck.

[jackvance]

lol - yea you did take a pretty good beating over that huh.

Geez who knew WW had a moral code like that, it's a cool strategy for a villager because you're suspendable anyway. Oh grats on the nice play

[Keith]

Wrong choice Keith. It's now up to Big Red vs Gator and luck.

if i made the wrong choice you're still wrong

Its then up to luck and if when get lucky Keith+bigred vs gator

so basically all down to a coinflip.

and if gator is the wolf it now makes no difference if he outs himself as there won't be any more voting , just a battle of wills between bigred and Gator tonight.

[GatorJH]

self lynch tomorrow if I guess wrong tonight, imo - ARRRRRRROOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!


Jack, you really did play a good game dude.

[Keith]

bummer

[Keith]

oh well , well played gator

[GatorJH]

thanks. Honestly I am glad the game is almost over. It's WAAAAAY too time consuming when you are a wolf.

[bigred]

Can I protect gator from self lynch?

[jackvance]

Gator I am still beating myself up over how Dan pulled the wool over my eyes like that, I don't just mean at the end but the whole game XD

and if gator is the wolf it now makes no difference if he outs himself as there won't be any more voting , just a battle of wills between bigred and Gator tonight.

This is what I just said and you called it wrong, lol funny guy.

[bigred]

FYI, I'll be pulling out a quarter and flipping it. I feel 0 pressure. I blame JV in advance if we lose.

[bigred]

IT is fitting that the game comes down to a coin flip at a poker forum

[GatorJH]

Don't worry bigred, if i guess wrong I will give you two the honors.

Jack, don't beat yourself up too bad. You pointed out correctly that things are much clearer as a wolf.

That and I was coaching the crap out of Dan. We had fun!!!!

[Keith]

thanks. Honestly I am glad the game is almost over. It's WAAAAAY too time consuming when you are a wolf.

think yourself lucky , try staying hidden for roughly 25 pages ,and wolf forum was the size of this total game and 34 pages of game to keep working through

[GatorJH]

IT is fitting that the game comes down to a coin flip at a poker forum

Especially between you and I.

[GatorJH]

our wolf forum got up to 29 pages, but they are much shorter pages than these. Probably equivalent to 10-12 pages here so nowhere nearly as bad as yours was.

[jackvance]

Jack, don't beat yourself up too bad. You pointed out correctly that things are much clearer as a wolf.

That and I was coaching the crap out of Dan. We had fun!!!!

Heh cool ^^. This one turned out to be pretty entertaining. And I felt at the end that the way I post so openly about my strategic approach was used against me there to fool me, dunno if that's what happened tho.

[jackvance]

IT is fitting that the game comes down to a coin flip at a poker forum

all-in preflop for $100 should decide imo.

[Keith]

what were your thoughts when i was pulling dan's argument to pieces?

[GatorJH]

what were your thoughts when i was pulling dan's argument to pieces?

As soon as he made his original post (I was actually in the process of giving him his strategy in the wolf forum when he posted at FTR) I knew he was toast so I immediately went into two modes: separate myself from him and try to point the finger at Jack, but do both subtly. Yesterday was definitely the most stressful day and I honestly thought you were going to put all of the pieces together.

Btw, as for my pick last night I actually figured there was a greater than 75% chance that Bigred would protect Keith but knew I had a better chance today with both Bigred and Keith in the game than Keith alone so I went for the longshot.

[lolzzz_321]

Jackvance claims he is innocent, but his words fall on deaf ears. The village impales him with ski poles. He was an olympian. Day 7 ended!

The angelic blizzard has stopped the lone wolf 3 nights in a row. A trinity! Night 7 ends with no casualties.

The sun shines bright on Day 8!



2 VOTES NEEDED TO LYNCH




THE VILLAGE
bigred
GatorJH
Keith_MM




THE DEPARTED
reDZill4 (seer) - Hanged on Day 1
TLR - Killed by the wolves on Night 1
xtr1000 - Hanged by the village on Day 2
surviva316 - Shot by the vigilante on Night 2
JKDS (vigilante) - Killed by the wolves on Night 2
Penneywize - Hanged by the village on Day 3
WillburForce - Killed by the wolves on Night 3
Ragnar4 -Hanged by the village on Day 4
Boog690 - Killed by the wolves on Night 4
Warpe - Hanged by the village on Day 5
DanAronG - Hanged by the village on Day 6
jackvance - Hanged by the village on Day 7



There is 1 Wolf and 2 Olympians
1 Wolf
1 Olympians
Sidney Crosby (Angel)

[bigred]

Hahahahahaha yes

[GatorJH]

ummmm lynch bigred?

[GatorJH]

I guess our coins were the same.

[bigred]

How much are you willing to pay for me to lynch myself?

[GatorJH]

shots in Vegas on me.

[Keith]

gator .....I'm prepared to listen to an argument for bolding a lynch on big red .......it willl need to be a bloody good argument though

[bigred]

how many shots?

[Keith]

oh and who was protected ?

[bigred]

protected myself ffffffffffffuuuuuuuuuuuuuu

[GatorJH]

gator .....I'm prepared to listen to an argument for bolding a lynch on big red .......it willl need to be a bloody good argument though

I would say that I played better than him, but it wouldn't be true so I guess I will go with the since Jack wasn't a wold Bigred HAS to be argument.

[Keith]

shots in Vegas on me.

does that include my flight ?

[bigred]

meh, lynch gator

my desire to win > my desire to be funny

[GatorJH]

protected myself ffffffffffffuuuuuuuuuuuuuu

and I chose you because I didn't get to lynch you during the game - lol.

Did you really flip a coin?

[GatorJH]

NOOOOOOOOOOOO. I am just a regular villager - REALLY I AM!!!!!


NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[bigred]

and I chose you because I didn't get to lynch you during the game - lol.

Did you really flip a coin?

nope, i knew u'd go for me as the cherry on top of your level...i know you well gator

[Keith]

would have been an epic level if i'd been the last wolf lol

[GatorJH]

sigh - and I almost went with Keith, but I figured you might take that thinking to the next level. Well played.

[Keith]

lynch gator

[Keith]

player of the game has to be BigRed for saving the villages ass for 3 nights

[GatorJH]

[lolzzz_321]

The villagers go old school and lynch GatorJH from a frozen tree. Turns out he was a wolf.

Looks like bigred's ivy league education paid off!


THE VILLAGE
bigred
Keith_MM




THE DEPARTED
reDZill4 (seer) - Hanged on Day 1
TLR - Killed by the wolves on Night 1
xtr1000 - Hanged by the village on Day 2
surviva316 - Shot by the vigilante on Night 2
JKDS (vigilante) - Killed by the wolves on Night 2
Penneywize - Hanged by the village on Day 3
WillburForce - Killed by the wolves on Night 3
Ragnar4 -Hanged by the village on Day 4
Boog690 - Killed by the wolves on Night 4
Warpe - Hanged by the village on Day 5
DanAronG - Hanged by the village on Day 6
jackvance - Hanged by the village on Day 7
GatorJH - Hanged by the village on Day 8



There are 2 Olympians
1 Olympians
Sidney Crosby (Angel)