How far do you go?

[Nut_Bob]

how far is the correct way to go when you have a draw? I had JK in pockets, then the flop comes up,QA8 then all I need is an Ten,people starts betting, I call and evetually the 4rth card comes up, a rotten 5 now a guy make a bigger bet, I think he must allready got it and i fold, this have happend to me very often lately and I have been loosing a great deal of money in those hands, do you guys think im chicken or would you go for the river? and then its AK suited and unsuited, I usually make a big bet preflop when i get those cards, to get people with smaller cards to fold, but here is the flop 458 and a guy make a big bet, I think whata damn idiot,calling me on that!? and i fold, or how would you do in that situation? also with AA and no bets against you, only callers but the flop is just low cards.will you check and hope for a free card ?or fold if someone bets at you, its not impossible that someone got 2 pairs or somthing, or going wild and continue to trow big bets in there.

[|~|ypermegachi]

call you if have odds to do so...consult the main page for more info.

[Jesse K]

You were drawing to a gut shot straight on the first hand which gave u a 5.1:1 odds against success or 16.5%. If the pot odds are greater than that, say theres a $120 in the pot and you only need 20 to call, in the long run it will be a profitable bet. The pot odds are 6:1.

I usually will call but if I dont hit it on the turn and there is betting and/or rasing in front of me I'd fold the hand. If you di hit the straight though, it is going to be very profitable due to people calling with top pair or 2 pair.

[Lucid]

The first situation is called a gutshot draw. It simply isn’t worth very much because you need an exact card to fill your strait. I wouldn't pay more than a minimum bet for a gutshot. If there are several callers to a baby raise then you may think about calling it, but if he raises anything like a pot-sized raise then you need to drop it. Straits are better in a way because they are harder to see than a flush. The problem is that if there are several callers and you make your strait the flush draw may make his flush and you’re out of luck.

First of all, if you have AA you want to try and raise enough so that you get one or two callers and force out the small pairs. Then if the flop isn't coordinated you want to bet about pot-sized. Beware of resistance at this point especially if there is no flush draw on the board. Someone with a pocket pair may have made set. You can bet a little smaller than pot-sized this time and still take away his odds. If you have bet at him on both the flop and the turn and he has called both I think I would check the river unless he is a fish. He may be slow-playing you.

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[RHCNNN]

Just because he's making a big bet on a ragged flop doesn't mean he called your pre flop raise with a crappy hand. It means either he thinks his hand is still good (like a pocket pair) or he thinks that that flop completely missed you, which it did.
If you think he is bullshitting you then maybe you should reraise him with your AK even though you didn't hit. Just remember he doesn't know what you have. You raised before the flop, and for all he knows you have a pair of Kings. He may think you just have over cards, and the flop missed you, but if you can bet first, or can reraise he may believe you have something good.

[koolmoe]

oh and in reality a gutshot probably isnt even 4 outs left if you were on a full table...its more like 2 or maybe 3 if you are lucky.

I agree with most of what you wrote Ripp, but your logic here is incorrect. You always have to treat it as four outs unless you have specific information that tells you otherwise.

[Nut_Bob]

thanx guys, very usefull info , and i think i did the correct thing by folding the gutshot draw, exept the play with AA AK KK after the flop, I will certanly make some changes in my play

[Jesse K]

oh and in reality a gutshot probably isnt even 4 outs left if you were on a full table...its more like 2 or maybe 3 if you are lucky.

I agree with most of what you wrote Ripp, but your logic here is incorrect. You always have to treat it as four outs unless you have specific information that tells you otherwise.

I agree.. Thats like saying now instead of 9 outs to a flush draw you only have 5 if its a full table. You cant think like that unless your playing a game like stud where you see the cards being folded.

[a500lbgorilla]

He was probably talking about tainted outs since you won't have the gutshot HU, if it's a 2 flush board or a paired board, your outs may be tainted.

That's probably it.

-'rilla

[elanto]

I do agree with what rippy said about him really having less thatn 4 outs, if its a full table then it has 10 people in it, and everyone has 2 cards so the odds are there is at least one ten out there so in most cases youill have less than 4 outs


-anto

[FishMagician]

That makes no sense. Odds are calculated using all the cards you can't see. You see 5 cards, out of the the 47 you don't see, 4 of them are 10s. Your chances are 4/47 on the turn, plus 4/46 on the river when you don't hit on the turn. If you're going to start assuming that people have 10s in their hands, then you have to start reducing the number of unknown cards you're calculating your odds on, and therefore the actual percentages stay the same.

Let's say there's 9 additional players at the table. That's 18 cards. The odds of each of those cards being a ten is exactly 4/47, so on average, (4/47)*18, or 1.53 cards, will be tens. So that means that there are only 2.47 tens left. But that also means there are only 29 cards left, so our odds of hitting a 10 on the turn are now 2.47/29 - which is exactly the same as 4/47.

Let me also say that I don't think this is what Ripptyde meant when he said that. Just clearing it up for some other folks.

-Fishmagician

[elanto]

youre 1000% right my bad, and youre probably right that isnt what rippy meant, srry for mixing this whole thing up i completely misunderstood.


-anto

[Lucid]

The only thing that makes sense to take away outs in this situation is for the flush draw. Otherwise if you put someone on A10 then you have almost no outs and are relying on making trips by the river. There could also be two flush draws by the turn, which would make a gutshot almost worthless unless you had the balls to represent one.

[Jesse K]

Another time to take away an out is if You need a 5 to hit your straight but the 5h would put 3 hearts on the board I may discount that out if I feel my opponent is drawing to a flush.