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IS BLUFFING PROFITABLE AT SMALL STAKES?
Ok, this question deals with over card bluffing. For example my last post was asking what hands to raise with, in what position, with x amount of players already in the pot. Now this would be the next step. Lets say I get heads up with QKo and completely miss the flop with flop being 6h,9s,Jh.
Now, heres the thing, ive read T.J. Cloutier and Tom Mcevoy's championship poker for no limit and pot limit hold em. And T.J. believes if for example you have a pair of queens and the flop comes up Ks,7c,4d. You just go ahead and give this pot up. He believes that if you are playin in a pot that you have raised preflop, it is likely that your opponent has the overcard if it comes on the flop.
Now with that being said. Let me emphasize that that* is when you actually have a hand he reccomends not semi-bluffing. Now im talkin about basically a stone cold bluff. Like I said if I have QKo and completely miss the flop with flop being 6h,9s,Jh. Do I bluff at the pot? Only in late position? Only against the most passive players? Do I always take a stab at it?
Now, ive always found at the stakes I play (.25nl) that the players at those tables are unbelievably huge calling stations. So 95% of the time im not takin a stab at the pot when I miss the flop. A friends I was talkin with said I need to take stabs at them when the flop comes up with two rags or more. For example a flop of 5,9,Q or 5,9,6. But dont stab at a flop with two or more face cards exa. J,Q,8 or J,Q,A.
So since ive wrote this post ive started keeping track of flops ive missed and stabbed at. And its far to few to come to a reasonable conclusion on whats more profitable to do in this situation. but so far ive stabbed at 7 and here are the results.(NOTE: ive never stabbed at the pot on the turn if my opponent calls, I just go ahead and give it up. LP & EP, stand for early and late positions ive stabbed at the flops. the last two flops ive stabbed at I actually recorded what the flops were so hopefully eventually ill know whta flops seem to be the most effective in takind down pots at.
FLOPS STABBED AT
LOST: WON:
$1.25,EP $3.00 LP
$2.25 LP
$2.25 LP
$2.50 EP
$1.70 LP,2,4,5 rainbow
$3.90 LP,6,J,T rainbow
So, do you guys think that its jsut the right opponents ive faces so far since ive successfully stole more pots then lost? Or do you think this will in the long run be more profitable? Im sue some of you are sayin well just keep taking track and see what happens. The thing is if anyone who feels strongly about what the overall outcome will be in doing this id like to know. because I am only at .25nl stakes with my bankroll and dont want to lose too much money as it is in my bankroll ...All thoughts appreciated
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