Here's more details on the hand. And what I actually did.
I hadn't sat at the table long and didn't have great
notes on each player. The player that called my 5000 chip
raise did not
act like a
maniac in the hands I saw. So I put him at
tight.
I thought about the odds. At a 50-100 table against a
tight player, the chances of a player CALLING but not raising me all in with a
Q in their hand was pretty damn good. I was ALMOST SURE OF IT. I
felt like there was a 95% chance he had a
Q.
So when the
turn came
Q. I decided then to
fold to an all in
raise.
He raised 2000, I folded. I had to bet 2000 to win a 20000 pot, and I
felt that there was a greater than 90% chance he had a
Q.
I was not pot committed because I
felt there was such a tiny chance that I could win the pot, and 10% of the pot is still a pretty large amount, especially considering it's a
ring game and not a tourney so losing all ur chips doesnt hurt too bad.
Unfortunately, it turns out he had A 5 off (4
Q 2
Q). I had no idea he would be
loose enough to make a HUGE mistake and
call a
gutshot with 1
overcard for almost
all-in.
I'
m not sure if I made a mistake by overestimating the chance he had of a
Q or if I made the long-term right choice by trusting my instincts, which turned out to be wrong in this
case.
I didnt
push All-in at the
turn because I was playing at a
maniac table with 5 other callers at the
flop. I
felt that the chances of someone with
two pair or better at the
flop was significant enough that I should bet less and indeed
fold to an
All-in reraise.