Do you fold AA and KK...??? The results

[Yeah]

I saw this posted recently and liked the question.

Just sat down in your NLHE 100 table (100). You have no reads on anyone, nor does anyone have any reads on you. You are in LP and look down and see KK.

One limper ahead of you and you bet out 5, folded to the limper and he calls.

Flop comes Q 8 3

You bet the pot, and he pushes all in (90), what do you do, and why?

The results will be interesting, and I will post what I would do and why.

[SteveO]

Only a small possibility limper is setting a trap in EP with AA or QQ. Why reraise with pocket 8s or 3s. Sure i would fear AA but you can't play poker assuming the bad guys have AA every hand. Could he be trying to buy it w/ AK or another pocket pair? I would assume he is trying to buy the pot. If he had AA he should slowplay. If he made his set he should slowplay. I'm all in baby!

[jobupoker]

I think you have to go all in but I'm more worried about 2 pair than AA or QQ. I go all in though because I put him on AQ since he called your raise and I find that most will raise with a pocket pair.

[Fnord]

Raise bigger pre-flop. At least 5x the BB.

[Yeah]

LOL, that is not the point of the question, that is what was bet, make your play from his allin bet.

It should also not include the...well if the flop was two suited...then, or if it was all three suited...then..etc.

Now, on to your recommendation (5xBB)

At 1/2 blinds, 5.00 is 2.5xBB - I am assuimg you are looking at it this way, as I am too. You raise 5xBB? What would ever justify raising 5xBB. Is it only to get callers from AA? Or when you have AA to get everyone to fold?


Making 5xBB is a horrible play in almost any situation (excluding micro's). I would assume that you are making that with only AA and KK, so why would anyone call you when you raise with that?

If you make 5xBB as a standard raise, you are betting WAY to much money preflop for your raising hands, blind stealing hands, bluffing hands.

You can say...well I would mix up your betting amounts preflop, to keep them guessing. That would mean you would have to bet more than 5xBB in situations???? Huh, what would ever constitute that?

Making a standard raise and generally sticking to it would be the most profitable move in the long run. Mixing it up judging on the game can work as well, but a 5xBB raise as a general rule of thumb - which is what I took for the reply - is nowhere near the most profitable play. Especially if you only make that move with AA and KK. No one would ever call your 1in110 raise of 5xBB. While I would agree that if it is your standard raise, people would probably call, but if it is - you would be broke pretty quickly.


Just my thoughts

[davfagan]

So lets say you do only raise 2.5xBB, there are many people who don't play right and will call with Ax. So let's say he hit his 18% chance to pair his ace, now your kings are done. If you raise it to 5xBB, you'll get callers from AKs, AK, AQs, and AJs, probably even QQ and JJ. So then odds are that the flop will be something like T52, and they'll bet their queens or jacks, you'll take down a big pot. Or, they won't have anything and will fold to your bet, and you'll still win money.

[Yeah]

So lets say you do only raise 2.5xBB, there are many people who don't play right and will call with Ax. So let's say he hit his 18% chance to pair his ace, now your kings are done. If you raise it to 5xBB, you'll get callers from AKs, AK, AQs, and AJs, probably even QQ and JJ. So then odds are that the flop will be something like T52, and they'll bet their queens or jacks, you'll take down a big pot. Or, they won't have anything and will fold to your bet, and you'll still win money.

I am somewhat confused in your response.

But, to get to your point (I think) I'll take that Ax call everytime heads up. In that case, he may even continue when he flops his X for a pair. And he may even try to bluff the flop every once in awhile too

Let's take a look: (simple example)

KK
AX
(preflop pot 13.00)
No ace on the flop approx. 4 times (13x4=52 profit)

KK
AX

ace on the flop

you fold (1x13=13)

Total gain out of 5 hands: 39
-----

Your idea of pushing him out

KK
Ax

You bet 10 - everyone including him folds

You win $3.00
(3x5 hands = 15.00)

Total profit 15.00 for the 5 hand same scenerio



Which one would you rather take?

[davfagan]

Well, let's just take an example that I just experienced...I raised 4xBB 1 off the button, and the button calls me.
Flop comes down rainbow, both check
Turn comes a , I bet 4xBB, he calls
River comes , I go all in for the rest of my chips in the sit and go, he calls,
and turns over . He said he likes the hand. Looking back, I probably should have just went all in right there for 1370 when the blinds were 50/100.

[Yeah]

Well, let's just take an example that I just experienced...I raised 4xBB 1 off the button, and the button calls me.
Flop comes down rainbow, both check
Turn comes a , I bet 4xBB, he calls
River comes , I go all in for the rest of my chips in the sit and go, he calls,
and turns over . He said he likes the hand. Looking back, I probably should have just went all in right there for 1370 when the blinds were 50/100.

Well you are comparing a SnG to a ring game, and you have given very little details (stack size, his play so far, did you try any blind steals recently..etc). Other than that, he was a 90% dog going into the flop. It was a bad beat. Yet going all in preflop with the button and the blinds remaining is a way way way worse play(unless someone thinks you are blind stealing)

You can't compare the two with the same results.

[DrNoChance]

As to your first question, I'd be torn between putting my opponent on a bluff vs. AQ vs. a set. It would really depend on the opponent, but if I had no prior info on the guy I'd probably call if I was on Party Poker. The problem here is the tiny pre-flop raise that was made, it's not enough to even fold out 33 or 88 so a set is highly possible. It's an awful risky bluff, if it is a bluff. I'm thinking AQ or a set...I say I'd probably call, but I'm not sure that that makes me a good player . Folding might be the smart move here. Some have mentioned that it makes sense to slow play the set in this situation, making the set less likely. A good point, but I often like to lead at the pot with a set...make it LOOK like I'm swinging at it and trying to buy it. That's just me. I try to be consistant, leading at the pot often when I do and don't have a hand. If I slowplay every monster, then my bets to steal pots become less effective.

I actually believe in raising the exact same amount pre-flop in a ring game anytime I raise...and like Fnord it's usually something like 5xBB. If you're going to raise, raise with authority like you've got something good. Baby raises just scream halfway hands like KQ/AJ etc. Raise it big, and you set yourself up to steal the pot if the flop comes with rags and you've got nothing but two overcards...you represented a strong hand before the flop, they will probably respect a raise if they don't have a strong overpair.

If you're going to raise before the flop, do it with authority or don't do it at all. Raise the same amount every time and you deny your opponent info. If you raise different amounts for ATs vs. AA, opponents WILL get a read on you.

[Yeah]

I saw this posted recently and liked the question.

Just sat down in your NLHE 100 table (100). You have no reads on anyone, nor does anyone have any reads on you. You are in LP and look down and see KK.

One limper ahead of you and you bet out 5, folded to the limper and he calls.

Flop comes Q 8 3

You bet the pot, and he pushes all in (90), what do you do, and why?

The results will be interesting, and I will post what I would do and why.

My thinking on this hand...at Party Poker it is probably worth a call.

Yet, besides that: His smooth call on the preflop raise doens't signal much. When the flop comes, and you fire out a pot size bet, he moves all in?????? If he was slowplaying AA, why wouldn't he continue to slowplay it on the flop? Two pair should be competly out of the question. Someone said that, and there is no way I am putting someone on two pair...Q8!!! (I dont think that is just as good as any random hand)... before a set or AA with that flop. Okay, so now I have ruled out that he has AA, and 2 pair.

Slowplaying QQ is a horrible idea pre-flop, so I doub't he would have done that. Plus if he hit top set on one of the most non-threatening boards you can think of, why would he play it like that.

On 33 and 88- could he have played his smaller set this way? Not in my mind, it is such a bad raise. Would most intelligent players play a set this way? No most definatly not, especially with no reads on your opponent.

AK is a possibility, but betting that much on just overcards is pretty risky, when you already bet the pot. You can't factor in any kind of odds with that bet. I would think that it would be highly unlikely he would limp in with AK as well. Plus, risk you whole stack on overcards when I bet the pot???????? I wouldn't think so.

AQ - is it worth your whole stack re-raise on a hand that could be dominated by all the other above hands (except AK). Plus, I bet out on the pot, to signal the queen doesn't scare me. And, raising allin would only get a call when you are a dog, why would he want that?

A stone cold bluff - it is really bad considering I have KK, I raised pre-flop and he called, and then I bet the pot. Who knows though, I am pretty confused at this guys play.


OK, so that takes us to the point that he played whatever hand he had so horriable wrong. Would you agree with that statement? Heck, i could now give him credit with Q8, that actually doesn't seem that far off. I mean he played his hand so freaking bad regardless of what he had.

In that case, I would fold my hand knowing I did the right thing. Then I would focus on this person and watch him ever-so-carefully until I came up with a clear cut take on his play. Chances are he is a horrid player, and you will take all his money when you know you have the best of it. All it takes is time to understand how he plays, and you will eat him alive when you know that.

Thoughts anyone?

[michael1123]

I agree that whatever cards he has, its a bad play, and he's probably a bad player, and a "maniac". But I don't think that got you any closer to figuring out if you were beat or not. He could easily have AQ or be completely bluffing, with how crazy of a player he is. Or he could have two pair, a set, or aces.

Who really knows. Hard to read someone that doesn't really know what they're doing.

[Yeah]

That was the point.

[evilevilmatt]

Oh! Oh! I know the ironic answer!
He has Kings too right?

[Toasty]

This post is hillarious, I think a few people missed the part where he said "hyperthetical situation".

My answer is simple, if they were red i would fold and if they were black i would call.

[koolmoe]

Preflop, you can't put him on much. He only had to risk $3 to win $10, giving him pretty good odds. He could be playing a small pocket pair or any number of drawing hands. He could also be slowplaying AA from early position, especially if there are aggressive players at the table giving him a reasonable expectation to get a chance to reraise to isolate. Since it folded back around to him, a smooth call would be reasonable.

On the flop, the betting order appears to have changed. Did the opponent check-raise? That changes the scenario a bit.

If he's stone-cold bluffing, it's a terrible bluff ($90 to win $18 needs to work about 83% of the time to break even). I would rule out the bluff until I knew more about the opponent.

To me, it appears that your opponent has an overpair or caught part of the flop and wants to take down the pot on the flop. Let's just say it's about 50-50 that he has either two pair, a set or AA vs. AQ, KQ, or QJ.

In that scenario, you have 2 outs when he's ahead, he has 5 outs 66% of the time when you're ahead and 2 outs the other 33% of the time. I think that nets out to about -4% (he wins 16% the 50% of the time you're ahead, you win 8% the 50% of the time he's ahead), putting you at about 46% win rate. You'd only have to put in $90 to win $108, which is slightly +EV in that scenario.

Bottom line, Q83r is a really friendly flop to KK. If you know you're not gonna sac up and play your cowboys on a flop like that, you need to raise more preflop to get a better idea of where you are. A bigger preflop raise would allow you to eliminate Q8, 33, and maybe even 88. Also, if $90 seems like too much to call, you need to pick a lower limit.

(Disclaimer: "you" is not intended to refer to any poster. I realize this is a hypothetical situation.)

[SteveO]

Are we going to get the "results"?

[Yeah]

They are in there, I believe back a few posts. They are not actual results because it wasn't a real hand, just a hypo. situation.

[Toasty]

The answer is :

There is no genuine hand he could have unless he played it badly!, if he is stone cold bluffing he has also chosen a very bad time to do it. Which means you are probably looking at a bad player which then takes you back to Q8 as a possibility. You would fold and watch the player to confirm he is bad.

This isn't my answer btw, I'm re-posting Yeah's answer simplified. Hope I didn't lose to much.

Also I don't think its aimed at the regular party players, its more of a trick hand reading question. The trick being you can't put the person on a hand.

[Yeah]

thanks toasty

[johnnyawe]

If this happened on Party, I would call.

I would be very concerned that he caught a set though.