Sep 2015 Werewolf - Game thread

[SuperMonkeyFace]

I can see it was sorta under pressure so I can see the argument of a vanilla not doing that it that situation

[Cory]

Rascal doesn't FPS much afaict and I've played a lot of games with him

I think he's pretty much polarized from seer to wolf

[OngBonga]

It's safe to assume that if he's seer who felt pressured enough to claim, that he would feel equally as pressured as a wolf. Given there are 3 wolves, talking purely mathematics we're 3x more likely to lynch a wolf than seer, so we have at least 75% equity. Throw in that as seer he realises that claiming will render him useless, and I'd say those numbers start to become even more favourable.

The worst case scenario is already out of our hands. If he's the seer, we have no seer. It's now probably a wolf lynch, or maybe a simple mislynch.

[Cory]

I don't think it's that simple considering there is a village angel

Let's say theoretically he is the seer

If we lynch the wolf roleblocker and the angel remains hidden, there's pretty much nothing the wolves can do to stop the seer besides hoping the tailor the correct player

[Cory]

Oh duh angel can't protect on consecutive nights

That hampers things

[SuperMonkeyFace]

Rascal doesn't FPS much afaict and I've played a lot of games with him

I think he's pretty much polarized from seer to wolf

It's not fps if your y just trying to protect your PRs. That's standard vanillihing imo

[GatorJH]

Oh duh angel can't protect on consecutive nights

That hampers things

If the angel randoms the protect it may work out.

Being the optimist I would rather go that route, but that's just me.

[OngBonga]

Fakeclaiming seer as vanilla on d1 with half a wagon is FPS.

[Cory]

It's not fps if your y just trying to protect your PRs. That's standard vanillihing imo

I have played with or watched rascal in like 50+ turbos and I have never, ever seen him claim seer as vanilla

[BankItDrew]

Oh wolves have a roleblokcer, of course.

baudib might or might not be a wolf, idfk. He does really wolfy things as villager, and he does really villagery things as wolf.

rascal is always a wolf here though. A seer doesn't claim on d1 where the wolves have a roleblocker, especially a seer as smart as rascal.

lynch rascal

This is not something I considered and it currently blowing my mind. Gonna ponder.

[Cory]

blowing your mind?

[BankItDrew]

Seer's safe, Rascal's probably a villager. Not a pressing matter.

This was my second reaction after "wtf is rascal doing".

[BankItDrew]

blowing your mind?

Okay. More like "added an angle"

[SuperMonkeyFace]

Fakeclaiming seer as vanilla on d1 with half a wagon is FPS.

I see that. I just didn't really consider that to be a hard fake claim or anything like that. So I thought it was cover.

Fake claiming seer though I absolutely agree is horrible on d1. And it's likely a wolf move. That's to say he's being serious though

[SuperMonkeyFace]

I have played with or watched rascal in like 50+ turbos and I have never, ever seen him claim seer as vanilla

You're not a good turbo player if you're not claiming seer at least once a day.

This is interesting developments though. He's obv NOT the seer

[OngBonga]

I see that. I just didn't really consider that to be a hard fake claim or anything like that. So I thought it was cover.

Fake claiming seer though I absolutely agree is horrible on d1. And it's likely a wolf move. That's to say he's being serious though

How have you twice missed this?

Yes, I know she was and she may be again, but I don't have time to deal with her crap this game.

I hate to do this, but HARD CLAIM SEER

In normal circumstances, this wouldn't be the best play, but I don't know if I'll be back before EOD tomorrow and when I asked for a sub I got no response.

Yes, I know it's hard to believe I randed cop/seer again, but it is what it is.

[BankItDrew]

Come to think of it, I've literally never fake claimed before and I've played WW for what? Years?

Me thinks my first FC is going to get some credit, unlike rascal here.

[BankItDrew]

I may have claimed a legit role once while on the block but I don't even remember doing that hahaha

[Cory]

You're not a good turbo player if you're not claiming seer at least once a day.

This is interesting developments though. He's obv NOT the seer

Talking about HARDCLAIMING. Seer cover is one thing. Hardclaiming seer is different. Rascal takes the concept of "hard claiming" seriously.

[Cory]

also,

no u

[OngBonga]

I'm in no doubt that if rascal is a wolf who is legit absent for the rest of the day and that he's the likely lynch, then he'd feel the time was right to fakeclaim in an effort to help his buddies find the seer.

I have a great deal of doubt that rascal seer wouldn't have realised the consequences of claiming on d1.

It makes much more sense to gamble that you're not going to get lynched than it does to just kill your power outright by claiming.

He's always a wolf here. Always.

[SuperMonkeyFace]

How have you twice missed this?

Haha oh man. Ya I didn't see that. I power skimmed thru some posts to post a little bit.

Ya wtf. And why the fuck..

[SuperMonkeyFace]

I'm in no doubt that if rascal is a wolf who is legit absent for the rest of the day and that he's the likely lynch, then he'd feel the time was right to fakeclaim in an effort to help his buddies find the seer.

I have a great deal of doubt that rascal seer wouldn't have realised the consequences of claiming on d1.

It makes much more sense to gamble that you're not going to get lynched than it does to just kill your power outright by claiming.

He's always a wolf here. Always.

Ya I mean. Let's say he really believes he's the seer. How is that ever a good idea to hardclaim on d1. Rather leave your peek and die by lynch if you have to.

I'll take my own advice. Cory is a peeked villager

[Hoopy]

Finally caught up.

rascal as seer? Idk, seems like an odd time to out.

My experiences with rascal make me think that he wouldn't do this as vanilla. He seems anti spewy to me, and this is spew as vanilla.

Tiredness could be a factor though.

[Cory]

Who are you SMF

[SuperMonkeyFace]

Who are you SMF

Ftr's best kept secret

[Hoopy]

My default stance is that lynching unCC PR's is bad. At least on the day they claim.

It's safe to assume that if he's seer who felt pressured enough to claim, that he would feel equally as pressured as a wolf. Given there are 3 wolves, talking purely mathematics we're 3x more likely to lynch a wolf than seer, so we have at least 75% equity. Throw in that as seer he realises that claiming will render him useless, and I'd say those numbers start to become even more favourable.

The worst case scenario is already out of our hands. If he's the seer, we have no seer. It's now probably a wolf lynch, or maybe a simple mislynch.

I like your post. Is the bolded part accurate though? The roles are so different.

[BankItDrew]

Ong, I think you're a villager but I don't agree with you when you say rascal is always a wolf. Always.

He he could legitimately be providing cover. I think this is the most likely scenario.

[Hoopy]

@MMM

Can we have a vote count?

[OngBonga]

Ong, I think you're a villager but I don't agree with you when you say rascal is always a wolf. Always.

He he could legitimately be providing cover. I think this is the most likely scenario.

I think it's highly unlikely. It's too reckless for rascal.

[SuperMonkeyFace]

It'll be sad if rascal never comes back to post about all the heat he's catching

[Hoopy]

And while she's here. Kami still occupies a shrinking pool of great day 1 targets. Game's getting easy.

Isoing rilla's posts to see if he's cleared himself yet. Not really, but I do like this idea.

lynch Kami

[Cory]

Isoing rilla's posts to see if he's cleared himself yet. Not really, but I do like this idea.

lynch Kami

uh why

[Cory]

That awkward moment when you realize the struggle is real but you don't know if we are in a weird villager-struggle environment or game is ez

[MadMojoMonkey]

/\/\/\/\/\/\/\
|| VOTE COUNT ||
\/\/\/\/\/\/\/

player (votes) || who's voting for them

Kami (4) || Cory, Hoopy, rascal, rilla

rascal (3) || Kami, ong, ship

ong (2) || baudib, wuf

baudib (1) || gabe
Gator (1) || Evene
JKDS (1) || SMF
SMF (1) || JKDS
wuf (1) || BID

no vote (1) || Gator

8 to lynch. Please notify me if you spot an error in the VC.

Day 1 ends in ~22 hours.

EDIT: D1 ends @ 5:00 PM GMT on Friday, which is 11:00 AM in St Louis.

[baudib]

Rascal's a vanillager.

[SuperMonkeyFace]

Rascal's a vanillager.

I'm listening..

[OngBonga]

I'm not.

[a500lbgorilla]

Rascal's a vanillager.

Then he's got FPS and you've got FP on the B.

[a500lbgorilla]

The only thing about rascals claim that is villagery is the timing. His whole portfolio is pretty bad. Policy lynch, putting in no effort the share his thoughts on the village, not really sharing any insight at all, the fact that it's a slam dunk move for a wolf to do if you're staring down a wagon you don't think you can shake.

Guys wolfy based on his posts up to that point, the outing itself, and how he handles it afterwards. He even tries to play like he seeded the notion that he was the seer by alluding to a post he made like 10 minutes before the claim.

[Hoopy]

uh why

Her posts are mainly fluff and one liners.

[a500lbgorilla]

Isoing rilla's posts to see if he's cleared himself yet. Not really, but I do like this idea.

lynch Kami

After a quick checkup breeze, Kami's entire approach is to be cute and float along in the thread. There's nothing else.

[OngBonga]

Also there's no way the seer claims with no info when there's a roleblocker.

This isn't close. I dunno what people are worried about. If he's the seer, he's useless. But he's a wolf, and he might not be useless to them.

[gabe]

hes not useless if hes the seer

im listening ong but i dont like the idea of killing rascal with the chance of him not getting to post again

i think if he was a wolf it would be too extreme FPS, considering the little pressure that was on him. the wolf tailor cant be a strong enough role to overcome the problem he would face as a wolf (problem being he is a pretty likely seer target)



this post seems hard to make as a wolf:

I've always hated the "we can't lynch player x even if they are doing what they do as a wolf because they are a strong or easy-to-read player" even if I have a habit of falling for it relatively often. Here's something that happens to me a great deal: there's a player who I read very, very well as a villager and can typically clear them by the end of D1. They are mostly inactive, but make some posts talking about how busy they are IRL or w/e and I decide "well, I should be able to read them well later, it's not worth pushing super hard bc maybe RL is making it hard for them to play and THAT'S why I don't already know their alignment even though I usually do by now" and push someone else just long enough for them to never get seriously wagoned. Someone else is lynched, villager or wolf. I get NKed. That player, of course, is a wolf.

One thing I've been trying to improve on is to not let myself get suckered into shit like this, and I agree with Gator in general that there are more than a few "good" players in this game and putting someone's villager game on a pedestal to overcome behavior from them that is typically ~wolfy is probably a mistake. But I doubt Rilla is going deep as a wolf so I'm not incredibly concerned.

AFAICT you should lynch the people acting like wolves

[baudib]

I'm gonna go with Rilla, Hoopy, JKDS for postgame.

[baudib]

Isoing rilla's posts to see if he's cleared himself yet. Not really, but I do like this idea.

lynch Kami

let me look to see the guy who I can easily clear has cleared himself.

No? well fine, I'll join him in lynching the player I have no idea how to clear.

[baudib]

Gabe, why is your pony slow this game?

The problem with this game is there are too many damn villagers in it. I feel like this game would be easier if it were 3 wolves in 13.

[a500lbgorilla]

hes not useless if hes the seer

im listening ong but i dont like the idea of killing rascal with the chance of him not getting to post again

i think if he was a wolf it would be too extreme FPS, considering the little pressure that was on him. the wolf tailor cant be a strong enough role to overcome the problem he would face as a wolf (problem being he is a pretty likely seer target)



this post seems hard to make as a wolf:

Rascal was getting pressure. A lot of his buddies were floating his name and he was lining up to be a good target. How does he out as seer as the actual seer if he doesn't perceive the threat of lynching?

[baudib]

Rascal is close to 0% a wolf in this spot, he knows how to anti-spew and wouldn't try for a suicidal claim.

Kami is a really likely villager.

I see no one listened to me when I said the wagons were horrible, they just got more horrible.

glgl

[a500lbgorilla]

I'm gonna go with Rilla, Hoopy, JKDS for postgame.

The lesson you'll learn is that you can't read me. What happens is that I read me and explain myself to you.

[OngBonga]

gabe they have a roleblocker. If he's the seer, we need to hit the roleblocker before they hit the angel, and that's just to maybe get one peek. He's next to useless. We can't confirm him as seer until it's obvious that noone else is going to counterclaim. In the meantime, we're left with an elephant in the room, while not knowing if we're up against it or if they are. That's if he's seer. He probably isn't seer, which means he's probably got a wolf power.

Killing him makes sense. There's little to lose that we haven't already lost.

[baudib]

The lesson you'll learn is that you can't read me. What happens is that I read me and explain myself to you.

oh. just consider it a policy lynch then.

[baudib]

Rilla, just FUCKING LOL at you being like the 5th person to tell me I can't read them this game.

I Just read you off 3 posts last game.

[gabe]

Gabe, why is your pony slow this game?

The problem with this game is there are too many damn villagers in it. I feel like this game would be easier if it were 3 wolves in 13.

i think we are doing well. my bold has stayed on the best guess i can muster on day 1. i did carefully read your rilla argument and it did give pause

usually if we had the problem of "too many villagers" its a good thing but not with a set a new players

[baudib]

i think we are doing well. my bold has stayed on the best guess i can muster on day 1. i did carefully read your rilla argument and it did give pause

usually if we had the problem of "too many villagers" its a good thing but not with a set a new players

yeah I feel like we're way ahead unless I'm incorrectly clearing someone like you, Gator, Cory, Ship.

[a500lbgorilla]

Rilla, just FUCKING LOL at you being like the 5th person to tell me I can't read them this game.

I Just read you off 3 posts last game.

And you misread me off one this game.

[baudib]

well not WAY ahead but maybe 55-45, which is pretty decent at this point.

[gabe]

Rascal was getting pressure. A lot of his buddies were floating his name and he was lining up to be a good target. How does he out as seer as the actual seer if he doesn't perceive the threat of lynching?

fwiw i'm not assuming he is the seer, he could be something else. he knows, if he was a wolf and made this claim, that he would be destined to not win the game. so im trying to come up with scenarios on my own that make it all fit togther

The lesson you'll learn is that you can't read me. What happens is that I read me and explain myself to you.

ha

[baudib]

And you misread me off one this game.

where is all of the aggression and tarping and vigor that you usually show? are you being soft and hedgy for any particular reason?

[baudib]

also it's not one post.

do you think you have any villagery posts this game, Rilla? I'm surprised you actually have like 30 of them. I think Evene and JKDS have had more impact.

[a500lbgorilla]

fwiw i'm not assuming he is the seer, he could be something else. he knows, if he was a wolf and made this claim, that he would be destined to not win the game. so im trying to come up with scenarios on my own that make it all fit togther


ha

You mean like, if he doesn't survive as a wolf but the wolves win, he still takes it as a loss? Even so, his excuses for his real life situation may be square and he may just have to push off from this game. Though, that would play to him also doing it as a vanilliager as the play may somehow help whichever team he's on.

The problem I have with that is that it's all too lawyered, too designed, too much of him telling a story.

I fall back to Occam's Razor. He sensed the end, he couldn't squirm out of it, and there's a high-value play to be made, make it. And this play clicks higher value as a wolf than it does as a villager than it does as a seer.

[baudib]

jeanlucpicardfacepalm.gif

[a500lbgorilla]

where is all of the aggression and tarping and vigor that you usually show? are you being soft and hedgy for any particular reason?

TUESDAY AT FUCKING NOON THIS GAME STARTED YOU MORON. TUESDAY AFTER MY TEAM PLAYED THE #1 TEAM IN THE LEAGUE. TUESDAY AFTER LABOR DAY. TUESDAY WHILE I WAS AT WORK WORKING ON A PROJECT BASED IN A DIFFERENT COUNTRY ON A DEADLINE FOR FRIDAY.

Capslock to suggest I've got the aggression.

PS And this is but a taste of the explaining myself I could do for you, but I'm not going to. You've got lessons to learn.

[a500lbgorilla]

facepalm occam's razor at your own peril.

[OngBonga]

Just respond with "no u" then vote for him if you want to be obvtown, rilla.

[baudib]

Listen, the marginal value of Rascal doing this as a wolf is very small compared to just eating it and going antispew for ~40 hours.

I mean, Rascal was roughly in the same spot last game for over a week when losing his partner D1 and managed to fabricate enough in the wee hours of the night to get to F3. There's no reason he couldn't skate by doing the same here if he got wolf again.

[a500lbgorilla]

Just respond with "no u" then vote for him if you want to be obvtown, rilla.

Tucking this play into the playbook.

[baudib]

TUESDAY AT FUCKING NOON THIS GAME STARTED YOU MORON. TUESDAY AFTER MY TEAM PLAYED THE #1 TEAM IN THE LEAGUE. TUESDAY AFTER LABOR DAY. TUESDAY WHILE I WAS AT WORK WORKING ON A PROJECT BASED IN A DIFFERENT COUNTRY ON A DEADLINE FOR FRIDAY.

Capslock to suggest I've got the aggression.

PS And this is but a taste of the explaining myself I could do for you, but I'm not going to. You've got lessons to learn.

I'm going to be really mad at you possibly.

[a500lbgorilla]

Listen, the marginal value of Rascal doing this as a wolf is very small compared to just eating it and going antispew for ~40 hours.

I mean, Rascal was roughly in the same spot last game for over a week when losing his partner D1 and managed to fabricate enough in the wee hours of the night to get to F3. There's no reason he couldn't skate by doing the same here if he got wolf again.

He's on antispew now. He's been on antispew the entire game.

[baudib]

Look, Rascal's not the seer but let's give the wolves something to stew on tonight.

[a500lbgorilla]

I'm still riding QTKami.

[OngBonga]

Let's kill rascal and see if baudib is fighting to keep the tailor alive.

[a500lbgorilla]

That's some mighty fine paranoid thinking you've got going on.

[OngBonga]

Thank you.

[a500lbgorilla]

Alright, I'll actually spell out the subtext this time. Occam's razor once again - buadib is a villager reading the village wrong way more often than a wolf trying to get a result here.