Varchertine's Werewolf Game Thread

[BankItDrew]

I'm a villager. I'm highly confident boog is a wolf. Just trust me on this.

[OngBonga]

I'm mostly suspicious of MMM.

No. If rascal is wolf, mojo is very probably a villager. Trust me.

[BooG690]

All the arguments against me (by baudib and Drew) are all applicable to baudib. Drew, you're tunneling me and ignoring baudib. What are your thoughts on baud?

[Luco]

I'm going to post while extremely drunk tonight. Trust me on this.

[BankItDrew]

Why did the wolves not make more of an effort to save boog, if there's a wolf in boog/monstr? .

Are you srz? The vote was gabe 4 boog 5. Late. Then three players jumped on a v-v wagon.

[BankItDrew]

No. If rascal is wolf, mojo is very probably a villager. Trust me.

I agree.

This assumes rascal is a wolf though, which I'm not at all convinced of yet.

[BankItDrew]

All the arguments against me (by baudib and Drew) are all applicable to baudib.

This is a lie.

My only argument against you is for late game voting patterns which resulted in a v-v lynch.

Did gabe have his vote on baudib at the end of the day? No. Fuck off.

[OngBonga]

I agree.

This assumes rascal is a wolf though, which I'm not at all convinced of yet.

Well I can only say if I think he's a wolf or villager, and either say trust me, or back it up with stuff from this thread. At the moment it's a case of trust me.

[baudib]

I'm 100% with Bid on this and not at all understanding why Ong doesn't get it.

and this is damn wolfy

All the arguments against me (by baudib and Drew) are all applicable to baudib. Drew, you're tunneling me and ignoring baudib. What are your thoughts on baud?

[baudib]

I'm not convinced Rascal is a wolf, certainly not enough to sacrifice Ong for it.

[baudib]

Luco trolling is an interesting look btw.

[baudib]

BID, I'm not lynching MMM today. I'll fight tooth and nail against any lynch that's not Wuf/Boog.

[BooG690]

This is a lie.


My only argument against you is for late game voting patterns which resulted in a v-v lynch.


Did gabe have his vote on baudib at the end of the day? No. Fuck off.

You said nothing about a vote in this post:

What's the point in trying to gather info on a mislynch if we're not going to use that info?


Gabe wanted boog dead, boog wanted gabe dead, it was a close race right until the end, a could of late votes happened against gabe.


=


LYNCH BOOG


I swear to fucking god people... We should be basing our votes primarily on guaranteed info we receive.

Who'd gabe want dead?

boog and baudib are the names id like to see lynched


if the village thought rong was a wolf, i wouldnt be "flailing" id be like "ok"


you keep coming at me but i have villagery posts. its preposterous i would play wolf like this after having such great success last game at going deeper than ive gone in years

Oh, that's right.

Tell me I'm lying again.

[OngBonga]

To summarise my reason for baudib/rascal team...

- ong says just before gabe/rong flip that a v/v looks bad for partner
- gabe/rong flip v/v
- I vote daven and fuck off to bed
- blah blah
- baudib says I'm 90% villager while maintaining an element of distrust
- shows no interest in my partner

I propose that baudib showed no interest in my partner because he already knew who it is. He can't come swinging too wildly for me because I'm effectively a wolf with him, but he doesn't want me getting too much trust from the village becuase my loyalties are to the village. So he makes a comment saying I'm 90% villager but...

monstr said I'm a villager for going against consesus. That was a natural comment.

baudib said I'm 90% villager but... that is agenda driven.

[Hoopy]

I find it interesting that the only outed pairs that are voting the same are Gabe-Rong.

I have a strong villa vibe from Rong, but Gabe is looking wolfier. Their vote on Boog is team self pres it looks like.

I'd be really interested in Rong's thoughts on Gabe.

Lynch Gabe for some incentive for Rong to talk to me about Gabe.

rong wasn't going to vote for his partner unless he was really sure he was wolfing, same for everyone else.

After a quick read, here's where I stand atm (with my tryhard colors):

Villas:
Daven

Why daven?

Who says my partner hasn't already voted?

But everyone except bigred had voted at this point.

[baudib]

Monstr, if you're a villager you need to put in more effort today. Give us the lowdown on Boog.

Wuf/Hoopy need to be more active as well.

[baudib]

To summarise my reason for baudib/rascal team...

- ong says just before gabe/rong flip that a v/v looks bad for partner
- gabe/rong flip v/v
- I vote daven and fuck off to bed
- blah blah
- baudib says I'm 90% villager while maintaining an element of distrust
- shows no interest in my partner

I propose that baudib showed no interest in my partner because he already knew who it is. He can't come swinging too wildly for me because I'm effectively a wolf with him, but he doesn't want me getting too much trust from the village becuase my loyalties are to the village. So he makes a comment saying I'm 90% villager but...

monstr said I'm a villager for going against consesus. That was a natural comment.

baudib said I'm 90% villager but... that is agenda driven.

Ong, get your head in the game already. the rest of us don't FPS as much as you think we should.

[OngBonga]

lynch baudib

The logical path for me really. If I'm wrong about rascal, I've got no more outs, whers if I'm wrong about baudib, I might get lucky with rilla, though I doubt it.

[OngBonga]

Ong, get your head in the game already. the rest of us don't FPS as much as you think we should.

You do.

[baudib]

I really don't. You're taking a pretty low EV line as a villager here.

[OngBonga]

I really don't. You're taking a pretty low EV line as a villager here.

How can you know this? You have no idea why I suspect rascal... unless he's telling you, of course.

[baudib]

I think, from your perspective, there has to be a pairing that is greater than .5 wolf.

[baudib]

And Hoopy made a good catch on Rascal because his placement of Daven stopped me too. But in review I don't think Daven's game has been that bad, he's had wolfy, low-posting villager games before.

[OngBonga]

I think, from your perspective, there has to be a pairing that is greater than .5 wolf.

Yeah... you/rilla is around 0.51

[baudib]

I think me/rilla is around .00

[baudib]

Ong, the movement from Boog to Gabe is textbook wolf 101. For you to say the wolves made no effort to save Boog/Monstr is patently absurd. BID is crushing you in logic here.

Occam's Razor is your friend.

[OngBonga]

drew is crushing my logic? Funny, I can't even remember what he's said.

[OngBonga]

Are you srz? The vote was gabe 4 boog 5. Late. Then three players jumped on a v-v wagon.

Yes, but I initiated it. Me. A villager. There might well have been wolves jumping on after, I'm not disputing that. They figure I'll take the rap for it.

The point is, I stirred the pot late. Under an hour. Wolves just sat back and left boog/monstr in the lead ahead of gabe/rong. If wolves are going to attempt to save him, it's gonna look bad if it's done really late. They should be doing it with plenty of hours left.

Both wagons look like v/v to me.

[JKDS]

Mod Corner

Vote Count!
(3) Baudib: Monstrman, Boog, Ongbonga
(2) Wufwugy: a500lbgorilla, Baudib
(1) Ongbonga: Luco
(1) Boog: Bankitdrew

Day 2 Ends in ~2.5 Days

BTW



Archersaurus is a thing

[baudib]

Your logic here is really failing you Ong. If I'm reading it correctly, Boog was already on Gabe and Rascal made a late vote switch? And Daven and Wuf were camped on Gabe. Is this correct?

~1 hour is an eternity for Rascal, who is a turbo player accustomed to entire game days lasting 20 minutes.

and the idea that I'm casting shade on you by saying you're 90% villager when I've implied I was never lynching you this game previously is a real stretch. Why are you playing badly?

[baudib]

I've got the Wuf-Hoopy and Boog-Monstr pairings producing around .75 to .85 wolves, going back and forth on them though. I think the most likely villager of the 4 is Monstr.

[baudib]

Mod Corner

Vote Count!
(3) Baudib: Monstrman, Boog, Baudib
(2) Wufwugy: a500lbgorilla, Baudib
(1) Ongbonga: Luco
(1) Boog: Bankitdrew

Day 2 Ends in ~2.5 Days

BTW



Archersaurus is a thing

I'm not voting for myself.

[baudib]

I mean the idea that the wolves wouldn't hop on to save Boog/Monstr after a vocal villager like Ong led the charge is downright stupid.

[OngBonga]

I mean the idea that the wolves wouldn't hop on to save Boog/Monstr after a vocal villager like Ong led the charge is downright stupid.

Led the charge with under an hour left.

Why were they dithering? Why wait for me? I could be asleep, it was 4am or whatever.

and the idea that I'm casting shade on you by saying you're 90% villager when I've implied I was never lynching you this game previously is a real stretch. Why are you playing badly?

Why are you being dumb? I'm suggesting you're a wolf with my buddy. Of course you want to cast doubt on me while not wanting to lynch me. "90% villager but" is really fucking convenient if you're a wolf with my partner.

You suggesting I'm playing badly, and saying that drew is owning me, this is you playing to me ego. That in itself is wolfy. You're not remotely concerned about why I'm reading my partner as wolfy, you're not wondering if I have poor information that ties you to him, you're just trying to slap my ego about in an attempt to get me off your back. I think you know I'm right about you both.

[baudib]

Led the charge with under an hour left.

Why were they dithering? Why wait for me? I could be asleep, it was 4am or whatever.



Why are you being dumb? I'm suggesting you're a wolf with my buddy. Of course you want to cast doubt on me while not wanting to lynch me. "90% villager but" is really fucking convenient if you're a wolf with my partner.

You suggesting I'm playing badly, and saying that drew is owning me, this is you playing to me ego. That in itself is wolfy. You're not remotely concerned about why I'm reading my partner as wolfy, you're not wondering if I have poor information that ties you to him, you're just trying to slap my ego about in an attempt to get me off your back. I think you know I'm right about you both.

I'm trying to get you to get your head in the game so we can win. your argument makes no sense. I'm really certain I'd bus the shit out of rascal if we were W/W, wolf rascal isn't likely to live long on this site when he got turbolynched as the uncountered angel last game. If that leads to getting rid of villager Ong, even better.

I want to keep you alive despite rascal's wolf equity, whatever it may be.

[baudib]

you are definitely playing badly, Ong. The next game we play, remember that I've read you better than you me for many games now.

[OngBonga]

I'm not a wolf with rascal because I'd bus him.

What an awesome argument.

Lynch baudib, then when he shows up wolf, lynch the fuck out of me.

[JKDS]

I'm not voting for myself.

YOURE NOT MY SUPERVISOR!!!

Vote count corrected.

[BankItDrew]

You said nothing about a vote in this post:

Who'd gabe want dead?



Oh, that's right.

Tell me I'm lying again.

I don't follow.

Did gabe have his vote on boog or on baudib?

[MadMojoMonkey]

If the final vote was 7-5
And my vote was the last vote-action
Then it was 6-6 before my switch.
If it was 6-6, the tie would def go to boog.

The wagons were exactly equal with (from my POV) 1 wolf, 1 ? and the rest V's.
That is counting me as a V on boog before my vote switch.

So my switch put me voting with 1 more perceived V, and I thought rong was the wolfiest of D1.
The fact that the reasons for my vote went against the grain of everyone else on that wagon should have kept me off of it, in retrospect.

***
It was my decision, and ultimately it was based on my perceptions.
I was influenced to reconsider my vote by my what ong (I perceive as V) was posting and daven's (also V) encouragement of me to follow my gut and vote for the wolfiest player - which is what I had been saying is the correct play, and I stand by that method, even though I was wrong about rong.

***
ong looking very V with his open on D2. He has def. drawn a line in the sand, and I'm reading that as super villagery.
He's pulled his vote from himself, and rascal hasn't posted anything to defend ong's opening accusaions... so that could be a development, or it could be that ong is getting more action from his vote on baud right now.

[BankItDrew]

lynch baudib

The logical path for me really. If I'm wrong about rascal, I've got no more outs, whers if I'm wrong about baudib, I might get lucky with rilla, though I doubt it.

To your credit, you rescinded yourself much later than I would have guessed.

[MadMojoMonkey]

There's a non-zero chance that BID says "trust me" to use a simple lie to cover up a more complex lie.

[BankItDrew]

There's a non-zero chance that BID says "trust me" to use a simple lie to cover up a more complex lie.

Agreed. You would need to establish a baseline first though.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Baseline is BID is a bad liar. This is something a bad liar would do... use ambiguity as a crutch.

How about you do what I think you can't fake as a W... give me one of those awesome BID reads posts.
Two or three of those and I'm guessing you'll be an open book.

Why haven't you done this yet?

[BankItDrew]

I'll post it after my 'lover' accuses me of being a wolf, by bolding himself.

[MadMojoMonkey]

So you're saying that you won't do the single most villagery thing in your playbook unless you're under pressure?

Why?

[MadMojoMonkey]

And dude... If I think you're a wolf, I'm bolding YOU.

It's not like I need to pull the play ong used... his lover was unknown at the time.

[baudib]

I'm not a wolf with rascal because I'd bus him.

What an awesome argument.

Lynch baudib, then when he shows up wolf, lynch the fuck out of me.

it's actually better than your argument, which is that I'm a wolf with rascal because I'm protecting him by saying you're a villager, when I'm really protecting him by casting shade on you by saying you're 90% a villager. wat.

[baudib]

Here's the problem with what you're doing, Ong. You're blathering about a post I made that says I think you're almost certainly a villager, calling it wolfy, while ignoring things more blatantly wolfy -- like Boog's posts today and Luco's stealth vote for you based on absolutely nothing. It's hard to believe you want 100% villa cred coming off a game where you did something stupid as a wolf with the rationale that you'd never be so stupid to do that as a wolf.

Reassess all and average in new info with the old. Stop making mountains of molehills and stop fixating on the idea that you starting the push on Gabe makes Boog clear. It's frankly insane.

Look at how clean the Boog wagon is FFS. This is another big piece of info you are ignoring.

[BankItDrew]

So you're saying that you won't do the single most villagery thing in your playbook unless you're under pressure?

Why?

Messing with you is more fun.

Villagers:
Ongbonga - I think I tone read him better than anyone and I read V this time around
Wufwugy - I believe he was being sincere about his argument for reveal
Baudib - I believe he is honest about not being as interested this game and I think a small part of that is because he's a villager
a500lbgorilla - He was the first player to side with me on the reveal topic

Fence:
Monstrman
LilRascal
Hoppy
Bigred
Keybored
Daven
MMM - His late D1 voting and "I'll protect gabe" stuff has me second guessing myself

Wolves:
Boog - Voting patterns and mentions earlier
Luco - Simple gut feeling

[OngBonga]

It's hard to believe you want 100% villa cred

That's a very much redundant concept in this format. What the fuck do I want with village cred when I'm prepared to lynch my partner, thus resulting in my own death?

[BankItDrew]

fwiw I had to edit my most previous post because it was littered with color coding errors

[MadMojoMonkey]

Messing with you is more fun.

Villagers:
Ongbonga - I think I tone read him better than anyone and I read V this time around
Wufwugy - I believe he was being sincere about his argument for reveal
Baudib - I believe he is honest about not being as interested this game and I think a small part of that is because he's a villager
a500lbgorilla - He was the first player to side with me on the reveal topic

Fence:
Monstrman
LilRascal
Hoppy
Bigred
Keybored
Daven
MMM - His late D1 voting and "I'll protect gabe" stuff has me second guessing myself

Wolves:
Boog - Voting patterns and mentions earlier
Luco - Simple gut feeling

FYP

[BankItDrew]

That's a very much redundant concept in this format. What the fuck do I want with village cred when I'm prepared to lynch my partner, thus resulting in my own death?

I don't believe your self lynch to be indicative of you being a villager at all. If anything, it feels more like something a typical crazy ong wolf would try to get away with, because that's what crazy wolf ong enjoys doing.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Ninja BID!!!

[BankItDrew]

FYP

Thanks.

I appreciate the amount of work you put into this game sometimes, particularly the graphs and charts.

A couple of games ago you did the same thing. It was the chart where there were a bunch of red dots, I believe. Do you remember that?

Can someone remind us if MMM was a wolf or a villager that game?

[MadMojoMonkey]

Baudib - I believe he is honest about not being as interested this game and I think a small part of that is because he's a villager

You think baud was honest in being disinterested... so you're reading baud as disinterested?

[Luco]

Drews gut says I'm a wolf and mojo is suspect.

Drew your gut stinks like this monkey's finger

[baudib]

That's a very much redundant concept in this format. What the fuck do I want with village cred when I'm prepared to lynch my partner, thus resulting in my own death?

Way to ignore the rest of the post for an attempt at more villa cred for something that essentially means nothing when you are currently voting for a villager.

[baudib]

I'm being honest about everything actually.

and yes disinterested me is still ~ top poster in the game.

[monstrman]

Baudib seems to be trending in the right direction.

I am also a fan of stirring the pot

rescind lynch wuf

[baudib]

Daven, Boog, Wuf:

It's about 100% that 1 of you and very likely 2 of you are wolves. If one of you is a villager, you have the most information on the correct lynch for today. I'm a villager, help me lynch the other 2.

[BankItDrew]

You think baud was honest in being disinterested... so you're reading baud as disinterested?

yes

[OngBonga]

I don't believe your self lynch to be indicative of you being a villager at all. If anything, it feels more like something a typical crazy ong wolf would try to get away with, because that's what crazy wolf ong enjoys doing.

I don't care. I think my partner is a wolf. Lynch me and watch me not care.

[BankItDrew]

Drews gut says I'm a wolf and mojo is suspect.

Drew your gut stinks like this monkey's finger

Your posts this game lack substance compared to your previous games.

I think you would be more insightful if you were a villager.

[MadMojoMonkey]

yes

-.-

[Luco]

Baudib I don't think I have ever disagreed with you as much as I have this game.

[monstrman]

I'm being honest about everything actually.

and yes disinterested me is still ~ top poster in the game.

You post a lot as a wolf too.

At the very least you're taking a hard stance on some wolf leans I just want you to tunnel one into the ground in a convincing enough fashion before I call you a villager for sure.

[baudib]

yeah, I still have Drew as the best villager in the game.

[OngBonga]

Way to ignore the rest of the post for an attempt at more villa cred for something that essentially means nothing when you are currently voting for a villager.

Yes please give me village cred. Pleeeeease. I'll use it to get my buddy lynched. Noone would ever expect a wolf to do that.

[monstrman]

I think Drews reasoning to call baudib a villager makes sense given some thought about things.

I can see a reason why baudib would be less interested as a villager than as a wolf and I think drew sees it too

[Luco]

Your posts this game lack substance compared to your previous games.

I think you would be more insightful if you were a villager.

I think the more important issue is whether you laughed at the monkey

[BankItDrew]

I think the more important issue is whether you laughed at the monkey

And this is why I won't bat an eye if you flip villager.

[Luco]

I think Drews reasoning to call baudib a villager makes sense given some thought about things.

I can see a reason why baudib would be less interested as a villager than as a wolf and I think drew sees it too

I don't see his contribution today as less interested. He's right in the thick of it.

[MadMojoMonkey]

I think the more important issue is whether you laughed at the monkey

:humility:

(I laughed. a few times. I might go back and do it again.)