No theme werewolf gameplay thread

[OngBonga]

I came home when didn't need to.

I don't know how I survived but I did, and I'm not even happy about it.

How anyone can say drew is town is a mystery to me. One minute he's all over me, next he hammers gabe from nowhere. And the first thing he says when gabe flips? ong is a wolf. Drew nailed gabe because that's a fistpump mislynch for the wolves, and they leave me as easy meat tomorrow.

It's drew and JKDS all day long.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Sorry, ong, but gabe died for your sins - or something.

I went with you over gabe in that last vote because it was the path of least resistance.

gabe was all over you. There is no way I believe your a village now.

[MadMojoMonkey]

*you're

[OngBonga]

I wish we had a vig.

[Luco]

I came home when didn't need to.

I don't know how I survived but I did, and I'm not even happy about it.

How anyone can say drew is town is a mystery to me. One minute he's all over me, next he hammers gabe from nowhere. And the first thing he says when gabe flips? ong is a wolf. Drew nailed gabe because that's a fistpump mislynch for the wolves, and they leave me as easy meat tomorrow.

It's drew and JKDS all day long.

I know youre tired, frankly im exhausted after these back to back games (god knows how the wolves are feeling) but soldier, we arent done yet

I totally get your position on bid, i do, but a couple of caveats.

gabe said he was v v likely village and gabe is historically very accurate with these sort of statements

also, bids activity is above average for villager drew, let alone wolf drew.

as for the gabe hammer, if the two leading wagons are v then why does bid need to make such an attention grabbing play? bit ballsy for a bidwolf imo

my theory about the meat shield can also apply to drew though, so if hoopy isnt the second its bid

[Luco]

Sorry, ong, but gabe died for your sins - or something.

I went with you over gabe in that last vote because it was the path of least resistance.

gabe was all over you. There is no way I believe your a village now.

if ong r wolf whos the 4th?

[Luco]

answer: THERE IS NO 4TH

[OngBonga]

Actually I think drew is a villager ffs. If he's a wolf, why would he hammer gabe and take the shit that comes with that when he knows I'll do it as soon as I get here? Obviously I vote gabe at L-1, obviously the wolves would expect me to.

If drew is a wolf that's a really slick move.

[Luco]

Actually I think drew is a villager ffs. If he's a wolf, why would he hammer gabe and take the shit that comes with that when he knows I'll do it as soon as I get here? Obviously I vote gabe at L-1, obviously the wolves would expect me to.

If drew is a wolf that's a really slick move.

Exactly.

Looking back at d2 hoopy looks really bad if jkds is a wolf. i mean he hasnt even mentioned rilla and then he just comes all out on him as soon as jkds hits 3. rilla would jump on that idea in the den im sure of it

[OngBonga]

A jkds and rilla team makes a lot of the votes on rilla null at best. I'd exposed rilla already, while JKDS was in a decent spot, so it makes sense for them to throw rilla under the bus.

idk I'm all werewolfed out tbh. I'm not looking forward to tomorrow. I think I'm gonna sit the night phase out.

[Keybored]

Monday night football...sleep...brain dump...reset

[BankItDrew]

Monday night football

this

i'll be here all night

if anyone wants to chat about any one particular player, i'll provide my opinions and do a bit of research on them with you

[MadMojoMonkey]

BID, who are your top villager picks?

If you take them out of the player pool... who's left for wolves?

If you eliminate combos that don't make sense... who are your picks for the wolves?

[MadMojoMonkey]

I don't see how there's not a wolf in JKDS/ong. They're both hard to read and complex players.
Gabe thought the wolf was ong.
I've thought ong was wolfy on every game day... just that he's ong so he toes the line every time.

Here's my list

Village:
MMM
Keybored
Dhuber
BID

IDK:
Luco
Hoops

wolfy:
JKDS
Ong

So if it def not both ong and JKDS, then who is the 4th? Luco or Hoopy?
only if JKDS is the wolf and they had no choice on day 2.

so JKDS, then.

Damn, though I like Luco as village... and I'm not 100% on BID as village.

so

prob its JKDS/Hoopy
but could be JKDS/BID

[JKDS]

Are you people seriously arguing that the wolves had no choice but to lynch Rilla 2 hours before deadline, when I was at 4 votes?

For what reason? You say to provide myself with cover? Show me where I voted rilla. A few of you thought before gabe's lynch that I didnt have anything to do with the lynch. This is cover?

Follow me, and kill ong. Then keybored. Then lets celebrate.

[JKDS]

A jkds and rilla team makes a lot of the votes on rilla null at best. I'd exposed rilla already, while JKDS was in a decent spot, so it makes sense for them to throw rilla under the bus.

idk I'm all werewolfed out tbh. I'm not looking forward to tomorrow. I think I'm gonna sit the night phase out.

Paraphrased: "Lets not do Vote Count Analysis, as it would catch Keybored". "I need to wolf thread, so heres an excuse".

[MadMojoMonkey]

Are you people seriously arguing that the wolves had no choice but to lynch Rilla 2 hours before deadline, when I was at 4 votes?

For what reason? You say to provide myself with cover? Show me where I voted rilla. A few of you thought before gabe's lynch that I didnt have anything to do with the lynch. This is cover?

Follow me, and kill ong. Then keybored. Then lets celebrate.

No the argument is that IF you are a wolf, then the fact that the only other wagon was rilla means that the votes on day2 are not as strong a confirmation for villagers than we had been treating them.

It doesn't mean they don't matter.

[JKDS]

Why doesnt it? Why would wolves not have just been on my wagon to start? They chose to avoid lynching one wolf to lynch another? You guys are speaking crazy.

[JKDS]

I just looked. Rilla was voting Dhuber when he got lynched. So, except for a jkds-dhuber team, you guys are suggesting that neither myself nor rilla voted wolves, so hoopy/luco/bid must have voted rilla b/c they had to for cover purposes.

Can you not see why this is silly? You have to make far less logical leaps of faith in considering that Ong is a wolf. Hes not as dumb as you people seem to think.

[JKDS]

Look at keybored. His votes are all 'flavor of the month'. For all the original thought you guys claim he has, he isnt exactly providing astonishing insights or challenging viewpoints. Hes playng like how I'd expect a newer wolf to play. Level 0, lynching villagers.

A keybored-ong team looks really attractive, and makes a lot of sense if the wolves (or just ong) thought a dead wolf day 1 was beneficial to kill our intimidating 4 saves and revive power.

[Keybored]

Paraphrased: "Lets not do Vote Count Analysis, as it would catch Keybored". "I need to wolf thread, so heres an excuse".

What in thee freak are you saying here? Is this supposed to be a political ad where you mash people's words up to make your point? JKDS, this is desperate and, quite frankly, beneath you. It's gonna be a long day if yur starting it off like this.

Take off the blinders, open yourself to more possibilities, and see the world.

[JKDS]

Its interesting that you havent asked ong to take off his blinders on me.

[JKDS]

jkds - ong
luco - keith
mmm - baud
rilla - keith
key - jkds
keith - bid
gabe - baud
dhubs - ong
bid - ong
baud - ong
ong - baud
daven - baud

hoopy - nobody

ong - 4
keith - 2
baud - 4 (lead)
jkds - 1
bid - 1

key - dhubs
ong - rilla
bid - rilla
luco - rilla
hoopy - rilla
jkds - ong
mmm - rilla
daven - jkds
rilla - dhubs
gabe - key
dhubs - ong

dhubs - 2
rilla - 5 (lead)
ong - 2
jkds 1
key - 1

I think so.

Me, hoopy, keybored, luco, and BID seals it.

These are the endday vote counts.

Those who voted Baudib: mmm, gabe, ong, daven
Those who voted Rilla: ong, bid, luco, hoopy, mmm
Those who voted Gabe: MMM, hoopy, keybored, luco, bid.

Luco, hoopy, and bid are villagers due to their day 2 lynch. MMM lynched both wolves. None of these 4 are likely to be a wolf. Keybored though, was on neither wolf wagon and voted gabe.

Now consider ong. Seriously consider him. You guys all want to assume one of luco/bid/hoopy are leveling here and ploting to throw rilla under the bus. Why isnt the same treatment being given to ong? Couldnt he have done this? His vote on rilla was after rilla reached majority. His push on baudib could easily be to put him into the dead thread. Is this really so much less likely than assuming a last minute lynch on rilla makes sense as a wolf?

[BankItDrew]

BID, who are your top villager picks?

I'll do you one better and give an updated reads list

MMM:

lynch baudib

MMM is a villager because he's done nothing but provide good analysis and strategy throughout the entire game. Easily the best player when it comes to post:quality ratios. Secondly, he started the rilla wagon. Thirdly, baudib stated numerous times that MMM is very villagery. I don't believe baudib re-iterates this point so many times if MMM was a wolf.

Strongest village reads so far are MMM/Hoopy.

More evidence that MMM is a villager:

Rilla is wolfy as sin - overly, blatantly wolfy - and he's asking for a pass... 'cause lolz.
lynch a500lbgorilla

This is a solid read imo:

The mostly village:
MMM
Gabe - his reads are leading strong villagers to strong decisions
JKDS - he's the only one to offer a sensible take on Keith & Daven
BID - His ww skills are much improved and if he's faking V... damn.
Hoopy - He and Luco made the rilla lynch happen after JKDS showed.
Luco - Same as Hoopy

JKDS:
He makes a good point about not lynching daven on Day 1, something he didn't need to say, something that was good strat to think about for the village.

Why lynch daven? He said he'd be afk for 50 hours before the game even started. He'd be unable to even use his saves if he flipped vil.

I don't think baudib makes the following post with JKDS as a teammate:

Finally people making sense here. I think JKDS and I read Ong better than most of you.

Ong and luco are strongly in my villager camp after my read through. After going through Day 3 conversations between luco and ong with JKDS, I'm putting JKDS in my wolfyish camp.
Gabe's reads were very good in this game, not unlike any other:

i feel like the 2nd possibility is likely enough that we really have to consider jkds

Although, JKDS has made a few good posts that I agree with, most recently:

Luco, hoopy, and bid are villagers due to their day 2 lynch. MMM lynched both wolves. None of these 4 are likely to be a wolf. Keybored though, was on neither wolf wagon and voted gabe.

Dhuber:

Keith
Ong
Huber

I think you get 1-2 wolves here a good % of the time.

I've been hung up on this post ever since he made it. Baudib probably hides a wolf in here and Huber is more suspect than ong.

I've finally rolled vanilla.

this is the first WW match where I am neither or Wolf or a Special

I am definitely Villager

This is my thinking as well (except the fact that I'm a Villager).

As far as my role is concerned, all I can say is that I'm a Villager

we'll see how it all shakes out and I'm up for answering any direct questions for those who are suspicious of me, as I want the Village to win.

but if that happens and when I flip village-friendly

This sort of chatter tilts me so much.





Ong:

You're contradicting yourself while refusing to take a position on keith. And you finish off by deflecting onto someone else.
Wolfy as fuck.
lynch baudib

I've changed my mind on ong. He's a villager, especially after everything that happened between him and baudib on Day 1. The reason I was so hard on ong was that I thought I found a tell, and because I was convinced that the wolves wanted to control the ghost angel. These two reasons are both speculative with very little substance behind them.

lynch rilla
A quiet rilla should be a dead rilla.

more evidence that ong is a villager:

I like a rilla lynch a little bit more after seeing this post again.
Oh hey rilla's here.
rilla why aren't you hunting?

Keybored:

I voted for Baud only after I discovered there was such a thing as a revenge vote. I'd planned to keep last game in the past. That and I honestly get tired of his endless banter... Let's hang the right person for the best reasons today.

This post tilts me all day long. It's just plain bad village strat.

I'd caution ppl to limit their night chat or keep it on a day zero type level.

This too, is something I disagree with.

lynch keybored because I could see him as a wolf saying not to post at night. As a villager it's fun to post so I would never think to encourage something that would make me able to post less (since I'm a villager)

The following bolding was the final post of Day 2. It was so pointless that it makes me wonder why the hell he would do it:

Rescind and Lynch DHUBERMEX

I just can't ever see a reason to think MMM is a wolf. If he is, he's been the best wolf I've ever seen. So why would keybored do this:

Lynch MadMojoMonkey

His justification for bolding MMM is this, which is bad imo:

MMM has been hacking the whole game. He's hard for me to read but I def don't see any true hunting and his anti-villager comment to me/doobs is telling of his true nature. Also, BID's bff comment to him above makes me nervous. Could easily be den-chattiness spilling over into game thread. I'm hard wolf on him right now.

My top two wolves are Keyborred and huber, huber less so, partly because of this:

Dhoobs clearly had it but didn't see the big picture. And he's been bamboozled ever since. He's an easy lynch today.

The following is incriminating:

Oh, hey Hoopy. Almost forgot you were playing.

FWIW, I understand my read about you wasn't all smileys and lollz, but I'm pretty sure everyone agrees with me. But keep in mind, after the 3rd wolf (gabe probly) hangs, the lynchings will certainly run me & doobs, then you.

He's implying that everyone agrees with him but I don't see anywhere when someone said they did. Speaking for other players is not a villagery sign.

Hoopy:

I agree with most of the posts that Hoopy has made, so it's hard for me to come up with a strong arguement against him.

rilla is not a villager.
lynch rilla

I believe hoopy was the second player on the rilla wagon when it was heavy on JKDS. It's important imo to remember that Luco jumped on immediately as well.

Luco:

Ong is a villager. so is mmm, hoopy, keybored, daven and drew.
the wolves are in gabe, huber, jkds, rilla

I agree with this quite a bit. Luco was right about daven and myself. Wrong about gabe (I eventually voted gabe too though), and right about rilla. I'm currently suspect of huber.

More evidence that Luco is a villager:

lynch rilla

Anyways, that's it for now. I hope this helps.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Pull it together BID.

List the living
List the villagers
Eliminate bad w/w combos.

What are viable combos?

[BankItDrew]

Pull it together BID.

List the living
List the villagers
Eliminate bad w/w combos.

What are viable combos?

jesus murphy you are hard to please

living:
MMM
BID
Hoopy
Luco
Keyborred
Huber
Ong
JKDS

Villagers:
Ong
Hoopy
MMM
BID
Luco

Wolves:
Dhuber
Keyborred
JKDS

I think the best combo of wolves is:
Keyborred
Dubermex

I'm discounting JKDS because I'm more on the fence with him than the other two.

[Luco]

I feel bad because I've been overly abrasive with dhuber this game and he might not even be a wolf

I think I might have expected too much because of his strong performance last game (binked two wolves d1 + epic angel save)

[Hoopy]

Ong's interactions with baudib are interesting. I guess the wolves didn't mind losing someone because of the ghost angel control, the fact there was no block day 1 suggests they were prepared for this even if they didn't intend it. Hard to say if ong is a wolf just from this.

His late jump on rilla actually seems like a villager thing to do. I think a wolf is more aware of the meta implications of being a late bandwagoner, where as a villager just does it without thinking too much.

JKDS and Ong can't both be wolves. That would mean Ong has got one wolf lynched and was pushing for JKDS to go on day 2 as well. The sudden shift to rilla would mean the wolves are banking on one lone wolf to win this game instead of playing as a team.

[Luco]

Ong's interactions with baudib are interesting. I guess the wolves didn't mind losing someone because of the ghost angel control, the fact there was no block day 1 suggests they were prepared for this even if they didn't intend it. Hard to say if ong is a wolf just from this.

His late jump on rilla actually seems like a villager thing to do. I think a wolf is more aware of the meta implications of being a late bandwagoner, where as a villager just does it without thinking too much.

JKDS and Ong can't both be wolves. That would mean Ong has got one wolf lynched and was pushing for JKDS to go on day 2 as well. The sudden shift to rilla would mean the wolves are banking on one lone wolf to win this game instead of playing as a team.

In regular games lone wolf plans are risky because seer, but there's no seer in this game

[Hoopy]

In regular games lone wolf plans are risky because seer, but there's no seer in this game

But still it's pretty difficult for both ong and JKDS to be wolves right?

[Hoopy]

The Ong jump onto baudib wagon is highly suspicious imo, and is prompting me to change my initial read. I think baudib is a likely Day 1 lynch (besides myself) and this decision could cost my own neck but I think there's something to read in Ong's post (and its timing) to lynch someone who could very likely go early.

Therefore...

Rescind Keith

Lynch Ong

Risky play if dhuber is a wolf, especially if the wolves didn't mind baudib dying to control the dead thread. Could make sense if Ong is a wolf as well.

[Hoopy]

I feel the same way... not that I was ever good to begin with.

Responding to JKDS saying he's terrible at WW now. Idk I get the feeling this is something he would say to JKDS in the wolf den if they're both wolves.

[Keybored]

Why would wolves not have just been on my wagon to start? They chose to avoid lynching one wolf to lynch another? You guys are speaking crazy.

Rilla, despite his rep, was a no-show this game.
Was that a ruse to throw off his wolf tells? maybe
But it could have been that he was disinterested altogether.
If so, it's totally possible to push one wolf then switch to another.
Crazy, brilliant strat. But it's possible.

Also about this post from JK...he's starting to get emotional now.
I seem to recall he blasted Ong for hating too.

Emotional, linear thinking is a weakness.
It means bad villager or wolf.

[OngBonga]

Paraphrased: "Lets not do Vote Count Analysis, as it would catch Keybored". "I need to wolf thread, so heres an excuse".

No.

[Hoopy]

I feel the same way... not that I was ever good to begin with.

Look ppl...stop feeling guilty for yourselves.
We popped one right off the bat!
Now use what you got to help sniff out the next one.
FWIW, I'm not worried about how the dead thread stacks up as long as it fills with wolves.

I don't think a wolf would say this.

[Keybored]

HOOPY’S LINEAR LIFE:
*These are all his posts, none edited except to rem spaces for condensing.

10th@17:00 POST #1 BEGIN DAY 1 . . . .

10th/17:21 Post #4

This is going to be crazy.

- - - - - - - -
11th/13:25 Post 54

baudib has 23 posts already, wow. I don't want to lynch him today because a) activity and b) D1 modkill last game.

11th/13:33 Post 55

I could go for a BID lynch to remind him he's no longer god. Or Keybored because he hasn't received the customary D1 newb lynch yet.

- - - - - - - -
12th/06:14 Post 84

So if rilla, keybored and daven don't post by the end of day 1 do they get modkilled? That's gonna influence our lynch today.

12th/06:18 Post 85

That's a good point, so lynching any awol player today is probably bad. dhuber lynch today?

- - - - - - - -
13th/05:44 Post 140

Alright, thanks for clarifying wufmod.

13th/05:57 Post 141

I've never really liked forcing everyone onto 2 wagons but I think it's a viable strat. Today though I think we should just let the day play out normally.

13th/06:07 Post 142

Hmmm baudib thinks I'm a villager, slightly surprised by that so early in the game. Regardless I'm not lynching him today, he's giving out so much info that if he's wolfing it'll become apparent soon enough. And if he's a villager it's good to have someone so active.

13th/06:18 Post 143

Nothing personal drew. lynch BankitDrew Dangerous to let him reach the endgame imo.

- - - - - - - -
14th/03:39 Post 209

Good post by drew. Alright I'll rescind, probably basing too much on past games. Being a villager in endgame is more difficult than picking angel saves though.

14th/05:18 Post 215

We've never seen dhuber as a villager.

14th/14:16 Post 245

Don't want to lynch baudib today, or anyone really now that drew made a good post. Should have remembered that.

14th/16:50 Post 266

Got the same count, with BID and JKDS both on 1. lynch keith For wanting to kill a villager rather than a wolf today.

14th/16:52 Post 267

rescind keith Nahhhthat's a bad vote, keith is probably a villager going for the lateral thinking play.

14th/17:00 POST 271 END DAY 1 (Baudib Lynched) / BEGIN NIGHT 1 . . . .

14th/17:06 Post 275

Fuck I thought we had a few more hours.

- - - - - - - -
15th/03:28 Post 303

daven, ong, gabe, mmm were all on the baudib wagon. I'm thinking all of them are villagers, especially daven.

15th/16:36 POST 333 END NIGHT 1 (Keith Killed) / BEGIN DAY 2 . . . .

16th/04:21 Post 358

huber is making me nervous, going to read through his posts to see if anything stands out. It'll be a perfect storm.

16th/04:47 Post 362

dhuber keeps on saying how he's a villager and wants to help the village.

16th/15:58 Post 384

Think about this, I could have killed Ong yesterday and saved baduib. It would have been consistent with my thinking that baudib wasn't a wolf. Despite what keith said I don't think controlling the angels for 1 night was that important to the wolves, keeping their numbers up is more important. And I didn't cast suspicion on just everyone, I haven't even mentioned 1/2 the people playing.

16th/16:09 Post 385

JKDS with the low post count, last time he was this quiet he was.............a wolf!

16th/16:13 Post 386

But would JKDS defend a fellow wolf so obviously? Seems risky with how close the voting was.

- - - - - - - -
17th/14:41 Post 418

I know I've been quiet this game, real life stuff is the reason for that. Not feeling a JKDS lynch today, strong effort in his last few posts. rilla is not a villager. lynch rilla

17th/14:42 Post 419

Get on the rilla wagon my man.

17th/15:12 Post 421

One post right after the other, both look weird to me.

17th/17:02 POST 434 END DAY 2 (Rilla Lynched) / BEGIN NIGHT 2 . . . .

17th/17:17 Post 439

Village is balling. Wolves be falling.

17th/17:51 POST 444 END NIGHT 2 (Daven Killed) / BEGIN DAY 3 . . . .

18th/13:56 Post 479

Luco is not a wolf, he switched to rilla right after I pushed the wagon. No way the wolves actively try and get another wolf dead with the way this game is going.

18th/17:10 Post 488

Does baudib really point this out if dhuber is also a wolfie? I think he'd just say something in the wolf thread.

- - - - - - - -
20th/03:44 Post 570

This is a really good point by drew. JKDS's last post before he was about to get lynched looks very villagery. Some internal wolf humor?

20th/04:10 Post 571

lynch gabe gabe is a wolf guys, he's way too quiet and lurking in the background. This post is on night 1. Obviously keith got nommed instead, this just seems a very gabe like play to me. Say something definite when you already know the opposite will happen.

20th/04:14 Post 572

JKDS #560 is a great argument for why dhuber is not a wolf, everybody who's on him should rescind.

20th/04:32 Post 574

I think the last one is keybored.

20th/14:45 POST 664 END DAY 3 (Gabe Lynched) / BEGIN NIGHT 3 . . . .

20th/15:14 Post 668

Well, that sucks. Sorry gabe. I'm gonna have to reevaluate Ong and JKDS, they can't both be wolves.

20th/15:23 Post 670

Scratch that, I gonna have to rethink this whole game. Only thing I feel confident on is BID and Luco being villagers.

20th/15:27 Post 672

I can't remember why I thought MMM was a villager, something to do with day 1 voting?

20th/15:28 Post 673

I won't miss anymore fun!

- - - - - - - -
21st/04:16 Post 703

Ong's interactions with baudib are interesting. I guess the wolves didn't mind losing someone because of the ghost angel control, the fact there was no block day 1 suggests they were prepared for this even if they didn't intend it. Hard to say if ong is a wolf just from this. His late jump on rilla actually seems like a villager thing to do. I think a wolf is more aware of the meta implications of being a late bandwagoner, where as a villager just does it without thinking too much. JKDS and Ong can't both be wolves. That would mean Ong has got one wolf lynched and was pushing for JKDS to go on day 2 as well. The sudden shift to rilla would mean the wolves are banking on one lone wolf to win this game instead of playing as a team.

21st/04:40 Post 705

But still it's pretty difficult for both ong and JKDS to be wolves right?

21st/05:17 Post 706

Risky play if dhuber is a wolf, especially if the wolves didn't mind baudib dying to control the dead thread. Could make sense if Ong is a wolf as well.

21st/05:25 Post 707

Responding to JKDS saying he's terrible at WW now. Idk I get the feeling this is something he would say to JKDS in the wolf den if they're both wolves.

Here's a few facts about Hoopy:
1) He has posted 39x of the 700+ (low 5% participation rate).
2) He spews very little, few of his posts are more than 1 or 2 sentences (low content rate).
3) He's posted every calendar day except one (consistent).
4) He usually posts 2x each day, 2-4x in the morning, 2-4x late afternoon (extremely consistent).
5) His activity has declined as game goes on, gets harder (14 posts--d1, 8 posts--d2, 6 posts--d3).
6) He voted 2x d1--BID/Keith, but rescinded both and missed the vote; 1x d2--Rilla; 1x d3--Gabe (1:3 vote record).
7) He doesn't chat much or make small talk, hasn't chimed in on anything non-game related that's popped up.
8) He's 'mourned' the loss of only one person, Gabe.
9) He's responded directly to one attack.
10) He has not posted a reads list.

This person is an absolute machine!
And it's extremely difficult to see a wolf in someone behaving so methodically.

But two things have caught my attention:
1) D1 vote missed! But he'd posted 2x in the minutes b4 deadline and once 6 mins right after deadline. The deadline was clearly defined. I have a hard time understanding how someone so methodical and consistent can miss something so clear and important. This was either a wolf trick to cast off suspicion or a major mistake.
2) Caught Lurking! As D3 ended in a whirlwind of activity he deliberately withheld. He made his usual 4x morning posts, probly went to work, then waited 29 minutes after majority reached (at 14:35) to make his usual 4x afternoon posts.

I believe Hoopy is making such a conscious effort to remain consistent because he's a wolf trying to fly under the radar. His low post count is a standard wolf tactic. He strives for neutrality and offers very little opinion. His lack of interpersonal contact means he's deliberately hiding his vulnerabilities. He feigns hunting with innuendo and not by direct attack.

[JKDS]

Ong's interactions with baudib are interesting. I guess the wolves didn't mind losing someone because of the ghost angel control, the fact there was no block day 1 suggests they were prepared for this even if they didn't intend it. Hard to say if ong is a wolf just from this.

I still dont understand the ghost angel stuff. Humor me. Suppose baudib was intentionally sent to the dead thread. Would the wolves then block or not block a kill? If they would block, then ong is a villager and ive made an ass out of myself.

[JKDS]

My problem with the ghost angel stuff is that its not intuitive for me. It seems like the revive thing only happens if the deadthread successfully blocks two kills...but that would put the village in a good position and then give them a new player. Meanwhile if they dont block, theyre in a bad position and dont get a player. I think. I still dont get it. If this is a correct interpretation, then it would make sense for wolves not to block since that is clearly better for them...but i dont see how it can be a correct interpretation.

[MadMojoMonkey]

How on earth is Keybored ever a wolf? ever? in a million years?

This post is just 1 example of him doing real, heavy lifting for the village.

BID needs to respond to this fact to explain his key/doob hypothesis.

***
Hoopy looks terrible up to a point, at which point he start to look better.
Why does hoopy seem so wolfy in the early game?
I had him pegged as strong wolf right up until the rilla vote, and the subsequent bro-love coming from Luco.
That forced me to do a 180 on my hoopy read.

***
Being overly consistent is a wolf-sign, not a vil-sign.
Wolves know everything important right from the start of the game.
Villagers have to figure it all out. Villagers respond and react to new information and change their minds.

That level of timing consistency is a life-read more than a game read (I think).

***
Low content is a wolf-sign. The less a wolf says, the less evidence there is to point at, and the more interpretation is required to create a strong argument against.

(Take my argument against rilla... it wouldn't have taken much from him to force me to recant that read so close to a deadline... exhibit JKDS. The thing about JKDS is that he's a law student. I assume that involves practicing arguing a lot. A lawyer must be very careful and sensitive to not accidentally give the opposing lawyers any ideas. They choose their words and arguments to stay as far from any concession to the opposition as possible.
It's like wolf training.
This opinion of mine is what makes me 2nd guess everything JKDS writes. I acknowledge that it may be unfair, but I can't shake it.)

[Keybored]

Yah...I posed a similar q about this way back on d1 but got nobody to bite. The way I see it, if all the dead are voting and can see each other's votes (cuz presumably they're voting like we do here) the two wolves would be giving away who the other wolves are (thru they're vote similarity/consistency) to the dead villagers among them.

And after the revive happens, isn't that person unfairly armed? If the rule is that the revived can't talk about Fight Club back here that's only minimally different because he need not speak to anyone at all and just come out with a snap vote.

Seems to me the best tactic for the dead wolves would be to not vote any protects and just let the dead V's battle that out. Thus, they wouldn't be giving away any info for the revived to convey back here.

But, IMO, there's no way Baudib isn't all over this protect thing. Hell, there's probly a higher post count in the dead thread than here.

[MadMojoMonkey]

My problem with the ghost angel stuff is that its not intuitive for me. It seems like the revive thing only happens if the deadthread successfully blocks two kills...but that would put the village in a good position and then give them a new player. Meanwhile if they dont block, theyre in a bad position and dont get a player. I think. I still dont get it. If this is a correct interpretation, then it would make sense for wolves not to block since that is clearly better for them...but i dont see how it can be a correct interpretation.

How can you be confused about this at this point?

[MadMojoMonkey]

And after the revive happens, isn't that person unfairly armed? If the rule is that the revived can't talk about Fight Club back here that's only minimally different because he need not speak to anyone at all and just come out with a snap vote.

There were 4 wolves at the start of this game, when 3 would have been 'standard'.
There is no angel or vigilante in the village.

The ghost angel system is a clever way to keep the dead involved in the game, and give some powers to the village.
However, as the power it gives is huge, it has to conditions.

The conditions are that the village gets no specials at all, and the revive has a gating condition.

[Keybored]

Its interesting that you havent asked ong to take off his blinders on me.

You've been hounding Ong incessantly the whole game. Ignoring most other activity.
Ong has been all over the place.

I've already made my position clear about you and it has only gotten stronger.

Here's how the other 11 have behaved toward you:
5 players have either voted you dead or declared you wolf, without recanting:
--4 still living (MMM, Luco, Ong, Hoopy)
--1 dead (Daven)

2 dead wolves don't factor (Baud/Rilla)

3 have chosen not take your side (Dhoobs/Gabe/Keith)

1 guy (BID) is your ally.

Nearly the entire village is leaning wolf on you or called all in completely.

[OngBonga]

JKDS is confused about the angels.

JKDS is pretending to be confused about the angels.

[Hoopy]

I believe Hoopy is making such a conscious effort to remain consistent because he's a wolf trying to fly under the radar. His low post count is a standard wolf tactic. He strives for neutrality and offers very little opinion. His lack of interpersonal contact means he's deliberately hiding his vulnerabilities. He feigns hunting with innuendo and not by direct attack.

Keybored I'm not a wolf and I don't think you are either anymore. That post is villager through and through.

[Hoopy]

Here's a few facts about Hoopy:
2) He spews very little, few of his posts are more than 1 or 2 sentences (low content rate).
4) He usually posts 2x each day, 2-4x in the morning, 2-4x late afternoon (extremely consistent).
7) He doesn't chat much or make small talk, hasn't chimed in on anything non-game related that's popped up.

This person is an absolute machine!

He strives for neutrality and offers very little opinion. His lack of interpersonal contact means he's deliberately hiding his vulnerabilities.

Honestly it's kind of scary how well you've described me here.

If you look back several games you'll see I normally play on the quieter side, this game is an exaggeration of that so far for various reasons.

[Hoopy]

I still dont understand the ghost angel stuff. Humor me. Suppose baudib was intentionally sent to the dead thread. Would the wolves then block or not block a kill? If they would block, then ong is a villager and ive made an ass out of myself.

Surely they would not block, because getting blocks leads the village eventually getting a revived player who has insider info which could be very powerful.

Plus they want villagers to die each night.

[Hoopy]

Lock Village
BID
Hoops
Luco

Very Likely Village
MMM
Keybored

Possible Wolves
JKDS
Dhuber
Ong

[MadMojoMonkey]

Honestly it's kind of scary how well you've described me here.

If you look back several games you'll see I normally play on the quieter side, this game is an exaggeration of that so far for various reasons.

Did hoopy just take the rilla denefse?

Maybe check with your lawyer next time before you do that.

[MadMojoMonkey]

*defense

[OngBonga]

*defence

Nation of langauge rapists.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Surely they would not block, because getting blocks leads the village eventually getting a revived player who has insider info which could be very powerful.

Plus they want villagers to die each night.

That's Hoopy saying that the activation gating condition on the revive has been the same all game, along with JKDS.

Wuf changed the rule yesterday. Before that it was the angels must NOT have used 2 saves to get the revive.

NOW it's the angels must use 2 saves to get the revive.

The notion that it's been the same all game is untrue and dramatically changes how we read the actual events that happened.
I.e. the wolves did not block noms.


Under the rule that in place on nights 1 and 2, this plays toward the wolves NOT blocking the revive.

Under the current rule, it plays toward the wolves blocking the revive.


and it please you

[MadMojoMonkey]

*defence

Nation of langauge rapists.

[MadMojoMonkey]

IDK what happened, but that was a jpg of invader Zim.

Zim: I put the fires out!
Tallest: You made it worse.
Zim: worse... or better?

[dhubermex]

To Luco,

No worries on the harshness. I think your point is valid and I'm glad you're picking up on it. The truth is that I've been "following along" with the thread rather than meticulously going back and analyzing what has been said and comparing the timing. There are definite disadvantages to this and anyone is more than welcome (even entitled to imo) call out players who are not as thorough. I don't take it personally regardless of how roles shake out, and the reason why I haven't gone over everything with a fine-tooth comb is mainly work-related.

With that said, another reason is that I feel there are certain disadvantages to over-analysis. I discovered this when modding the Gold Rush match and also felt this was a minor hindrance during the most recent anon-match. Again, in my opinion, there were clear-cut wolves "aroooing" in both matches there were overlooked due to over-thinking things by certain villagers. Of course my sample size is extremely small and I could be mistaken... we'll just have to see how this ends.

I have provided reasons why I believe Ong/Keybored/Luco are best wolf candidates at this time. If it ultimately turns out that the fine-tooth comb method outs wolves, then that's great, but this is two-games in a row where I've felt there are obvious indicators in which my role should have been mass-distinguished as a villager, yet there are several suspicious players still placing me in potential wolf category (more players than possible wolves as a matter of fact).

So my own thoughts remain...

Likely Village: me, MMM, BID, JKDS, Hoopy
Likely Wolves: Ong, Keybored, Luco

When a new post comes up accusing someone of being a particular role, I do go back and look at it to see if the argument fits with my line of thinking. Despite that, I remain unconvinced even after Ong's newfound clarity after I rescinded penultimate lynch-vote to make sure he wasn't lynched without the opportunity to make more of a case). However, I think it is fair for villagers working on roles to be aware that Luco's assumptions on my participation (although a bit "harsh") are geniune, and also be aware of how I'm drawing my conclusions.

[MadMojoMonkey]

With that said, another reason is that I feel there are certain disadvantages to over-analysis. I discovered this when modding the Gold Rush match and also felt this was a minor hindrance during the most recent anon-match. Again, in my opinion, there were clear-cut wolves "aroooing" in both matches there were overlooked due to over-thinking things by certain villagers. Of course my sample size is extremely small and I could be mistaken... we'll just have to see how this ends.

[...]

after I rescinded penultimate lynch-vote to make sure he wasn't lynched without the opportunity to make more of a case). However, I think it is fair for villagers working on roles to be aware that Luco's assumptions on my participation (although a bit "harsh") are geniune, and also be aware of how I'm drawing my conclusions.

Didn't even have to go to 2 different posts to find a contradiction, there.

[Keybored]

Hoops...I'm not all in for u as lock wolf. But I fear you as the sleeper wolf. And I want everyone to be aware of that danger too. Cuz I think most have not considered u much at all. Your behavior is an outlier that can't be tossed out yet. Also, I'd like you to open up more. Show us what your thinking...

[Hoopy]

That's Hoopy saying that the activation gating condition on the revive has been the same all game, along with JKDS.

Wuf changed the rule yesterday. Before that it was the angels must NOT have used 2 saves to get the revive.

NOW it's the angels must use 2 saves to get the revive.

The notion that it's been the same all game is untrue and dramatically changes how we read the actual events that happened.
I.e. the wolves did not block noms.


Under the rule that in place on nights 1 and 2, this plays toward the wolves NOT blocking the revive.

Under the current rule, it plays toward the wolves blocking the revive.


and it please you

I don't get what you're saying here, surely the wolves still have no incentive to allow blocks to happen?

Besides the village controls the angels tonight.

[Hoopy]

Hoops...I'm not all in for u as lock wolf. But I fear you as the sleeper wolf. And I want everyone to be aware of that danger too. Cuz I think most have not considered u much at all. Your behavior is an outlier that can't be tossed out yet. Also, I'd like you to open up more. Show us what your thinking...

I'm thinking your head might explode since I've posted 6 times today!

My idea is to try and rule out possible pairs of wolves. For example JKDS and Ong aren't both wolves together. 2 wolves cannot fake a 2 day protracted argument with so much shit flinging in my experience. Likewise dhuber and baudib don't make much sense as a wolf pair with baduib's "WIFOM" comment, this is less certain though.

I think Luco and BID are villagers because of how the rilla wagon went down. Them both being wolves would mean that they deliberately decided to kill another wolf on day 2 instead of a villager, what benefit do they get for that? Angel control?

[BankItDrew]

1 guy (BID) is your ally.

This isn't true if you are implying that I support JKDS. He's in my top 3 list of wolves.

[Luco]

To Luco,

No worries on the harshness. I think your point is valid and I'm glad you're picking up on it. The truth is that I've been "following along" with the thread rather than meticulously going back and analyzing what has been said and comparing the timing. There are definite disadvantages to this and anyone is more than welcome (even entitled to imo) call out players who are not as thorough. I don't take it personally regardless of how roles shake out, and the reason why I haven't gone over everything with a fine-tooth comb is mainly work-related.

With that said, another reason is that I feel there are certain disadvantages to over-analysis. I discovered this when modding the Gold Rush match and also felt this was a minor hindrance during the most recent anon-match. Again, in my opinion, there were clear-cut wolves "aroooing" in both matches there were overlooked due to over-thinking things by certain villagers. Of course my sample size is extremely small and I could be mistaken... we'll just have to see how this ends.

I have provided reasons why I believe Ong/Keybored/Luco are best wolf candidates at this time. If it ultimately turns out that the fine-tooth comb method outs wolves, then that's great, but this is two-games in a row where I've felt there are obvious indicators in which my role should have been mass-distinguished as a villager, yet there are several suspicious players still placing me in potential wolf category (more players than possible wolves as a matter of fact).

So my own thoughts remain...

Likely Village: me, MMM, BID, JKDS, Hoopy
Likely Wolves: Ong, Keybored, Luco

When a new post comes up accusing someone of being a particular role, I do go back and look at it to see if the argument fits with my line of thinking. Despite that, I remain unconvinced even after Ong's newfound clarity after I rescinded penultimate lynch-vote to make sure he wasn't lynched without the opportunity to make more of a case). However, I think it is fair for villagers working on roles to be aware that Luco's assumptions on my participation (although a bit "harsh") are geniune, and also be aware of how I'm drawing my conclusions.

Every time I start to think youre a villager you have to ruin it by posting.

[BankItDrew]

Likely Wolves: Ong, Keybored, Luco

I think a wolf would put one buddy in this list. I think Luco and Ong are villagers so therefore, it's Keybored and Huber. Just like I said.

[Luco]

dhubs could you restate your cases against ong, key and myself? i forgot what they were

[Hoopy]

I think a wolf would put one buddy in this list. I think Luco and Ong are villagers so therefore, it's Keybored and Huber. Just like I said.

Why do you think Ong is a villager drew?

[BankItDrew]

Why do you think Ong is a villager drew?

Read my updated reads list above.

[Keybored]

Every time I start to think youre a villager (Dhubermex) you have to ruin it by posting.

I know, right? It's why I stopped my wagon on him. Nobody was biting so I figured I'd just let him speak for me. There's a strong possibility (and danger) for a sleeper between Dhuber and Hoops.

[Keybored]

I'm thinking your head might explode since I've posted 6 times today!

I figured u took a vacay or sick day off from work.

[Keybored]

To Luco,
When a new post comes up accusing someone of being a particular role, I do go back and look at it to see if the argument fits with my line of thinking. Despite that, I remain unconvinced even after Ong's newfound clarity after I rescinded penultimate lynch-vote to make sure he wasn't lynched without the opportunity to make more of a case). However, I think it is fair for villagers working on roles to be aware that Luco's assumptions on my participation (although a bit "harsh") are geniune, and also be aware of how I'm drawing my conclusions.

He just used the word 'penultimate' in WW?
C'mon, man!
I ain't got no dikshunary no mo.

[MadMojoMonkey]

I just did a read through from post 375 to current.

JKDS looks bad... real bad. His single-minded attack on ong is vast, while his attention to anyone else is subdued. Gabe perfectly illustrated a logical flaw in JKDS' "ignore Keith's argument, but STILL lynch ong" syllogism. JKDS arguments for 2nd wolf (as in ong and who?) just seem thin.

BID is quick to defend JKDS all too often.


Ong is looking pristine in retrospect. I don't see Ong as wolf.
(Either I owe him many bongs for my behavior, or I want him to teach me in the ways of the dark side.)

If JKDS/BID are the wolves, then day 2 wagon looks logical. JKDS was gaining speed, and BID is trying to start a wagon on keybored... then when the rilla wagon quickly moves from 1 to 3 votes, what's a poor BID to do? Is he going to get in on a wolf lynch, or is he going to sit on the sidelines? Wolves decides that between JKDS and rilla, JKDS has more fire for the win, and BID moves to rilla.

BID's apparent skill jump could well be influenced by the fact that he's a wolf, with the extra drive to win and the ability to have his level 0-ness toned down in wolf chat.

It's worth noting that in the beginning, being drunk was a reason not to post for BID. Then recently, being drunk was an excuse for a series of wolfy posts. Consistent? or easy cover?

New list:
MMM
Keybored
Luco
Hoopy
Ong

Dhuber
BID
JKDS

[MadMojoMonkey]

He just used the word 'penultimate' in WW?
C'mon, man!
I ain't got no dikshunary no mo.

penultimate - 2nd to last

[MadMojoMonkey]

dhubs could you restate your cases against ong, key and myself? i forgot what they were

this, please

[MadMojoMonkey]

I don't get what you're saying here, surely the wolves still have no incentive to allow blocks to happen?

Besides the village controls the angels tonight.

IF the wolves intention was to control the dead thread so that they could prevent the revive mechanic.

THEN they would need to prevent the activation gate.

On nights 1 and 2, the activation gate was that there must be at least 2 unused ghost angel saves on a certain night.
This implies 1 dead-wolf strategy, that of using the ghost angel saves aggressively.

However, now and ongoing, the activation gate is that IF the dead thread uses 2 angel saves, then on the next night there will be a revive.
This implies that the dead-wolf strategy to block the revive is to NOT use the ghost angel.

[MadMojoMonkey]

Besides the village controls the angels tonight.

Obv.

My point is to read into whether the wolves intended to kill off 2 wolves... whether the rilla lynch was a planned switch. If it was, then the voting reads very differently.

IF the wolves intended to kill off 2 wolves, then why?

Control of the dead thread in the early game? Not the best move, by any way I can see. Leaving the dead thread with maximum ghost angels per night in the late game seems super dangerous by itself. There is no way the wolves have control of the dead thread at that point, and the saves are more useful with a smaller player pool and more information.

It just doesn't make any sense for the wolves to have wanted 2 dead wolves on the first 2 days. What advantage could they have possibly gained by NOT using the ghost angel?

Picking off Keith and Daven? Surely the advantage of having living wolves outweighs that.

[MadMojoMonkey]

PLUS, there's the chance that the wolves get their nom, even with a villager in the dead thread on N1.

[wufwugy]

Just got home. Haven't read thread yet but got the tallies so we can start game again


Luco be all snarled up in his shit

The Living

MMM
JKDS
Dhuber
Ong
BID
Hoops
Keybored

The Dead

A crazy, themed game (or ur mam)
baudib
keith
rilla
daven
gabe
luco

The Village

5 villagers
2 wolves
4 ghost angels!


Day 4 now. Ends in 48ish hours. 4 to lunch!