FTR Werewolf: Gold Rush (Carbon Poker Freeroll)

[baudib]

I think you should give me a day per Gator.

[Keybored]

This is a lie. Of course you'd share your vig idea, because you committed to it in the signup thread. Not doing so is going to draw attention to you. And besides, you'd still share the idea because you'd know you're not going to be amongst the low hanging fruit.

I've seen enough. No way is baudib a villager.

lynch baudib

Be interesting to see if/how the other wolves come to his defense...

[baudib]

ok last post on this subject until new information appears. i'm not going to try to put up some vigorous defense.

ong seems to think i'm on some sick level as a wolf. i'm not. pretty sure i've played badly in a few ways, but consider how well hidden i was as a wolf last game. i think i would have been able to not draw attention this early as a wolf this game.

[OngBonga]

ong seems to think i'm on some sick level as a wolf

Actually this isn't the case. My argument is that you're dropping pov tell after pov tell, which would suggest you're on a very basic level of wolfing. Yes this gives me doubt, because you weren't sloppy last game. But, I'm really struggling to see how you can post what you've posted as a villager.

[baudib]

Lynch Bikes

[rong]

Idk ong, at lot of his behavior could be noob excitement and the inability to not react to every comment aimed at you that typically accompanies it. He's being a pretty awful wolf if he is one. In fact, so bad that leaving him alive would make him a liability for the wolves and I don't buy an experienced wolf buddy not telling him to slow down.

[baudib]

i might get busy at work for a while so let me say this.

if i die don't point finger at ong. pretty sure he's a villager

you can safely rule out wolf pairs of
baudib-ong
baudib-wufwugy
baudib-bikes

so look for other ones

[baudib]

well that is dumb cuz obviously i won't be a wolf with anyone. anyways...

[a500lbgorilla]

you can safely rule out wolf pairs of
baudib-ong
baudib-wufwugy
baudib-bikes

... because baudib isn't a wolf, right?

[a500lbgorilla]

well that is dumb cuz obviously i won't be a wolf with anyone. anyways...

so, what were you trying to say?

[a500lbgorilla]

"anyway, worst case scenario I'm a wolf and that's not really that bad, because I'll get lynched eventually and give you 2 confirmed villagers in Bikes and Wuf, both of whom will be better endgame players than me."

This doesn't sit right with me at all. You're not talking from a villager pov here. As a villager, you would realise that your mislynch does nothing to help us determine bikes' and wuf's roles. Why are you even thinking about how a baudib wolf flip clears those two? If you're a villager, it shouldn't even enter your mind, because it's irrelevant.

I'm not obsessing over you baudib, it's just everything you post seems to come from a wolf minset, not villager. I can't just ignore that.

Mmhmm...

[baudib]

i was trying to think of something useful for you after i die but had a brain fart. i'm a little busy at the moment.

[a500lbgorilla]

Idk ong, at lot of his behavior could be noob excitement and the inability to not react to every comment aimed at you that typically accompanies it. He's being a pretty awful wolf if he is one. In fact, so bad that leaving him alive would make him a liability for the wolves and I don't buy an experienced wolf buddy not telling him to slow down.

A lot of his posts hit high points of times when I was village lead, so I think he's playing a rather capable wolf if he is one. Wolves never try to do what he's doing because villagers that do it always have a target on their heads. So if not good, ballsy... and clever. Clever balls, if wolf.

[a500lbgorilla]

i was trying to think of something useful for you after i die but had a brain fart. i'm a little busy at the moment.

It has the inspiration of a thought like "in life, these guys showed they weren't on my team" but a villager's death doesn't give any info but "you guys got it wrong." And a villager usually focuses on the ones lining up to lynch him not on how people will digest the reveal. I'm sure numerous dead threads commiserated over how the thread completely ignored all the hard work they put in just before they died. No one cares what a dead villager thought. They knew as little or less than what everyone else knows.

[baudib]

yeah there's not even much voting record at this point so it's pointless.

there's no way i could really pay attention here after day 3-4 because of life matters so i figured i'd get myself killed off by then, but not this early. so i was trying to figure out a way to create some value in my short time. anyway sorry for spazzing out i probably hurt the village more than anything. give me some credit if/when wuf comes back a wolf though.

[Keybored]

A lot of his posts hit high points of times when I was village lead, so I think he's playing a rather capable wolf if he is one. Wolves never try to do what he's doing because villagers that do it always have a target on their heads. So if not good, ballsy... and clever. Clever balls, if wolf.

Rilla to the Baudib rescue....hadn't considered that.

[a500lbgorilla]

Maybe a really good poker player might think, "So how does my death help the village? Well, let me help them consider my range." But I'm reminded of a neat trick I learned recently when you're asked to lift up your dominant finger and draw a capital Q on your forehead. Honest folk will draw it with the little wink pointing to their right shoulder, as they see a Q. Dishonest folk draw the Q as it would be seen by others, with the tail pointing to their left shoulder.

[a500lbgorilla]

Rilla to the Baudib rescue....hadn't considered that.

Oh?

[baudib]

I'll explain in dead thread. Sorry again

[a500lbgorilla]

I think that wolf pair post is pretty damming. I'm mostly resistant to lynching buadib because this is a lesson I've learned personally, that when you put yourself out there, people will invent reasons to fuel their suspicion. I've learned to just quiet down that innate sense of suspicion and if anyone else posted that list I'd be all over them.

The honest man sees his Q. A villager knows he's a villager, that he'll flip villager, and that you're wrong to lynch him. A wolf has to worry about what his corpse will look like.

In addition to this, he's slipped up once before considering the times he happens to flip wolf which is very odd.

[a500lbgorilla]

I'll explain in dead thread. Sorry again

Just let me know what you were thinking when you made that post.

[wufwugy]

lynching baudib so hard

He says he has so many awesome reads on the wolves but then has virtually zero conviction on them, so much so that he said he would just go with whatever looks best between Gator's and Rilla's picks (but wtf gator's on his wolf list) then after Gator posts he says he doesn't like it and is just going to bold whoever Rilla picks

Dear Baudib, villagers cannot do this. It puts the rest of us in a position where we're confused by you and can't trust anything you say.

[wufwugy]

more important point ong ...lynching lolz as the deadline approaches is fine to stop a modkill but Gator actually doing it now is kinda sneaky in that a lollz wagon could get going and bring the day to a premature end and ensures that sweetclairerose gets modkilled. I think it was baudib who posted that she was away for the weekend or something like that and this Gator post seems to be an opportunistic post to ensure that she doesn't get to post before the day ends and then gets modkilled. it also means that neither of them can get replaced by any substitutes who volunteer

I don't think this is something Gator (or basically anybody) would do. It's really risky, low priority, tough to manage play

[OngBonga]

i might get busy at work for a while so let me say this.

if i die don't point finger at ong. pretty sure he's a villager

you can safely rule out wolf pairs of
baudib-ong
baudib-wufwugy
baudib-bikes

so look for other ones

My god after hammering you relentlessly for pov slips, you just keep giving me more. I really hope you're not a wolf baudib, I don't want you to be this bad after you were so good last game. But you could just be learning a harsh lesson here, and that is that snap posting has its flaws. Yes it looks villagery on the surface, but it's much easier to brain fart, which is what you're doing regardless of your role.

As crazy as this might sound, I can actually see you being a villager here, because despite me not being able to understand how you post what you do as a villager, I can't believe that as a wolf you would still not be previewing your posts to make sure you don't keep doing this shit.

I am utterly confused by you baudib.

[baudib]

I was trying to actually of the wolf-villager axis that people use i.e. If X is wolf/Y is villager. And if I get lynched you can figure out who's who from that. I was trying to figure out who id be associated with and just thought well people might blame ong and instead look at the people I've been accusing.

Cuz yeah I've obviously been trying to be a hero and figure everything on like on day 1 which is impossible but I thought if I hit close enough then surely the wolves would react in some way. I think that actually happened.

[wufwugy]

wuf, drew getting subbed in like that bears no relevance whatsoever to his alignment. doober said he'd do it in alphabetical order, that means it's random unless you're gonna try and outguess the mod's motives, which is obviously stupid.

If there's a wolf or special on that list, I would be very surprised if the first sub isn't of him, regardless of what the mod says about how it's done.

It's kind of lame, but it's also relevant. I think the probability makes BID a wolf more often than average

[OngBonga]

If there's a wolf or special on that list, I would be very surprised if the first sub isn't of him, regardless of what the mod says about how it's done.

It's kind of lame, but it's also relevant. I think the probability makes BID a wolf more often than average

We have to treat it as random, even if there's lingering doubt that it isn't. It's as simple as that.

[GrayFoxxxx]

Rescind Wuf

Vote Baudib

I'm still looking at wuf if Baud flips wolf. It will add even more evidence to my case.

[OngBonga]

rescind

Let me do a VC.

[Keith]

Did neither you nor Ong see Mex's comment about not having any volunteers to use?

hmmm lets see what i wrote ....

it also means that neither of them can get replaced by any substitutes who volunteer

yep future tense there so quite obviously i took note of what mex said. OR you could infer from the bleeding obvious.....if there had been a volunteer they would have been substituted in already.

If I really were doing this as a wolf you can bet it would have happened earlier and been much more subtle. Doesn't the day end in less than 24 hours? Does that really constitute an early bandwagon?

Your analysis is WAY off this game Keith so you are flying up my radar.

HOw can it have happened earlier, look at the thread #325 gabe says that he could lynch lollz, #327 bikes says he could lynch lollz, #330 gator say he could lynch inactive to stop them getting modkilled, five minutes later #332 gator lynches lolz because he's more of a mid/late game risk than bigred. He carefully avoids mentioning the other inactive in sweetclairreose and its opportunistic as gabe and bikes had just said that they could lynch lollz.

Yeah the day ends in less than 24hours, but bearing in mind baudibs post below and the fact this game is intended to encourage some new players into the fold, giving her time to start posting and avoid her being modkilled is good for the village.

SweetClaireRose is visiting family and should be back home tomorrow (Sunday).

Mex also stated that the players would be replaced in alphabetical order meaning that two volunteers would be required so its quite unlikely that she would be replaced by a substitute.If the village rush through a lynch on lollz at the stage that you voted for lollz , you make it likely that sweetclarerose didn't get to post before the lynch occurs and she'd also be modkilled. There were still 18 hours of USA posting available when you did your modkill avoiding vote on lollz . that is way too early to vote to avoid a modkill especially when it could result in another person ,who could turn up, getting modkilled.

My post pointed out the implications of getting sweetclairerose modkilled by a lollz wagon taking off to avoid him getting modkilled. You conveniently ignore this point in your rebuttal . Why don't you want sweetclairerose to turn up? If you're a wolf and know that she isn't a wolf, getting her modkilled is a freeroll at hitting a special.

[baudib]

lynching baudib so hard

He says he has so many awesome reads on the wolves but then has virtually zero conviction on them, so much so that he said he would just go with whatever looks best between Gator's and Rilla's picks (but wtf gator's on his wolf list) then after Gator posts he says he doesn't like it and is just going to bold whoever Rilla picks

Dear Baudib, villagers cannot do this. It puts the rest of us in a position where we're confused by you and can't trust anything you say.

you're not a villager but yes you're right. really today is just being at work and having 20 things on my mind.

[baudib]

chalk up the "i'll sheep gator or rilla" as villager FPS. i don't know what to think of gator and was trying to provoke him into saying something.

[baudib]

Keith not going to debate with you because i still think you're a villager. i wanted SCR to show up because she's my friend.

[baudib]

never mind sorry that Keith's post was directed at me. i should stop altogether until i can pay attention.

[OngBonga]

A quick scan suggests both bigred's on 3, baudib 2, not inclusing my vote.

lynch baudib

So 3-3, I believe. But I stress that I scanned the thread, so it could be wrong.

[GrayFoxxxx]

Gtg for few hours Ill be back before end of the day.

[OngBonga]

I just realised something.

My d1 soulread attempt is lacking in dan or wuf. That must be a first.

I think we're looking at baudib, gator and keybored.

[baudib]

Ong, you weren't suspicious of Wuf on D1? If so that blows my whole theory of everything anyway.

[OngBonga]

Ong, you weren't suspicious of Wuf on D1? If so that blows my whole theory of everything anyway.

I'm pretty much always suspicious of wuf. The difference here is I'm more suspicious of you, gator and keybored.

[gabe]

lynching someone like baudib, who is posting a TON, on day 1 is just plain stupid. If he really is a wolf his amount of posting should make it easier to tie back to him once we find one.

i would usually agree but baudib is posting so much we are on page 5 on day 1. we have plenty of info to run with

the baudib wolf pairing post seems like such a huuuuge mistake if he was a wolf that i almost dont believe it.

its still day 1 and thats all we've got. lynch baudib

[baudib]

ugh sorry guys gg. i hope i get wolf next time.

[gabe]

right now baudib has 120 posts out of the 415 total. thats absurd. ive noticed myself skimming the thread at times because of this. lets lynch him and we still have 120 posts to crosscheck without having 600 more to go through later

[baudib]

i know you guys will be confused after i die or you'll just think i'm an idiot so if you have any questions for me as a villager ask and i'll try to answer.

[baudib]

this post from wuf reads like he knows i'm a villager to me

lynching baudib so hard

He says he has so many awesome reads on the wolves but then has virtually zero conviction on them, so much so that he said he would just go with whatever looks best between Gator's and Rilla's picks (but wtf gator's on his wolf list) then after Gator posts he says he doesn't like it and is just going to bold whoever Rilla picks

Dear Baudib, villagers cannot do this. It puts the rest of us in a position where we're confused by you and can't trust anything you say.

[OngBonga]

If there's a wolf or special on that list, I would be very surprised if the first sub isn't of him, regardless of what the mod says about how it's done.

It's kind of lame, but it's also relevant. I think the probability makes BID a wolf more often than average

Actually this post stinks. There's 3 specials, and 3 wolves. If we're to assume that a wolf or special would be replaced first, well from a regular villager pov, that makes it 50-50 that drew is wolf or special. Furthermore, this post stinks of rolefishing, because anyone who points out that it's 50-50 could hint that they are not special.

At best, wuf is prepared to flip a coin between a wolf and special. I don't like it at all.

[OngBonga]

Wuf is freerolling at drew here.

lynch wuf

[baudib]

ong should i vote or will that make it look bad?

[OngBonga]

Why you asking me? If you're a villager, you vote wuf out of self preservation. If you're a wolf and wuf is villager, you vote him because you know that's what you'd do as villager. Only reason I can think for you stalling is if both of you are wolves.

Fuck me greyfox was right wasn't he? lol I'll laugh so hard if a noob soulread wuf and baudib on d1.

[baudib]

if i can get wuf killed it'll be worth it cuz i know he's a wolf

rescind bikes lynch wufwugy

[dhubermex]

Update

Most recent activity for lolzzz_321 is August 13
Most recent activity for SweetClaireRose is August 16

Neither have received my latest rounds of PMs so there's no need for me to keep sending. Substitutions are still the preferred route, but we're running out of time before modkill--which will take place at end of Night #1 Cycle at the very latest if the lack of activity and subs prevail.

lolzzz_321 and SweetClaireRose: you have until End of Night #1 (approximately 32 hours) before you are eliminated due to inactivity.

[wufwugy]

Actually this post stinks. There's 3 specials, and 3 wolves. If we're to assume that a wolf or special would be replaced first, well from a regular villager pov, that makes it 50-50 that drew is wolf or special. Furthermore, this post stinks of rolefishing, because anyone who points out that it's 50-50 could hint that they are not special.

At best, wuf is prepared to flip a coin between a wolf and special. I don't like it at all.

I already explained why it's okay.

1. It doesn't matter if he's a special because he has fully demonstrated that he will not use his role well. If anybody is to be given credit for thinking that BID is bad for the village even when he's a special, it's me. Reference how I berated him for precisely this in the last game he played and even though I tried really hard (as the mod) to get him to use his role, he didn't. Recall that he was the angel and the entire village expected him to protect a different special, yet he DIDN'T. He opted to do nothing. The only person he protected the entire game was himself, even though he is the last person who would ever be nom'd. He's not on the same planet as us. There are dozens of iterations by which it may actually be worse for the village for BID to have a special role than to just be a reg villager. The root for why you disagree with me probably has to do with that you don't think BID is terrible. Well, I do. It's no secret. At this point I don't think it's worth explaining the many ways that BID could misuse a special role so egregiously that it determines the doom of the village, but I believe it is a concern.

2. If it is true that BID is more likely special or a wolf than a villager, it is still correct to lynch him, because it is much bigger mistake to not lynch a potential wolf than to accidentally lynch a potential special


The former is more of a point of me finding pleasure in ripping on BID. The latter is the main point. It is absolutely true that it doesn't matter if the probability of him getting special is upped since it's not that big of a mistake to lynch him as a special but a huge mistake to not lynch him as a wolf. If BID is 50-50 wolf/special it is always correct to lynch him. Even if he's 20-80 wolf/special it is correct to lynch him

[wufwugy]

Let's do wuf vs baudib. seer looks up the one who doesn't die

Yesterday I wasn't that hot to trot with wuf vs baudib because I wasn't convinced he is a wolf, but the new information (combined with the old) shows me that there is enough reason to think he's a wolf a good percentage of the time

If I'm the lynch, no skin off my back. I've already had my fill of epic endgames, so I'm not as obsessed as I used to be. Baud won't survive the whole game

[baudib]

i'll self-lynch if you guys kill wuf

[OngBonga]

I don't agree with you wuf but I can see you taking this line as a villager.

Even if drew played the angel badly, he was still a confirmed villager. The specials are often most powerful simply when they can prove they are not a wolf. It doesn't matter how badly he plays the angel, the fact that drew is not high nom priority means that he's still a great person to be special. SDM last game is a classic example of that.

Alright I'm much happier with baudib being a wolf. The dithering after I voted you is strange, especially since he's said several times that he's sure you're a wolf. He's a lot more concerned about how he looks than a villager should be.

lynch baudib

[wufwugy]

this post from wuf reads like he knows i'm a villager to me

I speak theoretically all the time. Also, I originally said "if you're a villager, you can't do this", but I'm cognizant of how I often come off as an asshole, so I minimized the amount of finger-pointing "you" type rhetoric I used

[baudib]

I speak theoretically all the time. Also, I originally said "if you're a villager, you can't do this", but I'm cognizant of how I often come off as an asshole, so I minimized the amount of finger-pointing "you" type rhetoric I used

it's not what you're doing. you're admonishing me for bad villager play, which is well deserved.

[wufwugy]

it's not what you're doing. you're admonishing me for bad villager play, which is well deserved.

Because sometimes you are just a villager

[baudib]

post 50 Wuf. i got myself lynched but so be it

Be careful, it'll look pretty bad for you if you get me lynched.

[baudib]

Let's do wuf vs baudib. seer looks up the one who doesn't die

Yesterday I wasn't that hot to trot with wuf vs baudib because I wasn't convinced he is a wolf, but the new information (combined with the old) shows me that there is enough reason to think he's a wolf a good percentage of the time

If I'm the lynch, no skin off my back. I've already had my fill of epic endgames, so I'm not as obsessed as I used to be. Baud won't survive the whole game

wuf trading his life for seer. don't do it.

[OngBonga]

post 50 Wuf. i got myself lynched but so be it

But it won't look bad for me?

[OngBonga]

rescind

[wufwugy]

i'll self-lynch if you guys kill wuf

You haven't yet made a case for me being a wolf. You've said it a million times, but never got around to explaining. Dat's wolfing 101

[OngBonga]

Did he just claim seer?

[baudib]

wuf has done zero wolf hunting all game. are you telling me we would get to 3 days into the game without Wuf trying to give epic reads on everyone? come on. Please go back and read an old game and tell me that this is Wuf's villager game.

every wuf post is either about me or about the virtues of killing inactives, even if they might be special. jesus it's ridiculous.

fwiw i still think Wuf and GrayFoxxxx can be wolves together quite often.

[wufwugy]

Did he just claim seer?

maybe. i read it as him saying im trading my life in by asking to get seer'd (since im obv such a wolf)

[baudib]

Did he just claim seer?

no, i'm not the seer. Wuf is trying to trade his life to get the identity of the seer. don't look him up, just lynch him anyway.

[baudib]

But it won't look bad for me?

explain?

[OngBonga]

baudib isn't a wolf.

[OngBonga]

explain?

You're saying that wuf getting you lynched would look bad for him. But why won't me getting you lynched look bad for me?

Anyway I need to take this in. It's one thing for you to not claim there, but you've slammed the door on a future seer fakeclaim by saying you're not the seer. If you're a wolf in trouble, you'll want that potential claim left there. I think you just showed yourself very likely to be a villager.

[baudib]

You're saying that wuf getting you lynched would look bad for him. But why won't me getting you lynched look bad for me?

Anyway I need to take this in. It's one thing for you to not claim there, but you've slammed the door on a future seer fakeclaim by saying you're not the seer. If you're a wolf in trouble, you'll want that potential claim left there. I think you just showed yourself very likely to be a villager.

you were my first read as lock villager. i thought we had both nailed Wuf right away on Night 0. part of it was i trusted your "wolf tells" post. i've found your legit reads as villager to be pretty solid. when i thought i could get lynched before immolating, i posted "please don't blame this on Ong."

[baudib]

Night 0 Wuf clearly threatens to get me railroaded if i kept hounding him.

be careful, i have a history of balls-to-the-wall attacking people who think im a wolf

that's why i said to be careful, because i'll flip village and he'll look bad. but i guess he has a history of getting villagers killed. more than "honorary wolf" this time though.

[OngBonga]

Let's do wuf vs baudib. seer looks up the one who doesn't die

This implies that you expect a villager flip from baudib.

[OngBonga]

yup wuf's the wolf here.

lynch wuf

[wufwugy]

This implies that you expect a villager flip from baudib.

no it doesn't. it implies that i think he's a wolf and i don't much care for self-preservation

[baudib]

ong you're brilliant.