Quote Originally Posted by Mike1013 View Post
Yeah, PokerKing, sometimes we'll want to think about what the other player thinks about us. But in order for that to really matter, the following needs to be true:

  1. Our opponent is aware enough to think about what we're doing
  2. Our opponent has a good enough sample size on our play to accurately gauge what we are doing
  3. Our opponent is sophisticated enough to correctly take advantage of his knowledge about what we are doing to adjust his play
  4. The play we are going to make will actually change, depending on the adjustments the other player is making


I think the first thing is true maybe 50% of the time, the second perhaps 30% of the time, the third maybe 30% of the time, and the last one, perhaps, 30% of the time. If you multiply those percents together, you get about 1.4% of the time that you will need to consider what stats and reads the opponent has on us. Of course, I just made those numbers up out of thin air, but I think the general principle applies that you should generally play your own game, considering your ranges and opponent's ranges and tendencies, and not worry too much about how your opponent's reads on you are going to affect his play.

This changes a lot as you move up in stakes, but I think that at the micros, the most likely person to cause you to make exploitable mistakes is yourself. So, I would only consider opponents' reads on you as a significant factor in your decision-making process when you're playing against somebody whom you know is a tough reg, or somebody against whom you have tons of hands and who has shown the ability to adjust to your play. And actually, those situations will be further limited if you are using good table-selection skills.
Interesting read Mike. The way you put it, it does indeed look like as if you only have to worry about this on higher stakes, or against players that you have played a lot with, and of who you think they are good enough players to use the stats they have on you. Thank you Mike