We only need to be good here 33ish% of the time to call.
In order of how likely I think he is to actually play like this:
1) AJ/A5/A3/QT (QT probably raises turn some % of the time) - 43% equity
2) +KK/JJ/33/KJ - 44% equity
3) +AA/AK/55 (very unlikely imo) - 36% equity
4) + random spew/bluffs/2NL weirdness (40+% equity?)
I can't find a range that we would want to fold against.
I think river sizing is ok given that there are no more betting rounds, so he is fairly likely to call a PSB with TPWK.



Reply With Quote