[5NL] Flop a set...facing river shove

[Cobra_1878]

Villain is 21/16 through 282 hands. $0.17 was standard raise for villain. Cbet was 72% on flop. He had only followed this up once on the turn, 17%, 1/6.

Some notes on villain. I had seen him stack off pre with 99, this was blind vs blind though. He wasn't afraid to c/r flops or turns. He massively overplayed draws, called a 3bet OOP with ATs. C/c 75% of pot bet on flop with NFD. Calls a pot sized shove on turn, ~$3.50 still only with NFD. It is prob also worth noting this hand was against me so we have a little history.

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: $3.92
Hero (MP): $10.15
CO: $5.07
BTN: $5.50
SB: $2.98
BB: $4.86

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has 4 4

UTG raises to $0.17, Hero calls $0.17, fold, fold, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.41, 2 players) J 4 6
UTG bets $0.25, Hero calls $0.25

Turn: ($0.91, 2 players) 9
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.65, UTG calls $0.65

River: ($2.21, 2 players) T
UTG bets $2.85 and is all-in, Hero ???

He was 15/15 UTG pre-flop. This is what Pokerstove gives us for 15% - 77+, A7s+, K9s+, QTs+, JTs, ATo+,KTo+,QJo. I think this fits in well with this villain although he prob raises with any PP pre and also any suited A.

Flop - He cbets the flop, could quite easily be doing this with air. Can we narrow his range here at all? I thought about raising but I think I would do that as a bluff as I think he cbets more with air than when he actually has it.

Turn - He doesn't usually bet the turn, after he check/calls I think we can narrow his range to 77-88, TT, ( I don't think he checks 66 or 99 here ) JTs, KJo, A2s+, AJo,

River - He shoves?!?! What draws come in? Did he miss his FD and this is a bluff shove? Here he could have 87s ( would he raise with this pre?, KQs/KQo ( doesn't make sense ), TT, possibly 99, A2s+ ( as a bluff, although I keep getting told villains don't shove bluff the river )

Thoughts?

[daven]

raise flop, go a bit bigger on turn to leave villain just under pot behind on the river
as played snap call river cos meh you beat TJ/QQ+/AJ and there are not so many oversets or straights he can have.

[MadMojoMonkey]

I don't mind the line OTF or OTT. I'd probably use similar sizing. Snap call OTR.

Even bottom set is usually good on this board.

If you lost this one, oh well. That's just the poker gods sense of humor.

[spoonitnow]

I'm sorry if I keep asking this since it's out of curiosity, but what's your range pre-flop?

[Cobra_1878]

My calling range pre-flop in this situation is pretty tight I think. 44-99, ATo-AQo, A2s-AJs, KQs and I think that's probably about it. TT+, AQs+, AKo I am 3betting with.

[The Bean Counter]

Raise flop.
As played, I don't think river is a snap call, but a call all the same and I'd expect to be behind here fairly often (but not often enough to fold). KQ and TT are definitely there, but so is some other random spazzliture.

[spoonitnow]

With OP's range, I like raising most sets and AJ with a lot of bluffs including hands like KsQs that we can barrel with on a lot of turns. He's not going to be barreling enough for us to worry about our calling range being too weak, but we should probably call with a set or AJ sometimes for balance and to make our flop raising range a bit weaker imo.