*** Super Meta Werewolf Gameplay Thread ***

[a500lbgorilla]

I dunno. When I get a sense of the wolf team, I'll try to figure out what they're thinking, but to try to figure out what they're thinking based on the signals they're choosing to send seems a might foolish.

Remember, they're not special hunting. They're just working through the village. They have quite a bit of leisure since every villager amounts to the same threat - 1 vote. Maybe +/- their influence, but we're all pretty close to the mean. Keep around as much minus as you can, while holding on to the plus.

This also implies that they want to avoid being in the minus category, and that each of their targets was considered a plus, but anything on top of this is building on a lot of possible systemic assumption-error.

[a500lbgorilla]

Remember, they're not special hunting. They're just working through the village. They have quite a bit of leisure since every villager amounts to the same threat - 1 vote. Maybe +/- their influence, but we're all pretty close to the mean. Keep around as much minus as you can, while holding on to the plus.

This also implies that they want to avoid being in the minus category, and that each of their targets was considered a plus, but anything on top of this is building on a lot of possible systemic assumption-error.

"holding on to the plus" should read "aim down the plus" or some such. I have been drinking in celebration of AMERICA

[jyms]

If anyone can give me a valid reason why gabe is still alive I'm listening

[a500lbgorilla]

If you're the wolf team, how could you make a mistake lynching?

Lynching inactives and lynching likely targets. Certainly these are distinctly worse choices than lynching strong players. And worse still lynching weak players.

So their kills fall into first - active, second - nontargets for lynch, third - strong players.

Gator round 1, TLR round 2, NightGizmos round 3. Do they fit the profile?

[a500lbgorilla]

Lynching inactives and lynching likely targets. Certainly these are distinctly worse choices than lynching strong players. And worse still lynching weak players.

Again, garbled thoughts. I do love my edit button. Weak and strong should be flip-flopped.

[jyms]

So their kills fall into first - active, second - nontargets for lynch, third - strong players.

I think this is wrong, I think you would normally lynch obvious villagers, good players, and leave the village of non targeted bad players guessing.

[a500lbgorilla]

I think this is wrong, I think you would normally lynch obvious villagers, good players, and leave the village of non targeted bad players guessing.

So how do you measure obvious villagers? Everyone judges everyone else differently at different points and there's no seer to sort us straight.

[a500lbgorilla]

So how do you measure obvious villagers? Everyone judges everyone else differently at different points and there's no seer to sort us straight.

I suppose by consensus, but consensus breaks. Who here has been a consensus villager for more than one day?

[jyms]

yes we do, but as a group the wolves get to work together with complete information. Unlike us, who have no obvious villagers but plenty of inactives. All the wolves need to do is take out the people that aren't inactive, in the mix and not likely to be lynched soon. We talked about taking out the inactives so why would the wolves take them out? Gizmo has had some heat, but not like some of us. Who did the wolves think we were taking out next? Or after that?

[a500lbgorilla]

Even after telegraphing my punch, it's not a threat, since I'm just 1/8th the village. Even if everyone telegraphed their punches, they still wouldn't know what we're going to do since our process to settling on a vote is buffeted by all the madness that comes with a wolf hunt.

So the wolves basically free-roll after hurtling two requirements: active poster and unlikely target for a lynch.

We need to see one of them dead so we can get a sense of who they are.

Otherwise, our best bit of info was spidey getting licked before he could post. Or spidey-senses for who's hiding cards up their sleeves.

I derno.

[a500lbgorilla]

So, like I think I said initially, even after giving it some good thought, worry about what the wolf kills mean isn't our focus; our best path is to look for the mistakes wolves make during the day. Back to the warpath.

[jyms]

Your right, but when I think about 4 people talking I have to assume that at least one of them has some decent wolf skills from playing this game. I think they are working well as a group and not doing too much thinking on their feet.

Unlike the village, we are all 1 on 1, so to turn up their heat we need to think about how we win this game. Not getting a wolf yet is not as big a deal as getting the wolves to give information for the end game so we need them to start posting. If we don't spend any considerable time with a wolf under the pressure of a lynch then they won't post anything that is going to connect them to other wolves. Just outright lynching someone with 7-8 straight votes does nothing. People need to start taking sides.

[a500lbgorilla]

A few things in retrospect:

1 - nnnyah Boog!
2 - JKDS, how come you couldn't think through your position like I thought through mine? Oh right, lynch JKDS
3 - I suppose the most interesting group highlighted by the wolves actions are active, nontargets still alive.

[JKDS]

Ong is a wolf because his role pm says so. Are you guys now aware of how he plays as town?

Where is the constant paranoia? The massive flipflopping? The "shit lets not rush becasue its 8:4"? This is not Ong town style, QED he is a wolf.

I dont have time to actually quote him, just read the thread and look. He is a wolf.

Gabe im unsure about, but he probably is a wolf. Im basing this on him being epic normally and him now being not epic. I can see rilla wolf as well for the same reasons.

Neither is a better lynch than ong though.

Jyms is likely more mislynch bait.

I dont get the discussion over night kills either. There is nothing suspicious about it. Its obvious even. Gizmo, tlr, and gator, 3 people who work hard as villagers and are generally fairly good. 3 people that play often enough that the qq over killing off the same person first every game doesnt happen either. (a reason why im reluctant to lynch gabe/rilla over ong).

[jyms]

Too many ppl ready to string up gabe too fast. Im sticking with my early game read.

Lynch jyms

You're one of the reasons this village is failing hard. You have a simple idea based off of some day 2 guess and haven't let go or looked for anything to help. If the wolves have asked you to engage me and piss me off, won't happen in WW, I just don't care that much. Maybe if I had buyins invested.

[bigred]

I can lynch Gabe or Jymz today. Both seem pretty ldo

[jyms]

Who's the new guy

[a500lbgorilla]

Both seem pretty ldo

Why?

[a500lbgorilla]

In a game of imperfect information, JKDS seems to be seeing clearly. QEDing wolves, laying down other 50/50s based on lack of epic-ness, labeling mislynch bait, and judging the night actions obvious.

[jyms]

Ya, prove you read the thread, right now Bigred, not just floating and doing what you're told

[a500lbgorilla]

In a game of imperfect information, JKDS seems to be seeing clearly. QEDing wolves, laying down other 50/50s based on lack of epic-ness, labeling mislynch bait, and judging the night actions obvious.

A bit of the lawyer slipping through, methinks.

[JKDS]

The fact that you'd rather attack me, than consider my points is proof you are a wolf. Nothing I said is particularly earth shattering, and anyone even somewhat aware of the meta of these games should be able to figure this out at a cursory glance. Res Judicata!

Ong+Rilla team. I stand by this and am pretty happy with it. Their interaction are pretty lame too. Ong typically attacks/gets paranoid over rilla very early. There is none of that here.

lynch ong

lynch rilla next. Ill prob die today, but listen to me village. Neither is playing like they typically do. They are obvious wolves at this point in the game. If you want to lynch me first, go ahead. But i beseech thee to lynch them next. Go through the thread, and see if their play makes any sense.

[a500lbgorilla]

Jkids, I've addressed all of your points in some way or another before you've made them.

Lawyer as hard as you can, I'm well versed in debate and rhetortic. I know your tricks. I'm the spawn of a lawyer.

[JKDS]

Im gonna add hoopy to the end of that list.

Lynch Ong, then if wolf, lynch rilla. Then if wolf, lynch hoopy.

[OngBonga]

jkds, what are you talking about? You're telling me I'm not flip-flopping, but I am. You say I'm not active, but I am. You're telling me I'm not paranoid about rilla, but I am. All this and you're as quiet as you were last game. This is just noise. Last game I got two strong villagers lynched. If me taking a step back and playing with slightly less aggression is a problem for you, well sorry about that. I'm not a wolf. Rilla might well be.

[JKDS]

Show me where you have purposefully attacked rilla that is prior to discussions about why he and gabe are still alive.

If you can, and it feels like villager ong, ill reconsider.

[OngBonga]

Ok JK...

What are you guys babbling about? Who cares if the wolves get an extra 24 hours of chit chat to assess before they nom? I don't.

Ok so let's look at the lynch... gabe jyms rilla dan... all piled onto banana in the closing stages of the day... I'm willing to bet there's a wolf or two here.

Let's start with a lynch dan

Here's the point where I first consider rilla as potential wolf. Admittedly I went for dan first, but I was prodding him to see what response I got. I felt his response was villager. By the time I reached this conclusion, I was already focussing on jyms. With gizmo's attack on gabe and rilla yesterday, I started to consider rilla more strongly. And with the gizmo nom, I'm ready to claim outright that I think he's a strong wolf candidate. I think it's rilla, jyms and gabe. I think the clues are there, dranger and gizmo have already given strong attacks on them, and rilla is starting to look like a good shot for the third. Throw boog in for fourth and that's where I'm at right now.

Purposefully attacked? Ok I haven't directly attacked him. I was leaning wolf with him, I asked him a question, didn't like his response and he's in my wolf list. But I haven't defended him either, at no point have a got a villager vibe off him and stated so. I think there's a good chance he's a wolf, I feel there's a better chance between gabe and jyms.

gizmo died practically saying "lynch gabe next", and banana "lynch jyms next". The cases vs them are solid, and you're focussing on me for not being myself or whatever?

You're not clear. You could be trying to divert attention away from the two wolves in trouble. You're attack on me hasn't got me moving you into villager camp. I much prefer other options though.

[JKDS]

Mentioning rilla in some offhand manner is not attacking him. You are not disproving my case. Never would villager ong EVER let rilla slide so damn much. You are distancing and avoiding him and that is incredibly uncharacteristic of you. Your votes, postings, and arguments lack the fervor of villager ong as well. Have you even called someone a cunt this game? There are so many differences here, and all of them point to wolf ong.

[JKDS]

Ill restate.

Villager ong, while wrong early, is mindbogglingly annoying. The strat you generally use provides a ton of pressure, and is generally effective in forcing mistakes from wolves. There is no post i find itt that gives me that same impression. There is no one in this thread that can, at any point, say "my god, ong leave me alone". This is what i mean when I attacked your activity, and also your tenacity. You are generally more civil than normal, generally less willing to pick fights, and have been qualifying a lot of your posts with wishywashyness instead of the cocky arrogance i expect from you.

Im like 80% sure that this all means you're a wolf. The other 20% can be attributed to me somehow missing contradicting evidence.

[OngBonga]

lolwat? Show me a quote from every game I played where I call someone a cunt. I'm not disproving your case? No, I can't. It's based on assumptions. Of course I can't disprove it. You're saying I'm different to other games. Of couse I am, it's a different game. I can't help it if I'm not playing to your expectations of villager ong, I dunno what you want from me. I've said who I think the wolves are. I've voted for people, been active, pointed fingers. So I'm not top of the post count this time around. Show me every game I've played where I am top of the post count.

I'm a wolf because I'm letting rilla slide? Cmon man.

[dranger7070]

JKDS is actually providing a very sound argument for you ong. Every game I've ever played with you, you act like I did on Day 2/3 THE ENTIRE THREAD.

This game its almost possible to forget you aren't playing. You've made some posts pointing fingers, etc, but man, its much much different than any other time I've ever played with you.

You deserve looking at for sure. I'm not saying you're a wolf 80% or w/e the time JKDS is implying, but the sudden change up in game play certainly warrants suspicion.

JKDS you fall under that group also though. As others have stated you're playing differently this game than you have in the past. Your attacking of Ong shows some promise though.

[dranger7070]

JKDS is actually providing a very sound argument for you ong. Every game I've ever played with you, you act like I did on Day 2/3 THE ENTIRE THREAD.

This game its almost possible to forget you aren't playing. You've made some posts pointing fingers, etc, but man, its much much different than any other time I've ever played with you.

You deserve looking at for sure. I'm not saying you're a wolf 80% or w/e the time JKDS is implying, but the sudden change up in game play certainly warrants suspicion.

JKDS you fall under that group also though. As others have stated you're playing differently this game than you have in the past. Your attacking of Ong shows some promise though.

It's almost possible to forget your playing**** is how that should read lol.

[dranger7070]

You're***

-____-

[rong]

JKDS just summed up my case against Ong.

Ong and Jyms are my favoured lynches.

Rilla is also playing differently, not sure if that's just to avoid an early death and whether that makes him more likely villager or not I'm not sure.

I've been thinking about Gizmo laying into Gabe prior to being killed and what to take from this.

The way I see it, if Gabe is a wolf, the wolves only kill Gizmo if they don't believe his theories will be acted upon. This could be down to just ignoring them and no villagers focusing on them enough, or down to the wolves believing they can argue it down.

If Gabe is a villager, the wolves only kill Gizmo if they believe his actions will be acted upon by the village, or at least that the village can be persuaded to focus on Gizmo's theories.

As it stands, the village is not spending much time focusing on Gizmo and Gabe.

So either the wolves were wrong and also haven't attempted to try and push the Gizmo/Gabe connection, or Gabe is a wolf.

You see?

[rong]

So.... Jyms, Ong, Gabe? Seems feasible.

[a500lbgorilla]

You see?

Do you see what I was saying earlier? Trying to read into the wolves by way of the lynches they choose is very difficult because you don't know anything about the wolf team.

[a500lbgorilla]

Everyone should probably focus on naming 1 wolf instead of 3 or 4, at this point. We need to nab one to get things moving.

[jyms]

I'll hang either one of those two. There is nobody at this point I won't bold as far as I am concerned. With so little evidence (other wolves lynched) I think there ae some good arguments for almost anyone. Right now I have gabe Bolded because it seems everyone wants to hang me for the defenses gabe gave vs dranger and they are too afraid to hang gabe if he is a villager. So they think it's better to lose me, but this is dangerous because even if I turn up wolf, that doesn't help your case against gabe, and if I turn up villager, gabe could still be a wolf playing a sound game.

The way I see it, if we are going after game players and not inactives, rilla seems less wolfy to me than gabe. JKDS has a great point on Ong, and Rong and dranger and pascal seem wolfy to me, but that may be because they keep bolding me so I am trying not to put them in the wolf camp without some solid reasoning.

[rong]

Do you see what I was saying earlier? Trying to read into the wolves by way of the lynches they choose is very difficult because you don't know anything about the wolf team.

I would have thought my previous post made it pretty clear I don't agree with this.

[rong]

. Right now I have gabe Bolded because it seems everyone wants to hang me for the defenses gabe gave vs dranger and they are too afraid to hang gabe if he is a villager. So they think it's better to lose me, but this is dangerous because even if I turn up wolf, that doesn't help your case against gabe, and if I turn up villager, gabe could still be a wolf playing a sound game.

What are you talking about?

[Pascal]

Rilla looking more and more like a villager to me today, not 100% sure I can articulate why though.

[a500lbgorilla]

I would have thought my previous post made it pretty clear I don't agree with this.

Your post shbows that the ng kill could mean that gabe is a wolf OR that gabe isn't a wolf... which seems like you agree with me

[jyms]

I've been thinking about Gizmo laying into Gabe prior to being killed and what to take from this.

The way I see it, if Gabe is a wolf, the wolves only kill Gizmo if they don't believe his theories will be acted upon. This could be down to just ignoring them and no villagers focusing on them enough, or down to the wolves believing they can argue it down.

If Gabe is a villager, the wolves only kill Gizmo if they believe his actions will be acted upon by the village, or at least that the village can be persuaded to focus on Gizmo's theories.

As it stands, the village is not spending much time focusing on Gizmo and Gabe.

So either the wolves were wrong and also haven't attempted to try and push the Gizmo/Gabe connection, or Gabe is a wolf.

You see?

See I think this is the exact opposite of what would happen. If Gabe is a villager there is no reason to kill someone on a gabe BW. The wolves should never be killing someone that wants to lynch a villager and is that verbal about it.

Or this goes back to me saying the wolves are doing exactly that, the Castanza gammit. The exact opposite of everything they believe is right. .

[Pascal]

If you keep saying it then the wolves are just going to jump up a level which doesn't help us at all?

[jyms]

Ya cause as poker players they would never think of doing that themselves.

What would you suggest then?

[Pascal]

I'd suggest that the village is made up of so many people who are never going to agree on any complex theory that the village is always going to be working at level 0, and that the wolves will always therefore work at level 1. So we just interpret all posts along those lines.

[Hoopy]

Pascal looking more like a villager with that last post.

Everyone should probably focus on naming 1 wolf instead of 3 or 4, at this point. We need to nab one to get things moving.

Alright how about this, everyone names their top two wolf picks with reasons, it might help clarify things.

I'll go first.

1. JKDS

JKDS is probably my favorite lynch today, he gave a reason for posting less but it's not the decrease in activity that particularly worries me. Look at his posts, there's almost no actual wolf hunting in them. This is the guy who normally (whenever I've played with him anyway) attacks people for being wolfy, dissects posts + logic and can definitely soulread wolves.

2. Gabe
- Based on Gizmo's analysis posts.

[jyms]

Gabe, and I posted why several times if you have been taking notes

Bigred, because he hasn't been post whoring and being the center of attention like he likes, and he loves gabe and Rilla, so even if they are villagers he would do what he can to keep them in the game.

[Hoopy]

The people I'd really like to hear from are bigred and gala.

[Galapogos]

Won't be able to review and post thoughts until my lunch time today. That will be until about 3.5 from now. I've just been keeping up by briefly reading the thread on my phone from time to time.

I agree right now with the thought that to be this lost, the leadership of our village has to be tainted somehow. I want to go back over the rilla/jyms/gabe posts and see if that thought is actually justified though.

[Galapogos]

3.5 hours from now I meant.

[dranger7070]

Jyms.

Gabe.

[OngBonga]

@JKDS / dranger / dan... I've explained myself to JKDS I'm not going to keep repreating myself. I don't see a case. I don't feel as though I'm playing all that differently except I'm not as aggressive. That's deliberate after I failed last game so hard. That's it.

I feel like jkds has identified a weakness of mine and is exploiting it. Last game, I got lynched as the seer because I didn't defend very well vs stacks (a wolf). Stacks had no case last game, jkds has none this game. They need two more mislynches to win and jkds is making a move for me, someone who was surprisingly easy to wagon last game. He's indentified a weakness and is exploiting it. That idicates wolf.

<jkds rilla gabe jyms> is a pretty sick wolf team.

[a500lbgorilla]

lynch jkds

My best shot at this point.

I dunno who id put as number 2

[JKDS]

The team is ong, rilla, hoopy, pascal.

Village, I am using my 1 time. Lynch ong, I am now 100% sure on him.

[OngBonga]

I still prefer to lynch gabe or jyms. I feel these guys are where our most likely wolves are. jkds appears to me to be making solid wolf moves, he knows he's gonna get dan's support for an ong wagon, which might be why dan is still alive. But then again jkds has given me no other reason to think he's a wolf, and with rilla pushing it, I'm really cautious about lynching jkds.

lynch gabe, I think the gizmo nom is as simple as it looks... one less vote for gabe.

[OngBonga]

jkds, if I were a wolf, I'd have wanted to kill dan or you. Not even close. I'm not gonna argue with your "100% sure" nonsense. You're just wrong.

[rong]

Can we get a count.

[jyms]

Looking over the whole thread right now, I am getting the sense it's

gabe
rong
boog
bigred.

I still think gabe and rong are my 2

[gabe]

i have no idea of anything except im a villager. i feel like there is a case to be made for everyone. i think jkds makes the best case out of everyone and thats for ongabonga.

lynch ongabonga

also if you try to lynch me, it will look just like the lolz lynch. there will be no resistance from anyone. hopefully now that i say this, a wolf will try to fake defend me and you can lynch that person once you see that im a villager.

[gabe]

and i should add that all the gizmo accusations are pretty empty. its all 'if he was a wolf, he mightve done this!' type stuff. the little microslips i had are more indicative of a villager than of a 10th level wolf like you guys are scared of.

if i had to pick 3 other names itd be bigred jyms hoopy in that order

[Galapogos]

Won't be able to review and post thoughts until my lunch time today. That will be until about 3.5 from now. I've just been keeping up by briefly reading the thread on my phone from time to time.

I agree right now with the thought that to be this lost, the leadership of our village has to be tainted somehow. I want to go back over the rilla/jyms/gabe posts and see if that thought is actually justified though.

Working lunch, won't be able to look through the posts until another 4 hours when I'm off for the day.

[gabe]

hoopy is just suspicious because i always agree with him and our village hasnt gone anywhere. i dont see much concrete wolfy evidence for him though.

onga pascal rong bigred is my up-to-the-minute wolf suspicious list. onga and pascal are top 2. my sense tell me rilla, dranger, gala, and boog are villagers but that hasnt been worth much!

[Hoopy]

Vote count as of now.

gabe - 3
jyms, pascal, ong

jyms - 2
dranger, rong

JKDS - 2
hoopy, rilla

Ongbonga - 2
JKDS, gabe

[gabe]

i know im a villager. the wolves mustve thought gizmo dying would be an easy path to lynching me.

jyms / pascal /ong are the only 3 voting for me. there is a 0% chance that these are all villagers. i like the argument for ongbonga so im sticking with him.

[gabe]

at least one of them has to be a wolf because theres no chance none of the 4 wolves try to get me lynched. that wouldnt make any sense after nomming gizmo. our lynch has to come out of that batch

[gabe]

the circumstantial evidence on me is just the same as that on the next guy. this is actual real direct evidence of who is a wolf. getting me lynched had to be the priority after gizmo was shown to be a villager but the only resistance comes from me, because im a villager! if one of those isnt a wolf ill seriously eat my hat and post a video of it in the next game i play

[jyms]

I think there is possibly nobody with 2 wolf votes

[gabe]

bigred
boog
dranger
galapogos

these are the 4 without votes. i would guess one of them is probably a wolf. imo boog and dranger dont seem wolfy but could be. gala says he'll be reviewing shortly so withholding judgement.

[pascal jyms ong bigred ] we're getting closer

[gabe]

I think there is possibly nobody with 2 wolf votes

ok

[rong]

This is an interesting game. I don't remember having such a split village like this before.

How are we for time? We have another day yet right?

[jyms]

Ya we have till thursday pm.

[Pascal]

[gabe jyms ong bigred ] we're getting closer

fyp

[Pascal]

oops should be JKDS not bigred

[gabe]

that wouldnt make any sense given what i know (and if youre a villager you couldnt be sure of this fact--im a villager)

i know if i get lynched, i will turn out to be a villager, and then people will look at that post and it will make sense to them.