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Bottom Set on ver' ver' Wet board versus World and his Wife

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  1. #1
    DoubleJ's Avatar
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    Question Bottom Set on ver' ver' Wet board versus World and his Wife

    Villain is VP 24, PF 15, 3Bet 0, Agg 1.2 over 70 hands W$SD 75

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    CO ($11.86)
    Button ($5)
    SB ($8.44)
    Hero (BB) ($5.81)
    UTG ($3.49)
    MP ($3.04)

    Preflop: Hero is BB with 5, 5
    UTG bets $0.15, MP calls $0.15, CO calls $0.15, Button calls $0.15, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.10

    First off, i'm assuming i'm good to call here w/ 6.7:1 pot odds and a speculative hand?

    Flop: ($0.77) 5, 9, J (5 players)
    Hero checks,

    Was uncertain here whether to lead out or check/raise

    UTG checks, MP checks, CO checks, Button bets $0.44, Hero raises to $1.20, 3 folds, Button raises to $4.85 (All-In), Hero ???

    Ranges:

    Preflop: Given that he's got the BTN w/ 3.5:1 odds, can i put him anything narrower than AA-22,AKo-ATo,KQo-KTo,QJo-QTo,JTo,AKs-A2s,KQs-KTs,QJs-QTs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s?

    QQ+ i'm unsure about. His 3Bet is 0%...

    Flop: I reckon he's betting with JJ+,99,AJs,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,8s7s,7s6s,AJo,KTo+,QTo+,J To,AsKs,AsQs,AsTs,As8s,As7s,As6s,As4s,As3s,As2s

    All-In: JJ+,99,AsKs,AsQs,AsTs,As8s,As7s,As6s,As4s,As3s,As2 s,KsQs,KsTs,QTs,JTs,8s7s,7s6s,QTo

    Confused now. This is pretty aggro from him. I'm 63% against his sets and draws, but dead v 99 and JJ

    Thoughts? Comments? General ridicule?
    don't want no tutti-frutti, no lollipop
  2. #2
    You should be leading out on this flop with this many, but as played what's the question? Are you actually thinking that folding is a valid option? If so, then <general ridicule>
  3. #3
    MadMojoMonkey's Avatar
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    You're only behind 6 of those combos right now (3 each of JJ and 99), if Villain has one of those, it's a cooler and you're basically drawing dead.
    Since you have 5s, there is 1 less spade to draw for the flush.
    You're basically a coin flip against QTss and T8ss (14 outs) @ 51:49 against.
    Against KQss, Q8ss, and 87ss (11 outs) you're a 58:42 favorite.
    Against any other pocket, you're at least a 2:1 favorite.
    I.e. against any other flush or OESD (8 outs), you're a 68:32 favorite.

    What d0zer said.
    Last edited by MadMojoMonkey; 05-23-2012 at 01:49 PM.
  4. #4
    Not folding.
    Quote Originally Posted by wufwugy View Post
    ongies gonna ong
  5. #5
    DoubleJ's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by OngBonga View Post
    Not folding.
    didn't
    don't want no tutti-frutti, no lollipop
  6. #6
    DoubleJ's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by d0zer View Post
    what's the question?
    @doze

    q1 about leading u answered; thanks.

    @doze + @3M

    q2 is "am i forming those ranges correctly, or do i need to skew them because a loose/passive is betting like a crazy bitch muthaf@kka?"
    don't want no tutti-frutti, no lollipop
  7. #7
    your range should discount AK,QQ+ a bunch, and include more one & two gappers, both suited & unsuited. Also, this villain rly isn't "loose passive". 2x/1x is a pretty different player than a 30/3
    Last edited by d0zer; 05-23-2012 at 11:24 PM.
  8. #8
    rpm's Avatar
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    pre is fine. leading>checking on this board because it's so wet and we are so OOP and multiway. as played call it off.
  9. #9
    Razvan729's Avatar
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    you need 34,8% equity when he shoves.
    the tightest range i can give him for this line is 99/JJ/J9s/QTss/T8ss and vs this range we have 37% equity so it's always a call, even if he is a nit like me.
    All posts are just my own opinion about a hand or a general situation... not advices on how you should play...
  10. #10
    DoubleJ's Avatar
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    Thanks chaps
    don't want no tutti-frutti, no lollipop

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