Shove river?

[PKKFW]

Villain is 17/11 Agg 2.3 cbet 50% over 134 hands. No other reads, haven't seen him do anything stupid or stack off lightly etc.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($10.02)
UTG ($10.43)
MP ($10)
CO ($6.45)
Hero (Button) ($10.26)
SB ($12.32)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 8, 8
1 fold, MP bets $0.30, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.30, 2 folds

Pretty standard call I think. I put him on 22-AA, ATo+, KJs+ with maybe some middle sc's.

Flop: ($0.75) 2, 3, J (2 players)
MP bets $0.50, Hero raises to $1.40, MP calls $0.90

I raise as a bluff figuring if he missed the flop there is a good chance he'll fold out middle pairs and Ax type hands since there's no real draws for those hands. Figure it's not so bad if he floats with AK/AQ as I have position and can see what he does on the turn.

After his call I put him on 99-TT or QQ-AA with AKs possible too. Sets I figure he'd be raising and I don't really see how he could have 2 pair. As mentioned there aren't really any draws that I would give him credit for so I don't see him floating with any SC type hands or KJs+

Turn: ($3.55) 4 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks

I've got showdown value and not a hell of a lot else so choose to take a free card.

River: ($3.55) 8 (2 players)
MP bets $2.30, Hero??

Is anyone ever thinking flush possible here?

[daven]

i like floating this flop

what are you repping as played? You say that you are bluffing, are you hoping that he will fold 88-TT, QQ+? would you raise this flop with a set? would you check back this turn with a set after raising the flop?

[rpm]

agree. i dont understand why you would want to raise this flop with a hand like 88. as played i'm jamming the river. also, you forgot to include KJ,AJ,QJs in his flop calling range

[PKKFW]

I'm repping AJ, KJ and possibly JTs+ type hands and yes I was hoping if he had 88-TT he would fold. As I said, I wouldn't mind Ax type hands floating as I'm ahead of those. Figured I wouldn't get him to fold QQ-AA though. With 88 being likely to run into harder and harder spots on the turn and river I figured I'd try to take it there and see what happens.

As for not barreling the turn, I was behind most of the range I had him on, figured if he didn't believe I had a set on the flop the 4 wasn't going to convince him I did and I was going to simply give up on the river except I hit the 8.

And yes I did forget to include KJ, AJ and QJs in his flop calling range. I'm behind all of that on the turn so I think my turn check is even more ok but maybe I'm looking at it wrong. I'm not sure he'd value bet any of those hands on the river but including them in his range would make a river shove much more +EV so that is something I should have considered.

[ColdDecked]

Call flop. Any other play seems bad. With 88, we have so much showdown value that it is unnecessary for us to bluff with our made hand.

[Alexos]

call flop, as played jam river

[Petulie]

I don't like the raise otf. You rep very little on this board versus someone who likely gives up on missed boards given his low cbet %. Then when you check back the turn you rep even less. Lucky you hit on the river. He could be stabbing with missed overcards, Jx or overpairs, I would shove river with little concern about the flush.

[PKKFW]

Yeah with hindsight and your comments I see that raising the flop wasn't the best of moves.

I'm assuming if we call flop we would be calling turn since it's not really a scare card to us? And folding to a second over card would be pretty standard then?

[baudib]

Probably snapfold if he fires turn unless it's a really weak bet.

[PKKFW]

Probably snapfold if he fires turn unless it's a really weak bet.

So the reasoning is we float flop because there is only a single overcard and if a decent sized bet comes on the turn we give him credit for at least the J and look for a better spot right?