25nl turn FD+OESD vs nit

[Razvan729]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

MP3 ($27.70)
CO ($28)
Button ($25)
SB ($25)
BB ($62)
UTG ($25)
UTG+1 ($35)
Hero (MP1) ($25)
MP2 ($28)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with ,
2 folds, Hero bets $0.75, 1 fold, MP3 calls $0.75, 1 fold, Button calls $0.75, 2 folds

MP3 is 4/1 with AFq 17 over 57 hands, seen him once at SD w/ a AKo 3bet pre in CO vs UTG open, got called , flop was AKTr , called flop and raised AI on turn 5 with top 2 pairs and lost vs UTG's T set, by stats i assume his calling range pre 77-QQ,AQ

BUT is a 20/20 AFq 0 over 5 hands

Flop: ($2.60) , , (3 players)
Hero bets $1.75, MP3 calls $1.75, 1 fold

i think the flop is great for me and i lead out cause i have some FE vs both and enough equity vs theyr calling range.

Turn: ($6.10) (2 players)
Hero bets $4.05, MP3 raises to $13.75,hero?

when MP3 called flop i put him on TT/QQ/AQ . i am sure now that he is not folding anything in his range, but the 9 give's me on OESD+FD and once again i have enough equity to bet 2/3 vs his calling range. i have 31% equity vs AQ/TT/QQ on this flop.

when he raises, i think 90% of time he does it w/ sets. TT/QQ and vs that i have 29.5% equity with 28.88% pot odds, so a call would be slight +EV by math, but if i call i am pot commited.


questions:

is the flop and turn lead ok in this spot?

turn is a call or shove after his raise knowing that we have no FE?

do we ever fold this turn?

how would you play the hand?

i am a big loser at 25nl, it's my 4th try to beat these stakes so i am very unsure about my play at these stakes.

[rong]

You still have a shit tonne of equity here and villains range could be slightly wider than you think, I'd include jj as well for sure.

I prob bet the flop bigger, prob 2.50, then call this turn raise as I can't see villain folding anything that's ahead of us.

[Razvan729]

discounted JJ on his flop calling range, cause i was playing very tight and i was cbetting few hands cause table was full of calling stations. he seen me 3 hands at SD, an AI pre w/QQ vs a fish, a made straight on flop while i was in BUT and a FH rivered by AK FH. so he has no reason to think i cbet with air here.

suppose he does call JJ on flop, does a opp w/ his stats and such low AFq raise turn just on OESD?

[philly and the phanatics]

don't depend on AFq after only 50 hands imo....but i agree i doubt JJ is in his raising range though its pretty likely that it is in his flop calling range.

against a range of all sets (66/99/QQ/TT) you have 29.5% equity....you need 28.9% for the call to be immediately profitable without implied odds....(probably more if you consider rake but the implied odds will more than cover that imo) i'd call and NOT ship imo.

[Razvan729]

yes by math it's a close call on the turn raise, but how do you think about flop/turn lead philly?

would a c/c be better on turn since i have equity to call a psb on turn from him?

[rpm]

call with 12 nut outs (and a decent enough combinatin of pot odds + implied odds + lack of RIO to make it +EV) and C/F any missed river. don't ship it in as you have exactly zero fold equity and likely pretty good implied odds on a call.