Twopair vs bunch of stuff???

[Nekrogovner]

NL10 RUSH. Villain is 17/14 over over 200 hands, based on his VPIP/PFR and stack size, a solid laggish player. 22% steal, so prolly no junk at all, I could put his late position range to AA-22, Axs, JT+, and any suited connectors.

My preflop call was a coinflip I think, since I assumed he doesn't play junk.
Easy call on flop, turn card is somewhat good for me, but completes a possible flush. Right now I'm suspicious of a flush or a set, and some aces (would he check ace, and let me spew into it?).
River card is a nightmare, improving any of his sets into FH, and valuebet looks exactly like he wants me to call. I assume he would check/call any AK-AT on the river? So, fold?




Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (9 handed) - Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

BB ($11.38)
UTG ($8.47)
UTG+1 ($10.45)
MP1 ($5.30)
MP2 ($13.15)
MP3 ($20.84)
Hero (CO) ($13.34)
Button ($9.56)
SB ($15.93)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, 9
4 folds, MP3 bets $0.35, Hero calls $0.35, 3 folds

Flop: ($0.85) 9, 6, 3 (2 players)
MP3 bets $0.56, Hero calls $0.56

Turn: ($1.97) A (2 players)
MP3 bets $1.30, Hero calls $1.30

River: ($4.57) 6 (2 players)
MP3 bets $2.50, Hero ????

[Razvan729]

i would fold that pre or 3bet/fold

simple math:

pot is 4,57+2,5=6,07

you have to call 2,5.... so pot odds are risk/(pot+risk)= 2,5/8,57=29%

put him on a range for betting river, the tightest one i could find is: AA,99,66,33,A9s,A3s,KQdd,QJdd,JTdd, 9Tdd,89dd,78dd, 67dd,AK.

vs that range you have ~45% equity.

since our equity is higher then the pot odds is def a call even with that tight range.

[philly and the phanatics]

id call, if you really think he's checking AK-AT here and hes only betting hands that are better than you then sure fold, but i still think he has those broadway Aces....and the river is a great card for you; it makes it less likely he has a set and its not a diamond or broadway card.

[philly and the phanatics]

razvan, if he is not betting AQ he's def not betting A3 wtf....also he cant have any of those flush draws with the 9d because it is on the board

[Razvan729]

even if we take A3s out , it's still just 2 combos and our equity doesnt drop so much. besides FH,FD we just need him to bet a few times AK there and is a call. any AKd or AQd that he bets on river, is enough for us to call river.

our equity vs 67dd+ up to KQdd, AA,99,66,33,AKd,AQd is 27%. a tighter range then this you cant find for his bet and it's still a very close call.


if he is so tight that he only bets FH or FD here, then after 200 hand we should be aware of that. from math point of view it's ok to call, if we have no reads that he is so tight in his postflop betting, that is only OP's fault and he should pay more attention and take notes.

[oskar]

How is the river not blank again?

The only question on the river is whether to call or raise.
It's a call.

Like razvan said, the only reason this wouldn't be a call is if he doesn't bet AK even. And that's stupid. OP just ran into one of seven or so combos and wants to whine a bit imo.

[philly and the phanatics]

yea i agree i said i would call...just pointing out the errors in your range sorry if im being a jackass and nitpicking

[Razvan729]

np philly, any opinion is welcomed and you were right, if he is not betting AQ then def he is not betting A3

[kiwiMark]

I'd fold pre. As played, I happily call the river, seems like there's plenty of stuff he bets for three streets here that you beat.

[Shotglass]

Looks pretty std to me. Call river. Reload if nec.

[bikes]

How is the river not blank again?

The only question on the river is whether to call or raise.
It's a call.

Like razvan said, the only reason this wouldn't be a call is if he doesn't bet AK even. And that's stupid. OP just ran into one of seven or so combos and wants to whine a bit imo.

could easily be OP ran into AK and wanted to know if there is value in raising.

[Shotglass]

I think that there's little value to be had in raising. Srsly, what worse is gonna call the raise?

[bikes]

i wasnt saying there was value, maybe there is, maybe there isn't but i'm saying the common conception of 'i lost the hand so i posted it' is completely stupid

[Shotglass]

got it

[philly and the phanatics]

yea except in this hand where he goes "WELL RIVER IS DEATH CARD BASICALLY AGAINST FLUSHES AND FH'S FOLD?????"....seems like he lost the hand in my opinion rofl.

[Carroters]

OMG fold cos he just made full houses....Sucks when our opponent reduces his combos of hands that already beat us

[Nekrogovner]

i wasnt saying there was value, maybe there is, maybe there isn't but i'm saying the common conception of 'i lost the hand so i posted it' is completely stupid

Nice deduction. Although somewhat wrong. I did lose the hand. I didn't post it because I lost it. I posted it because I didn't know what to do on the river. Its not like its the only twopair vs scary board situation I ran into during that session, but it was the one where villain was showing the line of pretty solid strenght, and got me thinking how often would he do that sort of move on this board with weak holdings, where he could easily be dominated by anything he actually represents.

[oskar]

If you understand what razvan did in the first reply, and why the river is inconsequential you'll get the most out of this.

However clear this hand is, I think it's a good hand to practice on cos ranges are so narrow and well defined. If you haven't, look for spoons threads about combinatorics and calling river bets in the Beginners Digest (stickied).