running good/playing bad?

[supa]

This is a fairly general question about ev graphs and what they mean. I'm gonna post some hands pertaining to the question later because I don't have time right now, but I think this is a good discussion piece for the bc and if I put it off I prolly won't come back to it.

Over my last 1000+ hands I've been running about 4 buys over ev but I'm down about the same amount. The only reason I can see for this is that I'm folding waaaaaay to much. Thoughts?

[supa]

[Br_]

The EV adjusted line only differs from the winnings line where you go all-in with cards still left to be dealt. Whatever your % chance of winning at the moment you go AI, that is what gives you the EV adjusted line. So taking into consideration ONLY your all-ins with cards left to be dealt, you are running good. You may be folding too much, I don't know, but it has nothing to do with the EV adjusted line.

[rong]

What your graph is telling you is that although you are 4 buyins down, it's only luck that stopped you being 8 buyins down. But it's also a shit measure of luck, as to be 8 buyins down in 1k hands means you are either really, really shit at poker, or you've been real unlucky in some of the many other aspects of luck that your AIEV line does not measure, ie you havd had KK run into AA a few times, or been beaten set over set or w/e.

[kfaess]

just focus on making solid decisions at the tables and results will take care of themselves.

There's nothing to be inferred here I don't think, especially since its such a small sample.

[Carroters]

Over my last 1000+ hands I've been running about 4 buys over ev but I'm down about the same amount.

What this tells you is that variacne over this sample was such that you were down 4 BIs in actual money and 8BIs in EV.

[dahve3d]

Problem with EV graphs:

Suppose that over my last 10k hands I've had AA against my opponent's KK all-in preflop 10 times, but have never had my KK run into opponent's AA. 2 of those 10 times, villain caught a K on the river to beat my AA. My graph would say I'm running below EV, but I am actually running fantastic since the combination of AA vs. KK and KK vs. AA AIPF spots are more or less breakeven in the long run.

There are a hundred of these kinds of examples, and as others have said for a variety of reasons the EV line is essentially meaningless... just focus on making +EV decisions let the line take care of itself.

[spoonitnow]

This is a fairly general question about ev graphs and what they mean. I'm gonna post some hands pertaining to the question later because I don't have time right now, but I think this is a good discussion piece for the bc and if I put it off I prolly won't come back to it.

Over my last 1000+ hands I've been running about 4 buys over ev but I'm down about the same amount. The only reason I can see for this is that I'm folding waaaaaay to much. Thoughts?

Stop checking your graph mid-session

[supa]

lol, I wish I was playing 1000h a sesh right now.

Dan hit the nail on the head. Set over set and shit like that. I actually don't even look at my ev gragh, partly coz I don't understand it. I moved up to 10nl this month and was running really good so I thought I should look into why I was losing money all of the sudden.

Really it is a small sample and shouldn't be concerned. It's kinda funny when you move up and run so good coz you feel like a poker god for a minute only to find out you're far from it.

[grnydrowave2]

Just stop looking at EV graphs, period.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/78...erused-314415/

One interesting point made there:

Another example might be that you get it in preflop with QQ vs a nits AKs and he rivers the K.

"Oh I run so bad and my greenline/blueline/whaterverline shows it" - Not strictly true, the nits range might have been QQ+ AKs so you got it in as a dog against his range even though you were flipping against his cards.

Also, EV graphs are absolutely meaningless in the short term. I played a 1500 hand session once, and was surprised to see that I had been running a few buyins over EV. I didn't recall sucking out on anybody. And I hadn't. Turns out I had just gotten in some big pots as a 70/30 or 80/20 favorite and held up each time. I was winning 100%, which is more than my share. And the bad players that kept getting their money in crushed might look at their EV graph and think that they ran bad, since they won 0% of that money instead of 20-30%. It's true to an extent, but doesn't tell the whole story.

Just winning or losing a few coinflips for stacks will make it seem like you're running super hot or super bad (which is a ridiculous conclusion to draw) if you look at it in the context of a few thousand hands.