I smell a bluff.....what do you think?

[madurskim]

Okay so the initial PF raiser is 14/10 over 150 hands so I put him on a pretty decent holding...77+, KQo+, AQs+ e.t.c. Villain is 49/26 over 57 hands, W$SD 37% and F3B 0/3 so his initial call didn't really mean much to me. 3-betting here to 3x the initial raise is pretty standard for me when in position with a hand like AK...this way if he 4bets me I know I'm up against KK+ and can gladly fold.

When the initial raiser called I figured if he has a pocket pair it has to be at least 99+ and most likely not KK+. When the villain called I figured he must be holding something pretty decent or he really is just a maniac (which his stats do imply)

UTG+1's check on the flop could mean he knows his pocket pair is no good, the flop is the wrong color, or he could have hit big and be slowplaying it.

Villain's bet seemed really suspicious to me...here's why:
1. I have the King of hearts so I know he doesn't have that, and the Ace of hearts is on the board, leaving the only decent holding that would hit the flush QhJh. IF he did have this why the hell would he bet so big? Yeah, I reraised PF, so he could think I have KK, or AA and hit a set...but I'd still be crazy to call given how obvious my Aces would be no good. So if he did hit a strong flush then why would he ever make a pot sized bet?
2. Something like QhJh wasn't even a big part of his range to begin with...I put him on any two cards PF.
3. If he hit a weaker flush then that sure does take a lot of courage to bet like that, which again, given his stats, could be the case. I can't remember specific hands previously, but I had more of a "wild idiot" read on him than a "shove when I hit"

So I called...

I'll be honest and admit that I completely forgot about UTG+1.

When villain shoves on the turn I figured that the only thing he would seriously be doing this with is the nut flush, which I had blocked with the King of hearts. But given his stats I just had a hunch that he was bluffing...especially when considering the adage that "strong means weak, and weak means strong"

I also was up $12 in the past 1.5 hours playing 2NL, so you could say that I was "running good," which I'm sure had an effect on my thought process.


Was I the fish here?





Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (8 handed)

MP2 ($1.45)
Hero (CO) ($2.56)
Button ($1.99)
SB ($1.53)
BB ($0.80)
UTG ($0.54)
UTG+1 ($3.50)
villain (MP1) ($5.74)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A , K
1 fold, UTG+1 bets $0.07, villain calls $0.07, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.22, 3 folds, UTG+1 calls $0.15, villain calls $0.15

Flop: ($0.69) 10 , 9 , A (3 players)
UTG+1 checks, villain bets $0.69, Hero calls $0.69, 1 fold

Turn: ($2.07) 3 (2 players)
villain bets $4.83 (All-In), Hero calls $1.65 (All-In)

River: ($5.37) 5 (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: $5.37 | Rake: $0.35

[Hoopy]

Couple of points.

I'll be honest and admit that I completely forgot about UTG+1.

When villain shoves on the turn I figured that the only thing he would seriously be doing this with is the nut flush, which I had blocked with the King of hearts. But given his stats I just had a hunch that he was bluffing...especially when considering the adage that "strong means weak, and weak means strong"

I also was up $12 in the past 1.5 hours playing 2NL, so you could say that I was "running good," which I'm sure had an effect on my thought process.

This reasoning is bad, don't let how much you're up/down effect decision making (more difficult to eliminate than it first appears). Secondly use logic and maths rather than hunches to make decisions.

Next googling and downloading "pokerstove" will help you a lot. Give him a range of hands and see how much equity you have vs that range, maybe try for specific hands say like AcQd what's your equity ott?

Lastly it's 2NL so don't over think things, everyone sucks.

[Razvan729]

think what could he shove here? you said nothing about how aggro he is

i can figure something like: TT,99, ATs,A9s, AQd, AJd, QJdd.... we could add AK since the Ad is on board and he doesnt put you on KdQd with the 3bet, all these combos are in his range from his stats in my opinion.

that is all i think he would shove on turn.

Board: 3h 9d Td Ad
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.645% 35.28% 11.36% 326 105.00 { AhKd }
Hand 1: 53.355% 41.99% 11.36% 388 105.00 { TT-99, AKs, ATs-A9s, QdJd, AKo, AcQd, AhQd, AsQd, AcJd, AhJd, AsJd }


you pay 1.65 in a 3.65 pot so your pot odds are 30% and equity is 46% according to stove so calling against this range is ok. unless i did wrong the math .

if he isnt very aggro then i would fold turn cause he only shoves sets and flushes.