Flopped top set, beat by villains higher set on turn

[madurskim]

First post, hope all goes well:

Villain sat down at the table about 20 hands ago, not too much of a read on him. He had called me down on a previous hand (some pretty hefty bets) with what I assumed was a flush draw, and folded on the river when he didn't hit it.


I was putting him on some kind of suited/connecting broadway cards due to his passive play on this hand until the river. I knew that he was capable of calling me with a draw since he had done that before. My guess was that he had AJ+ and kept calling me waiting for a 2 to hit to make a straight for him. When the river hit and it was a Q I figured he had AQ and thought I had something like A5.

To be completely honest a medium sized pocket pair wasn't even on my mind with regards to what he was holding. I guess I was too fixated on flopping top set(?) Maybe this was my leak which caused me to lose? But at the same time it seems like he just got lucky. He also disguised it well because the size of his bet compared to the size of the pot was more or less the same on both the flop and the turn.


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (6 handed) -
MP ($3.91)
CO ($2.01)
Hero (Button) ($5.08)
SB ($4.16)
Villain (BB) ($2)
UTG ($0.64)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 5 , 5
Villain bets $0.06, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.06, 1 fold

Flop: ($0.14) 5 , 3 , 4 (2 players)
Villain bets $0.10, Hero calls $0.10

Turn: ($0.34) 9 (2 players)
Villain bets $0.24, Hero raises to $0.60, Villain calls $0.36

River: ($1.54) Q (2 players)
Villain checks, Hero bets $0.32, Villain raises to $1.24 (All-In), Hero calls $0.92

Total pot: $4.02 | Rake: $0.26

[thelorax]

csb
[EDIT]if you think villains range is strictly AQ on the river, why are you betting so small?

[daviddem]

Put him on a RANGE of hands, street by street. You said he seemed passive in general, but he:

- raises preflop
- bets the flop
- bets the turn
- check-raises the river all in

You should be able to reasonably narrow his range. Then figure out whether the river is a call by comparing your equity against your pot odds.

edit: also, I just noticed the title of your post. Do not post results of the hands you post because this infuences how people respond. What everyone is interested into is the decisions made during the hand. The results are irrelevent.

Read this:
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ng-162741.html
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ge-177508.html
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...hlight=calling

[Razvan729]

"Villain bets $0.06, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.06, 1 fold" what position is villain ? cause that aint right with villain being BB

[Carroters]

RANGE

[Carroters]

We can dance around skimming over the surface of the answer for year by saying things like "I figure he haz AQ" which is obviously an absurd unjustified guess in every possible way.

Or.....

We can put our opponent on a range.

Oh btw I figure there are exaclty 790,566 baboons in South America.

[daviddem]

"Villain bets $0.06, 3 folds, Hero calls $0.06, 1 fold" what position is villain ? cause that aint right with villain being BB

Yep, looks like something went wrong with the conversion. You can paste the raw hand history here and we will convert for you. Or use the converter at weaktight.com

[Viscaro]

Oh btw I figure there are exaclty 790,566 baboons in South America.

Baboons are african/azn. Doubt they have THAT many zoos.

As for the hand its pretty trivial that theres no reasonable range where you're not getting it in here. Not a leak. Bet bigger all streets.

[Shotglass]

Hmm, I vote for 2 baboons in S.A. and the rest in Australia:

http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ge-177508.html

[settecba]

dont post results(YOUR TITLE)

raise flop

[OngBonga]

Looks to me like hero limp/called pf.

Raise pre flop, raise flop, shove turn. Don't forget to say nh.

[Shotglass]

Don't forget to say nh.

The most important part. It keeps the fish thinking that they're doing great and dumping their $$$ on weak hands.

[profnabeshin]

Why did you smooth call the 10c bet on flop? I suggest raise to 28-32c on flop.

You flopped a set, you want to set your self up to get it allin by the river. By raising the flop, you set up for larger bets on turn and river.

[couriermike]

FWIW, I would raise the flop and try to get all-in otf or on the turn. Even though you have top set and the flop is not that scary, you still have a small set and the board is drawy, alot of overpairs will come along, and turn or river overcards may kill your action. So I'd play it fast.

As far as putting people on ranges, which I'm practicing myself, it might go something like this...

Villain raised pre so he has a good-looking hand, maybe something like pairs, suited aces, suited connectors, suited gappers, suited broadway and big offsuit aces. Probably he doesn't raise all of those, but he might raise any of them at different times, so we include them all. Against that range, you're 50%.

When he bets the flop, I'd put him on any pair, any draw (including big aces for the gutshot + overs), or better. That's a range of 22+, AJ+, A2s-A7s, 32s-87s, 42s-97s, about 3/4 of his preflop range, and you are 81% against that range. If you think he can call a raise, which he can, because he'll call draws and overpairs, maybe more, you should definitely raise for value.

When he bets the turn, I think he has about the same range but probably fewer pure draws (which we know he plays passively) and more pair+draws. When he bet/calls the turn, he has a good hand, probably flop top + draw, combo draws, overpairs, two pair or better. That range is
33-66, 99+, A6dd, A5s, A2s, 97dd, 87dd, 86dd, 76s-75s, 65s, 64dd, 54s-53s, 43s, 42dd, 32dd,
less than half his flop range and you are 77% against that range. So good raise. Notice that villain no longer has any queens in his range now except QQ.

The river is basically a brick and villain c/r's ai. He could be bluffing a missed draw but I think most times he just c/f's after your display of strength ott or he leads if he just has to bluff. So say he's bluffing 10% of the time. When he's not bluffing and shoves, he thinks he has a nut hand. At this limit, I think he could do this with an overpair to the board or two pair or better. That's a range of
33-44, 99, QQ+, A2s, 76s, 54s, 43s, 53s
and you are 60% against that range. Counting bluffs, you beat about 64% of his range.

Since you're getting pot odds of 3.6:1 or 22%, it's a good call.

If villain only c/shoves sets or better, for a range of 33-44, 99, QQ, A2s, 76s, you're still 30% and should call the river shove even tho it's no fist pump.

[OngBonga]

The most important part. It keeps the fish thinking that they're doing great and dumping their $$$ on weak hands.

Villain in this spot isn't fishy, just lucky. He's got every right to think he's ahead on the flop. I say "nh" in the chat bar to stop me tilting, it demonstrates that you can take the beat and you usually get a "ty" in return. It's poker, this will happen sometimes. It's a =ev cooler, since villain is always returning his stack in the reverse situation.

Saying "nh" to fish is something I also do when they make mistakes and get lucky, obviously because I want them to think their play was good. But that's much harder to do than saying "nh" to someone who actually has a nice hand.