Resteal in SB & flop middle pair on wet board - bet or check? (5NL, FR)

[rowhousepd]

From the SB, I re-raise the deep stack CO's steal attempt and hit middle pair on a coordinated & flushy board. Villain is a typical loose fish (30/12/1.5) who steals an average amount (25%). Don't have reads other than post flop he'll bet when he has a hand, and he actually does know how to fold (showdown ~20%). The BB is a super tight nit who never defends. Two questions:

*Should I have been restealing to begin with w/ ATo? If so, is the bet size ok?

*As played, do I lead into the flop and see where he's at? or check expecting that he'll bet a pair but risk him drawing?

*If he does put in a reasonable raise, I assume I fold?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.05(BB) Replayer
Hero ($5.34)
BB ($11.23)
UTG ($2.60)
UTG+1 ($5.26)
UTG+2 ($4.47)
MP1 ($5.05)
CO ($10.86)
BTN ($4.11)

Dealt to Hero T A

fold, fold, fold, fold, CO raises to $0.17, fold, Hero raises to $0.60, fold, CO calls $0.43

FLOP ($1.25) 9 Q T

...Hero?

[daviddem]

One good question to ask yourself when you consider restealing is "would I be pissed off to have to lay down my hand if he 4b?". If the answer is yes, then strongly consider calling. 3b a polarized range of weak hands with blockers (Ax, Kx, preferably suited) or hands with postflop potential SC's.

On the flop, you have middle pair and 9 outs to two pairs, a straight or trips (but not all of them are clean). Again, this is a hand with good potential that you would not want to have to fold to a raise, so looks to me c/c is correct here.

[philly and the phanatics]

1st- if youre raising preflop as a bluff then i like it, i think you can proabbly profitably call with ATo as you dominate all the Tx in his stealing range and a shit load of Ax...so i would rather pick a hand like A4s than ATo to 3bet here but its ok to defend with in my opinion (assuming you are comfortable playing oop, if you are not then just fold or 3bet like you did).

2nd- I'd bet/fold the flop for about 90c, probably shutting down after that if i get called on almost all turns.

[kfaess]

vs this guy (who is loose/passive and likely to call 3bs wide, esp in position) I would narrow my 3b bluff range and widen my 3b value range.

So, if you're 3bing this for value and have reads that he'll call with worse suited aces, suited connectors, low pp's, etc.. then I like it.

However, it sounds like you think you're bluffing ("restreal"). Not sure why you would want to bluff a guy who doesn't like to fold. I'd rather take hands like AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ, JJ, TT and 3b them for value vs this guy.

[kfaess]

Also, I'd probably bet the flop once and give up if called

[philly and the phanatics]

yea kfaess brings up a good point i didnt even look at the stats (im a fish lol), def dont be 3bet bluffing this guy much, flatting ATo is def the way to go and if your uncomfortable playing oop then just fold pre

[couriermike]

you could also c/f flop and lead turn if he checks back flop

[kmind]

3betting pre is probably +EV and a play I'd make sometimes. It's tough to really categorize it but we can flop TP hands a lot and be happy with it as well as cbet flops we miss. It's crucial you said he can fold. That said flatting is probably better overall. I think it should be more for value which is why I'd say AJ would be my weakest value 3bet.

On the flop, I'd go ahead and b/f. He seems to not be apeshit insane so I think we can get value.

[thelorax]

If the board was a bit dryer I would c/f flop and lead most turns.
On this board, however, I think you should just go ahead and b/f.

[kfaess]

This guy might be loose pf but he's not raising that often. I'm perfectly happy to just fold ATo oop.

[daviddem]

Just messed up my first post and saw that you have no gutshot like I thought you did. In this case, b/f seems the way to go.

[kmind]

This guy might be loose pf but he's not raising that often. I'm perfectly happy to just fold ATo oop.

Folding is viable too for sure. I think almost any option is close. Just keep in mind that a donk's 12% PFR is usually different than a TAG's 12%.

[rowhousepd]

vs this guy (who is loose/passive and likely to call 3bs wide, esp in position) I would narrow my 3b bluff range and widen my 3b value range.

By narrow the bluff range you mean call w/ good but non-premium hands Axo instead of raising? What would I do if I had a hand like AQs? 3bet (for value) in this scenario?

[kfaess]

By narrow the bluff range you mean call w/ good but non-premium hands Axo instead of raising?

well, narrow means take combos out. So, instead of 3bing with A7s or ATo we either call or fold. It's up to you to decide whether you want to call with them or fold them.

What would I do if I had a hand like AQs? 3bet (for value) in this scenario?

Since people took the time to respond to your thread and help you out, make sure you read every post here in its entirety and digest before responding....

However, it sounds like you think you're bluffing ("restreal"). Not sure why you would want to bluff a guy who doesn't like to fold. I'd rather take hands like AQ, AJ, KQ, KJ, JJ, TT and 3b them for value vs this guy.

[rowhousepd]

Since people took the time to respond to your thread and help you out, make sure you read every post here in its entirety and digest before responding....

Ooops, sorry, I misunderstood. Thanks for the replies!

[Icanhastreebet]

Flatting pre fucking blows, folding is a decent option. 3b is certainly best option though. People saying he isn't folding to 3bs a lot are silly. He's some weak/tight 30/12 who gets to showdown TWENTY percent. You guys realize how little that is right? He's fold a lot somewhere and if it's to c-bets then oh hai monies.

That said I would lfdo not c-bet this flop.

[Icanhastreebet]

If the board was a bit dryer I would c/f flop and lead most turns.
On this board, however, I think you should just go ahead and b/f.

This makes no sense what so ever.

[philly and the phanatics]

without spazzing out and pulling your hair out yaawn, can you break down why everything i said is wrong lol...he is raising 25% of hands in steal situations so our hand is crushing that range and we keep in all his dominated Tx (JT/QT/KT/T9s) and all his dominated Ax. You made it sound like you want to 3bet for value, we dont even know how often he calls 3bets, we are going to be OOP vs a range that is likely crushing us....even against this optimistic calling range for him we are getting destroyed and going to be OOP for the remainder of the hand

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 44.262% 39.77% 04.49% 1193024352 134801472.00 { ATo }
Hand 1: 55.738% 51.25% 04.49% 1537329312 134801472.00 { 66+, A7s+, KTs+, A9o+, KJo+ }

And if its doing it as a bluff that you are arguing for then i would much prefer do it with some hand with less value so we dont waste a hand like AT that can pwn all his TP type hands that he will play for big pots....and id rather wait until we know he will actually FOLD to 3b bluffs

[kfaess]

Flatting pre fucking blows, folding is a decent option. 3b is certainly best option though. People saying he isn't folding to 3bs a lot are silly. He's some weak/tight 30/12 who gets to showdown TWENTY percent. You guys realize how little that is right? He's fold a lot somewhere and if it's to c-bets then oh hai monies.

That said I would lfdo not c-bet this flop.

That stat is only useful if we have enough hands on villain. I have no idea when it starts to converge but my guess is that it would take a long time.

Since we don't have a read on how he reacts to 3bs, we have to make an assumption. IMO making the assumption that he calls too many 3bs is much better than the assumption that he folds too often (since that is how the majority of loose fish play).

Clearly this guy likes to call pf. We're supposed to think that he's loose pf but suddenly becomes a super nit post flop? How does that make any sense? Until I see this guy make big folds I'm going to play against him as if he's a huge station, but that's just me.