TPTK on wet board, check-raised by maniac (in the micros)

[rowhousepd]

I find myself not having the stones to call check-raises on the turn for fear of being Beluga'd, but I'm not sure if I'm being overly cautious. Here's a classic for me where I could go either way. The villain is 48/27/2.7. Don't have many notes on him except that he's played junk from all positions (obviously!) and plays both draws & sets aggressively.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.05(BB) Replayer
SB ($1.59)
BB ($10.22)
UTG ($8.87)
UTG+1 ($5)
UTG+2 ($3.58)
Hero ($5)
CO ($9.18)
BTN ($6.19)

Dealt to Hero A K

fold, UTG+1 calls $0.05, UTG+2 calls $0.05, Hero raises to $0.25, fold, fold, SB calls $0.23, fold, UTG+1 calls $0.20, fold

FLOP ($0.85) T A 5

SB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $0.85, SB folds, UTG+1 calls $0.85

TURN ($2.55) T A 5 2

UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $1.90, UTG+1 raises to $3.80, Hero....?

[kfaess]

Do you have a specific reason for why you're calling him a maniac? His stats, while loose, don't look super crazy.

I'd prob just fold unless you know for sure he's raising here with like bare FD's a large % of the time.

[couriermike]

Tough spot. You've shown alot of strength and your hand is a little face up, so folding is totally reasonable. I wouldn't be surprised if he had something stupid like A2 or 34. However, I don't hate calling either because 60% of your stack is in the pot and he doesn't have to be bluffing or semi-bluffing very often to make calling OK. Probably I'd make a crying call, but not sure that's right.

[Icanhastreebet]

How the f is this a tough spot if he's a "maniac" w/o specific reads that he doesn't bluff here. He probably c/c'd the flop w/ some Khigh bs and is c/ring the turn now just cause his cat started scratching at his door.

[rowhousepd]

Do you have a specific reason for why you're calling him a maniac? His stats, while loose, don't look super crazy.

Am I off in thinking that for a full ring game, 48/27/2.7 is a little crazy? Couple more stats: 3bet = 8, Cbet = 70, WTSD = 38. Post-flop he's less wacky, but that's not exactly reasonable ... right? Btw, the only other read I had is that I've seen him check the turn strong in a contested pot.

However, I don't hate calling either because 60% of your stack is in the pot and he doesn't have to be bluffing or semi-bluffing very often to make calling OK.

Hmmm. Could you explain? (Newbie here.)

[daviddem]

No, 48/27/2.7/8 is aggro-maniac at FR. Even at 6max, these are not exactly TAGG stats...

Depends on sample size though, obviously.

[couriermike]

Am I off in thinking that for a full ring game, 48/27/2.7 is a little crazy? Couple more stats: 3bet = 8, Cbet = 70, WTSD = 38. Post-flop he's less wacky, but that's not exactly reasonable ... right? Btw, the only other read I had is that I've seen him check the turn strong in a contested pot.



Hmmm. Could you explain? (Newbie here.)

How To: Analyze Calling An All-in

You're getting better than 4:1 pot odds to basically call all-in. So if you have equity of 20% or better, that means you win against his range 20% of the time or more, then calling is +EV.

There's alot of good stuff in Beginners Digest: LEARNING STARTS HERE

[Viscaro]

Snaps theres plenty of spew bluffs and semi bluffs in his range given the excellent pot odds your getting. This guy is totally insane for ring.

[Shotglass]

Since he plays draws aggressively, and junk from all positions, it’s most likely that he’s on some sort of FD with something between Kx Ax and low ’s. With his stats, and the nice pot odds, I’d call because it could be a complete bluff. If he’s been lucky enough to hit 2 pr on the turn or sucks out the FD, then so be it. Make a note and win your money back during the next few orbits while he’s still being an idiot. I’d also note his screen name to find him in the future =

[rowhousepd]

How To: Analyze Calling An All-in

You're getting better than 4:1 pot odds to basically call all-in. So if you have equity of 20% or better, that means you win against his range 20% of the time or more, then calling is +EV.

Cool. Yeah, I've been meaning to read more threads in that Learning forum. Am about to read that post now. But can someone explain how this calculation works? I believe the pot odds are 4.3:1. What numbers am I crunching to think I'm a favorite? (Just call me Mr Newbie).

As I mentioned, I guess I'm basically gun shy w/ chk-raises on the turn. Normally though (if he had 2 barreled for instance), I know I'm ahead and it would have been an instant call.

[daven]

explain your understanding of "being Beluga'd" - pretty sure at least one BC reader is lost here...
Pre is good. Flop is good. Turn is a call cos put him on a range and you have outs vs some of what beats you, plus you're ahead of some of the rest of it.
read the analyse calling allin thread and do the ranges/maths for yourself

[rowhousepd]

explain your understanding of "being Beluga'd" - pretty sure at least one BC reader is lost here...
Pre is good. Flop is good. Turn is a call cos put him on a range and you have outs vs some of what beats you, plus you're ahead of some of the rest of it.

Ooops, I guess technically you're right. Beluga just means having your bet raised on the turn which should tell you your top pair is beat. Officially i was check-raised, but I think it's the same deal thinking, no?

Also, w/ 48/27/2.7 his range is pretty huuuge, so except for him flopping a set or 2 pair, I'm ahead ... I think...?