TPTK IP v weak op

[argash]

Villain is 69/10 over 50 hands.

I'm pretty happy with my line pre-flop. The flop felt rather dry so I went with a half pot bet for value . The turned 9 added some straight possibilities that could easily fall within his range at this point so I felt that a pot size bet would be appropriate as it should push out his drawier hands but keep him in with his made weak hands. His insta-shove on the river though makes me think his week made hand was a Q and I should be folding here.

Trouble I'm having is assigning him a range that includes a Q..... Strike that, the more I think about it the more obvious it becomes that he has the Q.

In that case let's discuss my line. Could I have taken a better line here to take the pot before the river? I suppose a slightly larger bet on the flop?

$0.02/$0.05 No Limit Holdem
FullTiltPoker
5 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
Villain is 69/10 over 50 hands.

Stacks:
UTG kaspnc ($10.13)
CO 818181818181 ($6.09)
BTN argash ($5.66)
SB SHPandas ($5.06)
BB kingradek ($5)

Pre-Flop: ($0.07, 5 players) argash is BTN
kaspnc raises to $0.10, 818181818181 calls $0.10, argash raises to $0.30, 2 folds, kaspnc calls $0.20, 818181818181 calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.97, 3 players)
kaspnc checks, 818181818181 checks, argash bets $0.45, kaspnc folds, 818181818181 calls $0.45

Turn: ($1.87, 2 players)
818181818181 checks, argash bets $2, 818181818181 calls $2

River: ($5.87, 2 players)
818181818181 goes all-in $3.34, $2.91 to argash ($2.91)?

[oskar]

At least 50c preflop - 60c-$1 preferrably.

The flop is dry-ish but their callign range isn't going to be massively invluenced by your bet sizing, so I would bet bigger.

Betting to "push out draws" is not something you usually want to do. Plus the draws he has are kind of spread out because his range pre is so wide. You kind of have to pay him off the times he has Tx, Jx with a pair because he will stack off with single paired hands often enough.

What could he be bluffing on the river? What could he be value betting?

[couriermike]

He's 69/10, so he's loose-passive. He'll call down light but isn't raising light or bluff-shoving the river. The river's a fold. Bet sizing could be a little bigger otf and a little smaller ott. The middle card pairing is never good for TP.

[Razvan729]

preflop the same as oskar said

flop i would have bet the pot

turn is ok.

river i would have also folded.... in his range and the way he played plus his stats could have J10, KQ, QJ, even Q9... so its best to fold... observe him and notes

[couriermike]

When you barrel TP, the value gets thinner by the street, esp if the board runs bad, so your bet-sizing should reflect the increasing thinness. Something like 75%, 65%, and 50% is pretty standard, possibly even smaller on really bad boards. But these bets are always bet/fold on the turn and river.

The turn 9 isn't that bad a card because alot of his worse one pair hands just picked up gutshot equity and so will def call another street even though they're way behind. The river Q is a bad card because alot of the hands you were getting value from were Qx and of course they just got there. When a passive villain donk shoves here, I think you're almost always beat.

[oskar]

^^ Good observation, but that only holds true if your bet sizing influences his calling range in a significant way... and it's very dependent on his range, your range board texture and spr on the flop.
If you're playing against someone who is unlikely to fold any Kx ever, you want to size your betting to get stacks in on the river. In this case any non J, T, Q river would be decent to value ship if he checks again.

Incidentally 75,65,50 would get stacks in here, but it's not the formula to solve all bet sizing.
[ramble]That's why I dislike the word standard. There definitely is no standard anything regarding poker. No, wait... betting the nuts IP on the river is pretty standard. Other than that it's a pretty non-standard game.[/ramble]

[DBRose]

Fold river...you're almost never gonna see a worse hand than yours from this type of player to a river donk shove like that.