AQo blind vs steal - bluff river air?

[daven]

villain is 15-12-4 (ja, 4 is 3b%) over about 100 hands - he has me around 23-15 over this sample and a reasonably high blinds 3b. He hasn't folded to a 3b yet, has 4b shoved twice - both were spots where he was opening from ep and i wasn't 3-bettor in either spot. Apart from stack size he displays reasonably solid tendencies for the stakes = he hasn't done anything absolutely daft yet. He may even have brain function.

I'm curious about all streets.
pre-flop and obviously 3b is never awful, nor flatting?
flop is interesting, i can do anything here - check-shove is pretty gross tho. I'm calling ahead of his range and with pretty good outs/equity on the rare occasions i'm behind etc

Turn i think i should lead cos the J hits my perceived range and he's folding a whole bunch of the time
river my rationale is similar, plus the flush draw came in - except i look a lot more fos now and he would obviously be justified in looking me up light. also wondering if this in unintended merge? like, how light can he call here?

thoughts?
Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($48.37)
UTG ($32.23)
UTG+1 ($25)
MP1 ($25.60)
MP2 ($25.35)
CO ($15.89)
Button ($35.06)
Hero (SB) ($26.30)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A, Q
4 folds, CO bets $0.75, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.65, 1 fold

Flop: ($1.75) 8, 5, 2 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $1, Hero calls $1

Turn: ($3.75) J (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($3.75) 8 (2 players)
Hero bets $2.80,

[Razvan729]

well... i would have c/f the river... as for him.... dont know what to say about him, but i think his on air also.

[middleburn]

well... i would have c/f the river... as for him.... dont know what to say about him, but i think his on air also.

huh

[Razvan729]

why huh?

[Razvan729]

this is the way i would play a hand like this.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

UTG ($5.72)
MP ($0.68)
CO ($3.30)
Button ($1.05)
SB ($3.75)
Hero (BB) ($2.10)

Preflop: Hero is BB with ,
4 folds, SB bets $0.08, Hero raises to $0.20, SB calls $0.12

Flop: ($0.40) , , (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.26, SB calls $0.26

Turn: ($0.92) (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.72, 1 fold

Total pot: $0.92 | Rake: $0.04

[daviddem]

For Daven's hand:

pre I like to call, 3b polarizes his range too much

flop I'd be tempted to c/r esp. if I have a read that he cbets too much, why do you say it is so bad? You're ahead of his range but you're not so rarely behind, what about all his AK,AQ and PP, most of which you fold with a raise? Maybe I am wrong and it's too obvious an exploit at 25nl though. It's true you would fold a lot of his air and he would only continue with better hands. What's the plan when you call OOP though?

turn: would a donk bet not have the same effect as the check raise? What are you repping if you do that? (this is a genuine question,, just trying to understand why call flop/donk turn would be better than c/r flop)

river: tempting to bluff unless villain has a read that you play draws more aggressively than that... something tells me he does

[Razvan729]

questions are for my hand or daven? cause mine is at 2nl and his is 25nl... strategies are so different

25nl will understand a c/r and may fold... at 2nl means a c/r means all in.

[Imthenewfish]

@Daven- I'm interested in what turns you're leading, assuming you aren't just trying to get to showdown oop and have a plan for this hand on the flawp

[Donachello]

I think it's played fine. Our range contains way more 8x than his does and while we don't have many Jx in our range at this point I'd say we still have a lot more strong hands than he does. Obviously he's never folding a J and probably not 99 or TT but he likely has random overs a lot. If he doesn't suck he probably should be barreling the J turn which may indicate a hand like 22-77 but I still think you could get some fold from these as well.

[Gobbatino]

If he's positionally aware at all I 3bet pre. Most of the time, anyways.

@Razvan: Wildly different hand.

[daven]

If he's positionally aware at all I 3bet pre. Most of the time, anyways.

yeah, me too a bunch

as for the hand, he banked and i think was considering folding his 9s6s rivered flush. Now he calls pretty much anytime i bet on any board , although he is starting to lose some mistrust for me, slowly

[Icanhastreebet]

3b pre ez, don't lead the river.

[daviddem]

Can you guys please explain why you like to 3b pre against a 15/12? What worse hands does he continue with and what better hands does he fold?

[Gobbatino]

For value. AQ does great vs a late position opening range. And because playing oop without initiative blows.

[daviddem]

What hands in the continuing range to a 3b of a 15/12 do you get value from? (unless you have 3b his steals a bunch before, that is)

edit: I just saw that Dave said in op that he has a high blind 3b %, so in that case, yes, 3b makes much more sense to me.

[daven]

CWhat worse hands does he continue with and what better hands does he fold?

pairs and pairs
there is a big difference in stealing 88 then postflop with initiative vs calling a 3b with 88 and praying for a set

[!Luck]

I don't the river lead here. He prob calls with 99+ all you are folding is some low pockets that he chose to cbet. Everything else like broads ways you beat anyways and he is unlikely to bluff with them...

Hopefully that makes sense.

[daviddem]

I don't the river lead here. He prob calls with 99+

JJ+ would bet the turn, no? That leaves 99-TT that *maybe* call. All his other PP and AK you fold. Seems worth a go.

@Daven: OK, get your point with "pairs and pairs". Could you also please come back to why you find a check/raise on the flop would be awful? (see my question in my first post)

[daven]

@Daven- I'm interested in what turns you're leading, assuming you aren't just trying to get to showdown oop and have a plan for this hand on the flawp

i should be leading pretty much any turn card here, this is the first huge mistake made in this hand (not 3-betting pre is not 100% awful)

flop I'd be tempted to c/r esp. if I have a read tha he cbets too much, why do you say it is so bad? You're ahead of his range but you're not so rarely behind, what about all his AK,AQ and PP, most of which you fold with a raise?

it has to be pretty big to avoid pot odds to the draws in his range, making it big means he's calling with hands that are ahead and hands with solid draw equity. The hands he's folding to a c-raise are those that i don't need him to dump at this stage of the hand cos they aren't really going to improve much against me.

What's the plan when you call OOP though?

if i wasn't dumb i'd bet-fold many turn cards, things like Jc would be perfect..

[daviddem]

i should be leading pretty much any turn card here, this is the first huge mistake made in this hand (not 3-betting pre is not 100% awful)

So do you mean your second mistake was to bluff the river? If so, can u please explain why it was a mistake? Is that because he would have barreled the turn with his air, which would leave him on hands that have showdown value like pairs and draws, lots of which will call your bluff or raise it?

[Imthenewfish]

So do you mean your second mistake was to bluff the river? If so, can u please explain why it was a mistake? Is that because he would have barreled the turn with his air, which would leave him on hands that have showdown value like pairs and draws, lots of which will call your bluff or raise it?

Him having air in his range on the river is pretty irrelevant to our bluffing because we already beat most of it

[daviddem]

Him having air in his range on the river is pretty irrelevant to our bluffing because we already beat most of it

It's true we beat most of his air (not AK and AQ). I think a bluff still has a good chance to fold AK,AQ,33,44,66,77, and non spades A5s,A2s.

So why would the bluff be bad, unless he has a reason to think that we always bluff a spade or 8 on the river and/or that we would have played them differently on earlier streets... does he think we would have raised them on the flop or lead them on the turn? If so, which is it and why please?