Stats check considering moving up

[dahve3d]

Hi all -

So I hit my br target I've been aiming for to move up to 5nl today, and am feeling pretty good about my game overall, and wanted to get a check on my stats from 2nl to see what I should be working on and whether or not moving up at this point seems like a good idea.

These are my stats and graph from all 13k hands I've played:





A couple weeks ago I was frustrated with my play and did a lot of looking at my stats and made what I felt like were some pretty big adjustments to my game... I had been running something like 35/33 and was about breakeven around 8k hands or so, so I tightened up my preflop game a fair amount across the board, stopped trying to bluff stations so much, stopped trying to do so much fancy stuff in general and worked on playing very straightforward ABC for the last 5k hands or so. So here's the stats for that stretch:





So aside from the general how am I doing question, I'm also wondering - should I be sticking with this more straightforward TAG style? It definitely feels lower variance and just generally more solid than before when I was playing looser.

Thanks in advance for any insight you guys have to offer... you have all been a huge help to me so far even though I haven't been posting much and I really appreciate it.

[Openside]

should I be sticking with this more straightforward TAG style?

Yes. Pick a style that works and is simple. Once you feel that you have that down then you can add more facets to your play.
Just an observation, 29/27 to 24/22 is not a huge change and given your sample size you may just be observing variance. Id stick at it for 20k hands using a specific style and reacess.

What is your br? I would move up to 5nl when you have 20-30 buy-ins at 5nl ($100-$150). Then move back down if you drop to 30 buy-ins at 2nl. GL bud.

[dahve3d]

BR is ~$100 at the moment... plan would be to move up and go down from playing 6 tables of 2nl to maybe 3-4 of 5nl, moving back down if I get down around $60.

Also for what it's worth the switch is bigger than from 29/27 to 24/22 - the first graph includes the stretch after I tightened up, filtered for only the time where I was playing looser it actually ends up being more like 33/31.

Edit: One more thing, I'm well aware 5k is not a sufficient sample size to conclude anything - the only reason I included the second set of graphs is because I wanted to give at least some idea of how I'm currently playing since those first stats don't represent it as well.

[Openside]

BR is ~$100 at the moment... plan would be to move up and go down from playing 6 tables of 2nl to maybe 3-4 of 5nl, moving back down if I get down around $60.

Also for what it's worth the switch is bigger than from 29/27 to 24/22 - the first graph includes the stretch after I tightened up, filtered for only the time where I was playing looser it actually ends up being more like 33/31.

Edit: One more thing, I'm well aware 5k is not a sufficient sample size to conclude anything - the only reason I included the second set of graphs is because I wanted to give at least some idea of how I'm currently playing since those first stats don't represent it as well.

Right on. Your BR management sounds spot-on. I think moving up is two dimensional; am i BR for it and am i winning at this stake? If your answer to both is yes and you strictly adhere to your BR management i'd go for it.

[JustinSKS]

Why you losing so much in the cut off?

[OngBonga]

Why you losing so much in the cut off?

This is a very good question. Find out the reason, you should be making money here.

[Penneywize]

In regards to your graph - this isn't really the kind of trend I'd be looking for if I were thinking about moving up; you basically hover around BE for over 10k hands and then go on a heater. If it were me, I'd like to see consistent winnings, an overall upward trend... For example:



This was my May 2nl graph; I even continued playing at this stake for a few weeks into June before moving up to 5nl.

All that being said - 5NL is mad easy. Your BR is large enough to sustain swings, and you can always move back down for more seasoning. Take a 5 BI shot. If in future, however, you're looking to move up to ever higher stakes, be sure that you can beat the level you're playing consistently - you shouldn't need a heater to justify a move-up.

[dahve3d]

Yeah the CO situation is a mystery to me... I did some filtering in HEM today trying to see what might be the issue but I didn't come up with much. Any ideas about what I should be looking for that might be a cause of that?

And yeah penney I know it does look like I went on a heater at the end there... I definitely did to some degree, and what you say definitely makes sense about the signs that it's a good idea to move up, thank you. But yeah the last 5k hands I played on that second graph definitely felt like I was winning more consistently and playing more solid... granted it's small sample size but I'm happy to move back down if it turns out I need some more time.

[PokerWang]

You should try and move up. If it gets to hard then just go back down. As for your CO, get a poker coach. He'll tell you exactly what's wrong.

[OngBonga]

Yeah the CO situation is a mystery to me... I did some filtering in HEM today trying to see what might be the issue but I didn't come up with much. Any ideas about what I should be looking for that might be a cause of that?

Not sure really, I guess I'd just study my CO hands and see first of all if there's a larger amount than normal of unavoidable big pot coolers that might skew the stats. After that, I guess you want to be looking at where your money is going, ie to early position raisers, or button callers etc. Are you calling too many raises? Or raising too many marginal spots? I'm sure others can tell you what else you could be looking for.

[Keith]

look at your 3bet stats . they are way to high . you toned it down across other positions except the co . the co stats are still high and you are losing money. you look like you are building big pots against maybe strong early position ranges and getting crushed when they continue against you. Aggresion also looks high. people will be looking at your oplay and think hes always three betting ....he ain't got anything too good and weaken their calling and shoving ranges.

same thing with your 4bet stats 5% implies you are stacking off light.

[dahve3d]

Yeah that was definitely something I've been thinking about, the other day I was just realizing my 3bet ranges are pretty static and I'm not adjusting them much for position of the first raiser and villain tendencies and that sort of thing... I'm looking at my 3bet spots in the CO though and my winrate is just about the same as on the BU, I'm actually doing a little better in the CO so I think that might just be sample size

I was looking at the spots I've stacked off pre in the CO, and I think you're right about those - I've done some pretty questionable stuff, although that was mostly when I was first getting started and I'm playing much tighter now.

Looks overall to me like a mix of needing to tighten up my big pot game in the CO and sample size... preflop I think a lot of the time I do stuff in the CO thinking "oh the BU will fold and I'll have position" but I need to stop assuming that so much and do it based on reads/stats more.

[StarGrinder]

You should try and move up. If it gets to hard then just go back down. As for your CO, get a poker coach. He'll tell you exactly what's wrong.

Or just get ripped in IRC for free.

[dahve3d]

Or just get ripped in IRC for free.

+1

[Gobbatino]

Move up, dude. At worst you move back down, it's np. At best you learn a new stake and evolve as a player.

Work on one or two things at a time, don't try to change too much all at the same time.