5NL-FR AA UTG

[daviddem]

Opp is 42/0/0.6 over only 13 hands. Folded twice to a raise before and I have seen him limp with Q5o.

His calling range pre I'd say 22-JJ, A7s+,A9o+, K9+,Q9+,J9+,T9s,T8s,98s,97s,87s,86s,76s

I think my flop bet is OK, could have potted it given the drawy board and to get more value from his queens?

His flop calling range (all his made hands and his draws, not counting most gutshots): 99-JJ,AsKs,AQs,AsJs,ATs,As9s,As8s,As7s,KTs+,Q9s+,J9s+ ,T8s+,9s8s,9s7s,8s7s,8s6s,7s6s,AQo,ATo,KTo+,Q9o+,J 9o+

The Qc on the turn is a good card for his range. I stoved this and I get only 44% in my favor. Getting better if I add more gutshots or PP or Asxs to his range.

I chose to bet the turn (is this correct? comments about sizing?), and would have seriously considered folding if raised (correct?).

Regardless, he calls (same range as above minus 99 and JJ) and comes the blank on the river. Now I think it was a serious mistake to bet this river, because I don't get any value from his busted draws and I am crushed by the rest of his range, none of which he is folding. Comments?

If I don't bet the river and he shoves, then he would have to be bluffing with a busted draw >23% of the time to make a call profitable. Call?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.05 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

MP1 ($4.64)
MP2 ($2.67)
CO ($5)
Button ($6.35)
SB ($4.95)
BB ($4.26)
Hero (UTG) ($5.22)
UTG+1 ($5.33)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, A
Hero bets $0.20, 2 folds, MP2 calls $0.20, 4 folds

Flop: ($0.47) Q, 10, 10 (2 players)
Hero bets $0.35, MP2 calls $0.35

Turn: ($1.17) Q (2 players)
Hero bets $0.85, MP2 calls $0.85

River: ($2.87) 5 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.30

[deucesomething]

Now I think it was a serious mistake to bet this river, because I don't get any value from his busted draws and I am crushed by the rest of his range, none of which he is folding.

/thread

check turn

//thread

[rpm]

you need 50% equity or greater in order for a value bet to have a higher EV than checking. against the range you gave your opponent on the turn (i don't necessarily agree with that range, but just to highlight the point) you have

Board: Qs Ts Tc Qc
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.728% 31.73% 00.00% 1061 0.00 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 68.272% 68.27% 00.00% 2283 0.00 { AQs, ATs, As7s, KTs+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 8s6s, 7s6s, AQo, ATo, KTo, Q9o+, J9o+ }


i personally would expect him to be more inclined to call with JJ than all the non ace-high flush draws. regardless, i think checking is easily the best option. now to elaborate that point even further, using your same range, let's look at what he calls the river with, assuming he folds all his missed draws because they are now high-card hands:

Board: Qs Ts Tc Qc 5h
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 00.000% 00.00% 00.00% 0 0.00 { AcAd }
Hand 1: 100.000% 100.00% 00.00% 48 0.00 { AQs, ATs, KQs, KTs, Q9s+, T8s+, AQo, ATo, KTo, Q9o+, JTo }

so the EV of your river bet is probably roughly something like -1.3/0.05 = -26BB.

i think you knew most of the above by the time you'd typed out your post though.

[daviddem]

First of all, sorry I mistyped his turn continuing range: should have been:
TT,AsKs,AQs,AsJs,ATs,As9s,As8s,As7s,KTs+,Q9s+,J9s+ ,T8s+,9s8s,9s7s,8s7s,8s6s,7s6s,AQo,ATo,KTo+,Q9o+,J 9o+
and my equity is 39%.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   4,356  games     0.002 secs     2,178,000  games/sec

Board: Qs Ts Tc Qc
Dead:  

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0:     61.272%      61.27%     00.00%               2669             0.00   { TT, AsKs, AQs, AsJs, ATs, As9s, As8s, As7s, KTs+, Q9s+, J9s+, T8s+, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 8s6s, 7s6s, AQo, ATo, KTo+, Q9o+, J9o+ }
Hand 1:     38.728%      38.73%     00.00%               1687             0.00   { AcAd }

To get this out of the way, I totally agree that the river bet was really stupid.

Now the turn, I am not sure. Is it a check/fold you are suggesting? I got seriously flamed in my recent QQ thread for checking a turn where I had my opp on a range (arguably too tight) against which I had less than 50% equity.

Let's first assume for the purpose of the discussion that the range above is correct. I have less than 50% equity so mathematically I should not bet. But if I check and show weakness, am I not exposing myself to being bluffed out of the hand when he bets one of his draws or a PP? Is this not one of these cases that ISF is talking about in his thread when he says that bet/folding is often a better option than checking?

Now the range: I need to get better at putting opps on ranges, but it seems to me the one I put him on is rather pessimistic? First of all, if I go by his stats, he is not the kind who lays down a suited ace pre, so he probably has more Asxs than I assigned him. Then a Q could be discounted, because you could argue that a Q would raise the flop. If he is bad, then yes, he slowplays trip T's, so let's keep them in there. Also not counting that some opps of his style call this flop with a just a gutshot. Adding all the Asxs and removing the Q's we get:

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   3,256  games     0.002 secs     1,628,000  games/sec

Board: Qs Ts Tc Qc
Dead:  

    equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    
Hand 0:     49.969%      49.97%     00.00%               1627             0.00   { TT, AsKs, AsJs, ATs, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As4s, As3s, As2s, J9s+, T8s+, 9s8s, 9s7s, 8s7s, 8s6s, 7s6s, AQo, ATo, KTo+, J9o+ }
Hand 1:     50.031%      50.03%     00.00%               1629             0.00   { AcAd }

Not great, but it doesn't seem totally unrealistic that we have closer to 50% than we may have thought. Now let's call it 50% or very slightly less. Is it still a check, giving a free card to all his draws and possibly exposing ourselves to bluffs?

Appreciate all comments (and the ranges you would use). Looks like my turn and river plays need a lot of work.

[rpm]

my last post (where i advocated checking the turn) was more "if this is what you think your opponents range is, this is what i think you should do". i'll go more into what i think his range is and how i'd react after about 8 hours sleep and 1 exam.

[daviddem]

/thread check turn //thread

Sorry but this doesn't help... like telling a kid that 4/7=0.5714 without explaining how to get there: might remember this particular case, but hasn't learned anything...

OK, I have one simple question to get my ideas straight: you are OOP on the turn against an opp who can only have two hands (50/50 chance he has either). One of these hands has 100% equity against yours, and the other has 0% equity against yours. So obviously against this range you have exactly 50% equity.
1) Do you generally prefer to bet or check and why? If there is no straight answer, please say in what kind of circumstances you would prefer to bet or check (opp's style, board texture, whatever factors would influence your decision)
2) When you prefer one of these two options for whatever reason, how much do you prefer it? In other words, if you have 49% equity instead of 50, does that affect your decision? 45%? 40%?

[deucesomething]

well you need to think what worse he will call with when you bet the turn. him floating you with A high is less likely here since you're holding two of them. so unless you think he will peel with draws to the non-nuts (straights, flushes) when you bet, I like a check here. if he bets, calling is a matter of whether you think he can turn his hands into bluffs on boards like these, his bet size, timing, etc.

[rpm]

you are OOP on the turn against an opp who can only have two hands (50/50 chance he has either). One of these hands has 100% equity against yours, and the other has 0% equity against yours. So obviously against this range you have exactly 50% equity.
1) Do you generally prefer to bet or check and why? If there is no straight answer, please say in what kind of circumstances you would prefer to bet or check (opp's style, board texture, whatever factors would influence your decision)
2) When you prefer one of these two options for whatever reason, how much do you prefer it? In other words, if you have 49% equity instead of 50, does that affect your decision? 45%? 40%?

1 - it depends on his what he does with each. the only way betting can NOT be of a lesser EV than checking is if he calls 100% of betsizes with all of his range on 100% of remaining streets in the hand (in this case, turn and river), in which case you have 50% equity over both those streets (hopefully you notice here that it's almost never so cut and dry as having either 100% or 0% equity when there are still cards to come, and this influences our decision, but it's helpful from a theoretical understanding perspective to use these exhaggerated examples) against his calling range and betting has a neutral expectation (ie it merely serves to increase variance). however, if he has 6 combos which have 100% equity against us, and 6 which have 0%, but he only calls with the range we beat 5/6 times, and never folds a better hand, our value-bet has a negative expectation in a vacuum, because when he calls, we lose that bet 7/12 times, and win only 5/12

2 - not sure exactly what you mean by this but i'll try to answer. pretend we are on the river in a certain spot (implication being hands of lesser value than ours have no equity, and hands stronger have 100% equity), if we have 50% or greater equity against villain's calling range to a particular betsize, the bet has a positive expectation. obviously if we beat 55% of his calling range, our EV is higher than if we only beat 51%. and 60% is better than 54% etc etc. note however that if villain ever bluffs us with a worse hand, this equity edge is negated, and so we want a slightly higher equity edge to compensate for the times we are incorrectly made to fold the best hand. i hope that goes some to way to answering your question.