NFD and overs in 3bet pot

[dahve3d]

One more hand from today - CO was 36/18 over 34 hands, BU was 56/19 over 28, both seemed fairly loose/passive somewhat fishy. Hadn't seen either of them do anything too out of line.

On this flop I figure I have 9 outs to the nuts and 6 more to what is probably the best hand so it's worth a bet here even though it's multiway, I think I get calls here from KcX, QcX, any PP with a club, all overpairs, sets should probably raise here but I could see these players flatting them. Against that calling range I'm pretty close to even, so adding in FE a flop bet here looks like it's +EV to me.

It's once he calls the flop bet that my plan kinda falls apart... I turn a gutshot which gives me 3 more outs, but against the calling range I gave him on the flop I'm still well below 50% equity so if I'm betting here it's as a bluff... given sizing though all I can really do is shove here. I could see him calling a shove with sets, made flushes, and overpairs that have a club (maybe folding some of these?), and folding any KcX/QcX hands... that doesn't seem like enough FE to justify a shove though. Should I c/f here and cut my losses/hope to see a river cheap? Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated.

$0.01/$0.02 No Limit Holdem
6 Players

Stacks:
UTG ($2.86)
UTG+1 ($4.20)
CO ($1.83)
BTN ($1.36)
Hero ($2)
BB ($1.93)

Pre-Flop: ($0.03, 6 players) Hero is SB
2 folds, CO raises to $0.07, BTN calls $0.07, Hero raises to $0.24, 1 fold, CO calls $0.17, BTN calls $0.17

Flop: ($0.74, 3 players)
Hero bets $0.55, CO calls $0.55, BTN folds

Turn: ($1.84, 2 players)
Hero ($1.21)?

[philly and the phanatics]

check /evaluate based on timing/sizing ect ...you said hes pretty passive so id expect him to check behind on a board like this so you can fold a good % of the time, theres no sense in barrelling him if he wont fold and all you have is A-high (the 5 isnt a great barrell card, it gives you some more equity but it doesnt really change his calling range much at all)

this all could be wrong though id be interested to hear what others say about this spot


edit after throwing together a pretty optimistic range for you you have ~45% equity (although i assumed he was calling another street with Qcx and Kcx)...so you can check call here for sure, probably close to being an EV+ bet so idk its pretty marginal i think (could be wrong), but now that ive seen a stove calculation and know that we have 45% equity im def never folding

[bikes]

jam he folds pairs sometimes and makes lul calls with worse as well sometimes

[Donachello]

jam he folds pairs sometimes and makes lul calls with worse as well sometimes

+1

[supa]

Agree w/ op on the fact that he has very little f/e. It's 2nl and if ops' read on him is right (loose/passive) he's never folding after calling that flop.

Check turn and see the river for free. He'll call a shove on a club river cuz he has Kc or Qc in this spot alot.

[kmind]

jam he folds pairs sometimes and makes lul calls with worse as well sometimes

agreed.

[Micro2Macro]

yeah what bbickes said.

[deucesomething]

Check turn and see the river for free. He'll call a shove on a club river cuz he has Kc or Qc in this spot alot.

op is first to act here, if villain bets we almost always have to fold.

[daviddem]

Pardon me if this is totally wrong, but is it OK to cbet this flop OOP against two station-style opps?

- your hand is fair, and it would be bad to have to throw it away if your cbet is raised (cbet a polarized range: your nut hands and your air, not your fair hands)
- if you are called, you just built a really big pot with only a drawing hand (and find yourself in a tough situation OOP on most turns)
- if you cbet you've put 40% of your stack in the pot, so you are pretty much committed