5nl Overcards vs Flop 4bet shove

[EasyPoker]

Villain is 43/14 over 22 hands. No reads on him...

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.05(BB) Replayer
SB ($11.85)
BB ($12.11)
UTG ($3.09)
Hero ($12.69)
CO ($3.02)
BTN ($6.45)

Dealt to Hero 9 9

UTG raises to $0.10, Hero calls $0.10, fold, fold, fold, fold

FLOP ($0.27) 8 2 4

UTG bets $0.25, Hero raises to $1, UTG raises to $2.99 (AI), Hero ??

Shoving range for him in this spot could be TT+,88,44,22,A8s+,K8s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,87s,A8o, K8o

Which I'm 56% favourite over...

[EasyPoker]

In b4
http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...ll-173396.html

[surviva316]

his range is much stronger than what you gave him due to the fact that he opened PF. he's also less likely to have 22/44 due to this

[EasyPoker]

And having done the calculation in the above thread, I learn that this should have been a snap call if my range above is accurate:

1) Pot = $4.26
2) What is the bet? = $2.99, but we are calling $1.99, so $1.99
3) Our equity vs the range I assigned above = 56%
4) $1.99/$1.99+$6.25 (which is bet/bet+pot) = 31.84% which is less than our equity vs this range.

Even having removed some of the junk TP hands taking my equity to around 51% It looks as though I still should have called.

All comments welcome

[baudib]

I have you somewhere between 20-25% equity. He's not shipping this flop with AsJs.

[EasyPoker]

Not even diamonds?

Aren't we giving him too much credit?

[spoonitnow]

Overcards? Wat?

[daviddem]

Preflop, let's say he raises 10% of his hands UTG. That would be something like 77+,A9s+,KTs+,QTs+,AJo+,KQo+ (so we exclude 22-44 for the exercise, but again some people raise any pair, so you can redo the below calcs with 22+ instead of 77+)

Let's imagine he c-bets his entire range.

After he reraises your flop raise, without further reads, I'd say this is what is left in his range:
TT+,Ad9d+,KdTd+,QdTd+,AdJd+,KdQd+, against which you have 25.9% equity on this board.

That's if he shoves all his flush draws. If he doesn't, then your equity is worse. Some villains also do that with just overcards (AKo for example), in which case you equity gets much better.

Pot odds:
$1.99/$6.25 = 31.8% > 25.9% -> fold.

If he does that with the previous range, plus all his AK combos, your equity becomes 38.7%, making a call profitable, but I'd only call if I have seen him do that with just overcards before.

[tiltisthename]

Villain is 43/14 over 22 hands. No reads on him...

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.05(BB) Replayer
SB ($11.85)
BB ($12.11)
UTG ($3.09)
Hero ($12.69)
CO ($3.02)
BTN ($6.45)

Dealt to Hero 9 9

UTG raises to $0.10, Hero calls $0.10, fold, fold, fold, fold

FLOP ($0.27) 8 2 4

UTG bets $0.25, Hero raises to $1, UTG raises to $2.99 (AI), Hero ??

Shoving range for him in this spot could be TT+,88,44,22,A8s+,K8s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,87s,A8o, K8o

Which I'm 56% favourite over...

Using the range you gave I think you're overestimating your equity. You are I think at best flipping here. Non-diamonds K9s+, Q9s+ and J9s+ aren't shoving unless villain's a complete retard.

IMO given stats and without further reads I can't really see him doing this with a draw. Villain seems more like a passive player due to a huge discrepancy in VP and PFR, so I would think that his range here is more like TT+,88,44,22 (44 and 22 are a bit questionable), all of which have us beat. I just can't see him taking this line with 33,55-77 and draws since those are likely to just c/c or b/c. So I fold.

This is only because I don't really know the villain's tendencies postflop. And I'm basing this on solely on villain's PF stats so my analysis is questionable. Just giving my thoughts on how I'd play this hand.

[tomato paste carnage]

You are I think at best flipping here.

This.

You gave villain a much wider range than what is probable. Overpairs are a large part of villain's range, all of which have you beat (aside from the one combo that splits the pot).
Against AKs / AQs, you're flipping. The rest of villains range is weighted towards 88,22,44.

If and when you find that villain is playing A8s+,K8s+,Q8s+,J8s+,T8s+,98s,87s,A8o, K8o like this, go ahead and make the call ... but because you don't have any reads, I'd let it go.

[Vinland]

I wouldnt start putting FD's in his shoving range until you have some reads on him. And hands like Q8 might be a stretch. You raised him, and he 4bet you, he wants a call more often than not.

[Donachello]

Instasnap super fold. Also, raising this flop is meh

[kmind]

Fold flop to his first bet

[AFchung]

don't raise flop. call and re-eval turn

raising flop just gets worse hands to fold and better hands to call and bloat the pot or jam

[tiltisthename]

don't raise flop. call and re-eval turn

raising flop just gets worse hands to fold and better hands to call and bloat the pot or jam

Yeah, and this, except that there's the chance that draws might call, but that's just a small percentage IMO.

[TheLongGrind]

ugh i don't like the 3 bet on flop , i like a flat to c if a blank pops on turn, basically if you are gonna 3 bet flop it should be a 3 bet for value not to chase him out the pot by definition. If you have the best hand u should maximise your value. If you 3 bet there and then feel disgusted when he makes a 4 bet well then you should fold your hand , i don't feel like you have much beat on that flop , hence why i'd always call on that flop, yes many turncards will be trouble cards , but some lowball cards will also give your hand better chances to get to showdown. ont he flop i'd be more concerned to get the hand to showdown, your equity will go up when a blank hits turn. i'd never 3 bet that flop unless i got a lock- read on villain