thanks for the comments. i'm unsure about my feelings here as i havent done the in-depth range analysis. however i think labelling a 25/15 over 21 hands as a station isn't really accurate. he's shown that he is raising a decent amount of hands he is vpip'ing (at least compared to the 40/6 stationy types). it's a tiny sample so he could obviously go either way, but it's all i have to go on and any "read" is better than none. as for the cbet sample, yeah i didn't give much weight to that. i think you're right in saying he has Ax in his range here, and it's not folding. but i'm interested in how much of that range is Ax or 3x hands, and how much is middle pairs which can't stand the heat.
i imagine he's calling the flop with all of 44-QQ (51 combos by my quick mental calculation, possibly wrong). i need him to fold 40% of the time for my turn bet to be breakeven in a vacuum. assuming he folds all of 44-JJ (48 combos) on the turn, he needs to have roughly 70 or more combos of Ax in his range for it to be -EV in a vacuum. factoring in blockers, in terms of Ax hands, thats something like A9+ (Ak,AJ,AQ have 12 each, coming to 36, AT and A9 have 16 each, coming to 68 total), however i imagine he 3bets AK pre, so perhaps as low as A8+. i'm guessing that A8 is close to the bottom of his Ax range that he calls with pre. plus i have something like 12 outs to a straight/flush so, based on this shorthand analysis, i don't mind firing that turn barrel at all.
btw, i have
Board: 3d 3s As Qs
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.003% 24.00% 00.00% 602 0.00 { KsJh }
Hand 1: 75.997% 76.00% 00.00% 1906 0.00 { QQ, JcJs, JdJs, JhJs, TcTs, TdTs, ThTs, 9c9s, 9d9s, 9h9s, 33, AQs-A8s, QsJs, JsTs, Ts9s, 9s8s, 8s7s, 7s6s, 6s5s, 5s4s, 43s, AQo-ATo }
24% when called, so i don't strictly need 40% folds, because the turn isn't being played in a vacuum. anyway, i'll do some more in depth analysis later, and then possibly agree with you that it sucked. btw, in this thread, you're encouraged to ramble as much as you want.
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