Turn QQ into a bluff on this river?

[Donachello]

Vill was 33/25/ 7% 3b over 32 hands which means he was probably more of a 16/13 who was running hot after sitting down. I haven't gotten into any spots with him at this point but he does seem quite aggressive (could also be due to his running good).


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (6 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP ($10.15)
CO ($10)
Button ($11.84)
SB ($3.70)
BB ($14.30)
Hero (UTG) ($22.81)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q, Q
Hero bets $0.40, 4 folds, BB raises to $1.50, Hero calls $1.10

Flop: ($3.05) 7, 3, 9 (2 players)
BB bets $1, Hero calls $1

Turn: ($5.05) 8 (2 players)
BB bets $4, Hero calls $4

River: ($13.05) 10 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks or shoves

Total pot: $13.05

Basically I have two questions here. 1) vs. said villain with the amount of information I have on him is this an okay spot to turn my overpair into a bluff on this specific river by shoving against what is potentially a range of KK+, AK? 2) Vs a total nit villain would you consider bluff shoving here or is the SPR just too bad for me to ever bluff in this spot?

Okay 3rd question. Would you consider bluffing here if the pot was more like 8.50-10 (giving me an almost potsized shove instead of a 2/3s (effective stacks nah mean) one)

I thought about just putting this in the FR forum but I didn't know if I was allowed to put 10NL hands there.

[Sasquach991]

Vill was 33/25/ 7% 3b over 32 hands which means he was probably more of a 16/13 who was running hot after sitting down. .

Why do you think this? If you're wrong, then he's not folding to a shove with KK+

[Hoopy]

1) I think his 3betting range is wider than KK+, AK though it's obviously a small sample, include some air in it. Probably check back river because we achieved our goal of pot control and keeping his range wider on earlier streets + I wouldn't trust him to fold KK+. We would also normally have very few flushes or straights (AhKh, JJ and maybe AhQh) in our range. Plus he's getting a decent price to call.

2+3) Wouldn't shove vs a nit either, I hate turning QQ into a bluff in this spot but that's just personal preference so could be wrong.

[kfaess]

I hate to say what has almost become cliche in the BC lately, but I really think it would help if you included a calling range for a 33/25, a 16/13, and a nit. I mean this looks more like a math problem than anything else.

Anyway, to answer your questions:

1) vs an unknown I wouldn't shove here without more specific reads. We really have no idea how he plays yet and whether he is capable of folding an overpair.

2) vs a nit its a lot closer, the Th is a nice scare card and depending on our image I think we could have more flushes/straights than AKhh, AQhh, JJ because we're IP vs someone who has been active at the table. Calling with a hand like QJs can't be terrible here.

3) How much more FE do you think this would give you? I don't think you would gain very much FE and with the bigger PSB you would now have to fold out more of his range in order for the bluff to be profitable (or since his range is so narrow maybe he still folds the same exact hands, but in that case it would just mean that you're making less on your bluff)

[spoonitnow]

I don't think he folds better often enough for shoving to be better than checking. It might be worth noting that the EV of checking isn't 0. Good to be thinking about these things, though.

[Micro2Macro]

lol @ his 3bet size