25NL-AKs against reg

[Sasquach991]

turn bet was for value. River bet a bluff or value? I almost timed out thinking about it. I had originally planned to fold if heart hit river but the bet sizing looked bluffy. Villian's turn check seemed to put me ahead. If he hits flush does he < 1/2 pot bet river?

16/13/3 over 200
3% 3bet
67% cbet

$0.10/$0.25 No Limit Holdem
9 Players
Hand Conversion Powered by weaktight.com
16/13/3 over 200
3% 3bet
67% cbet

Stacks:
UTG ($11.34)
UTG+1 ($40.99)
MP1 ($26.05)
MP2 ($19.75)
MP3 ($23.80)
Hero ($25)
BTN ($77.15)
SB ($17)
BB ($11.56)
Pre-Flop: ($0.35, 9 players) Hero is CO
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $1, 3 folds, Hero calls $1, 3 folds
Flop: ($2.35, 2 players)
UTG+1 bets $1.50, Hero calls $1.50
Turn: ($5.35, 2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $2.80, UTG+1 calls $2.80
River: ($10.95, 2 players)
UTG+1 bets $4.50, $4.5 to Hero ($19.7)?

[StarGrinder]

Why are you worried about a 3rd heart falling? The only thing I can see in his UTG raising range is AQhh or AJhh. He probably thinks you're FOS with that weak turn bet.

[Sasquach991]

Why are you worried about a 3rd heart falling? The only thing I can see in his UTG raising range is AQhh or AJhh. He probably thinks you're FOS with that weak turn bet.

Weak turn bet was intentional.

Why not 88+ for his UTG raising range along with some broadways?

[Imthenewfish]

bet moar on turn plz, the hands he's calling a 2.80 bet are leik the same hands he's calling like a 4.50 bet. I'd call river because we only need like 22?% equity. I agree with stargrinder that there aren't a lot of combos of FD's in his EP range and think this bet is a blocker often enough for us to call.

[StarGrinder]

Why not 88+ for his UTG raising range along with some broadways?

The AQhh and AJhh was only the suited cards in his UTG raising range, not his entire range. Of course he has 88+ or 22+. Definitely bet more on turn if you're so worried about the flush hitting. Pound them, make him pay for his draw... however, I see KQ, lower pairs and bottom sets here WAY more often.

[Donachello]

Since this is a reoccurring theme in every single one of your threads I am going to only respond in one. Your bet sizing is absolutely terrible. Always. Bet more when you have strong hands, people will call. You keep getting yourself into stupid spots because your bet sizing is stupid and comes off as weak BS. Man up and put some god damn chips in the middle. You're giving every draw ever correct odds to call and you super underrep your hand. If your plan is to try and induce bluffs by betting weakly then sure, have fun guessing whether people are bluffing or not.

And he never has a flush here. Like ever. Snap call.

[kmind]

Listen, I bet turn small a lot more than most people but this isn't that situation. I mean what do you think his c/calling range here on the turn is? Mainly TT-QQ, KQs (maybe), AQhh. He's either c/f or c/c a reasonable sized bet. Def. need to know UTG stats to add other FD or like JTs that will call a small bet which is barely any combos.

[StarGrinder]

since this is a reoccurring theme in every single one of your threads i am going to only respond in one. Your bet sizing is absolutely terrible. Always. Bet more when you have strong hands, people will call. You keep getting yourself into stupid spots because your bet sizing is stupid and comes off as weak bs. Man up and put some god damn chips in the middle. You're giving every draw ever correct odds to call and you super underrep your hand. If your plan is to try and induce bluffs by betting weakly then sure, have fun guessing whether people are bluffing or not.

qft

[Sasquach991]

If I bet turn larger (say ~$4) is TT-QQ and FD still calling?

When he checked the turn I didn't think the FD was in his range as I think he would have barrelled. I did not want TT-QQ to fold so I bet small. I did not think he had flush but I wanted to post this hand to see if I was thinking right. I hit his range correctly for a change.

[kmind]

I agreed that a FD makes up barely any combos but still bet larger. IMO, over a big sample, a bigger bet here would be more +EV. Yeah he's less likely to call a bigger bet but the % he does plus amount we bet will be greater than the higher % he calls a $2.8 bet. Just my opinion.

[Icanhastreebet]

Why are you betting so small in every hand you post?

[PlayToWin]

If he hits flush does he < 1/2 pot bet river?

Just to add my .02 on this. I think he does this all day long with the flush. He wants more value out of his hand and he may hope you shove as well.

[NightGizmo]

If you bet the turn larger, you make the river much more straightforward. Think about it from an odds perspective:

You bet 1/2 pot on the turn (we'll call this TB for "turn bet") and you're worried about the flush draw. He's now getting nearly 3:1 immediate pot odds on a 4.1:1 draw. If he calls to chase and the draw completes, he only has to make another 1.1*TB on the river to break even. So his 1.5*TB river bet could be for value with a flush, hoping to not blow your weak-looking hand out of calling.

But if you bet closer to a PSB, he's only getting 2:1 immediate odds, so he has to bet at least 2.1*TB on the river to make a profit. Since the pot is 3*TB on the river, that means he is probably going to either pot it or overbet, so that his optimistic turn call can actually be profitable. That larger bet size also means that this shouldn't be a bluff as much in similar spots with air because (a) you've already shown more strength, making the bluff less likely to work and (b) the larger bet size means the bluff has to be successful more often.

[Fnord]

I kind of like making a smallish turn bet here a lot but I'm probably thinking about this a lot deeper.

That said, I usually go about 2/3 to 3/4 pot here.

[ljove]

I saw players who makes small river bets when board is scary just to scare you and to see cheap showdown.

[Hoopy]

I kind of like making a smallish turn bet here a lot but I'm probably thinking about this a lot deeper.

That said, I usually go about 2/3 to 3/4 pot here.

I'd really like to know why you'd make a small turn bet here sometimes, if it's not too much trouble to give your reasoning.

[Imthenewfish]

I saw players who makes small river bets when board is scary just to scare you and to see cheap showdown.

i also saw someone fold a $10 pot to a $0.03 all in bet, does this mean I should always save a few pennys behind when im bluffing so i can continue it with a bet that only has to work 1 in a thousand times?????????

[shallam]

Interesting hand.


A couple of questions. First why not raise on the flop ? Second how did you choose your bet size on the turn ? It sounds like you put him at least partially on a flush draw, wouldn't that dicate a larger turn value bet ? Like 2/3p ?


His river bet size is interesting too. At my level (lower stakes) opps generally play straightforward. If they have a big hand they make a big bet. As I understand it this reverses itself at the higher levels -- where folks often make small easily called bets to make sure their hands get paid. It sounds like you believe the small bet size is more indicative of a bluff -- yet if he really wanted to represent a flush he should make a big bet.


In any case I think the standard play here would be to call. I don't think the bulk of the evidence allows you a narrow enough read to conclude a flush with confidence. In fact I think that if he had a flush he'd make a bigger bet around the size of the pot maybe more. You have showed strength throughout the hand, he should absolutely be putting you on a strong hand. In fact, exactly AK would be my first guess. Finally you are gettting pretty good odds, better than 3 to 1, to pick off a bluff or weaker hand.


Is this opp, or your opps general, advanced enough in their thinking to read your analysis, he thinks you think he has a flush draw, and make a small bet disguising the true strength of his hand in order to get you to call ?


If so I think I almost feel obligated to pay the guy off for his advanced thinking !

[Fnord]

I'd really like to know why you'd make a small turn bet here sometimes, if it's not too much trouble to give your reasoning.

He's weak and we can probably bet 100% of our range here and show a profit. Also, with this particular hand, I want to keep weak hands in the pot or inspire some weird act of aggression.

[surviva316]

sometimes this small donk is him trying to not scare us away with his flush, sometimes it's a blocking bet, sometimes he's even remotely aware enough to balance it between the two, but he has VERY few possible combos of hands that beat us here, so that even if he's doing something wierd with the other hands in his range only like 5% of the time he holds those hands, we're still getting the required equity (<25%) to call here

[daven]

i'm interested in your pre-flop and flop play.

[Sasquach991]

i'm interested in your pre-flop and flop play.

Flat AKs as not to fold out hands I'm ahead of and I get in trouble 3betting AK against regs as I do not intend to shove AK most of the time unless I know they will shove AQ,AJ,.... Plus he's almost 200bb deep

Villian cbets 67% so he will do this with 88+ and weaker K's and FDs so I call.

[StarGrinder]

I don't mind the call pre. Against a looser opener, I'd consider 3betting but flatting is fine. Not sure what daven is getting at here.

[Imthenewfish]

Flat AKs as not to fold out hands I'm ahead of and I get in trouble 3betting AK against regs as I do not intend to shove AK most of the time unless I know they will shove AQ,AJ,.... Plus he's almost 200bb deep

Villian cbets 67% so he will do this with 88+ and weaker K's and FDs so I call.

I thought that we 3b AK for value so that we can have more combos in our 3b bluff range

[NightGizmo]

Plus he's almost 200bb deep

You have 100bb, so all of his chips above 100bb don't matter.

I'm fine with the flat pre, mainly because you have position, the opportunity to flop a good hand that is more disguised, and you keep his range wider for value.

[FTR Bad Beat]

Folds

[surviva316]

startin' to feel like a broken record. maybe i should start a thread about this sometime when i'm not working 3 jobs and don't have time to start BC threads...

the biggest factor for whether or not you should 3b preflop for value is if they are continuing with dominated hands. arguments for 3b'ing for value that don't quite make the cut include:

-ZOMG I HAZ AK!
-lol balance at the micros
-you should only 3b EP openers with AA suited
etc.

fwiw, the second most important factor is prolly the reads you have on players left to act.

[c4ptain_obv]

I don't mind the call pre. Against a looser opener, I'd consider 3betting but flatting is fine. Not sure what daven is getting at here.

Doesn't that require fold/call 3B stats or at least some read about that?

[sk8r_daniel]

If I bet turn larger (say ~$4) is TT-QQ and FD still calling?

When he checked the turn I didn't think the FD was in his range as I think he would have barrelled. I did not want TT-QQ to fold so I bet small. I did not think he had flush but I wanted to post this hand to see if I was thinking right. I hit his range correctly for a change.

Then bet 3.8... it looks less scary.