AQ off versus a nit and a funky line.

[littleogre]

Ok his pfr is 6 over 182 hands and his afq is 25.


PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.02 BB (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($3.85)
Hero (UTG) ($3.18)
Button ($0.98)
SB ($4.49)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with A, Q
Hero bets $0.10, 1 fold, SB raises to $0.30, 1 fold, Hero calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.62) 4, Q, 2 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks

Turn: ($0.62) 8 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $0.58, SB raises to $1.16

Ok raising aQ pf seems pretty standard to me. When he 3-bets calling may be a little questionable as im not sure what is 3-betting range but i assume it's lower then his pfr. Anyway i feel i can out play him on the flop . my plan is to check call tptk and c-raise if i hit anything better. If i hit a pair lower then top i will likely fold unless he gives me implied odds of atleast 30-1 i've ran similar peeps through stox and those are the numbers we need to chase 2p+. So i flop TPTK and check. He checks behind. I figure busted AK or maybe a scared KQ Anyway will continue thoughts later gotta go all of the sudden.

[caddie444]

Anyway i feel i can out play him on the flop . my plan is to check call tptk and c-raise if i hit anything better. If i hit a pair lower then top i will likely fold unless he gives me implied odds of atleast 30-1 i've ran similar peeps through stox and those are the numbers we need to chase 2p+. So i flop TPTK and check. He checks behind. I figure busted AK or maybe a scared KQ Anyway will continue thoughts later gotta go all of the sudden.

You can't check/call or check raise in position.

How can you hit a pair lower than top?

I've never ran a peeps

I can't really comment on your thoughts b/c I can't really make sense of them so I'll just comment on the hand.

Someone who has a PFR of 6% raising a UTG opener from OOP is going to have an extremely tight range, which makes this a pretty standard fold preflop. You can't 'outplay' someone with a strong range with AQ. Besides don't worry about outplaying anybody, learn the fundamentals of the game first.

[JKDS]

pfr and afq are fairly useless here. we want stats thatll help us determine a range he 3bets from the blinds with and notes that are related to that.

Without anything to indicate otherwise, fold preflop and its not close. You cant outplay someone when you have no idea what theyre range is so just fold. Also planing to call and c/f unless we hit TPTK or better is a pretty horrid plan.

[d0zer]

im not sure what is 3-betting range but i assume it's lower then his pfr.

I hate those villains who 3bet more than they raise preflop





...just fold pre, his range crushes you -- as played fold, his range crushes you.

[Micro2Macro]

fold pre end of thread.

[daven]

Ok his pfr is 6 over 182 hands and his afq is 25.


Ok raising aQ pf seems pretty standard to me. When he 3-bets calling may be REALLY FUCKING STUPID

fyp

[Hoopy]

Analysis makes no sense, your IP for starters.

Calling a 3 bet with a dominated hand against a monstrously strong range to "outplay" him on the flop is terrible.

DUCY?

[kfaess]

not much else to say here, just fold it d00d

EDIT: preflop i should add

[littleogre]

ok i see you guys don't like my pf call. Would it make any difference if i said i had been bullying the table since i sat down. I put him on the Fuck you reraise That was my feeling through out the hand. Of course he could be trapping with AA also. Another bit of info my c-bet ratio since joining the table was 100 percent. So i would expect him to just flat and reraise me on the flop if he had a big hand. If he knows i'm bluffing a lot and a c-bet is a given it makes no sense to reraise me at that point. He will make more money by calling then reraising my c-bet.

On the turn i'm just not sure what hands he is gonna check the flop then check raise the turn with.

[daven]

Would it make any difference if i said i had been bullying the table since i sat down.

nope. You made a bad error of judgement preflop. End of story.

Of course he could be trapping with AA also.

how is 3-betting AA preflop a trap?!

[Micro2Macro]

ok i see you guys don't like my pf call. Would it make any difference if i said i had been bullying the table since i sat down. I put him on the Fuck you reraise That was my feeling through out the hand. Of course he could be trapping with AA also. Another bit of info my c-bet ratio since joining the table was 100 percent. So i would expect him to just flat and reraise me on the flop if he had a big hand. If he knows i'm bluffing a lot and a c-bet is a given it makes no sense to reraise me at that point. He will make more money by calling then reraising my c-bet.

On the turn i'm just not sure what hands he is gonna check the flop then check raise the turn with.

No. If you were bullying the table and this nit realized it, he would play even tighter and just wait to trap you. That is why he is playing 2nl and not 1knl. He's not going to play back without a hand he's comfortable with, so don't level yourself. Don't expect your opponents to adjust rationally.

[littleogre]

nope. You made a bad error of judgement preflop. End of story.


how is 3-betting AA preflop a trap?!

It isn't or atleast not a good one. Well it can be but not against someone playing the way i was. I'm trying to say that if he has AA calling my raise then raising my c-bet >then 3-betting me PF. Perhaps i made an error in judgment but my main reason for not folding was yes i felt like he was playing back at me. I had increased my role by 50% with out seeing a single showdown.

Anyway i would like your opinion on what hands you think he is gonna have when he plays the flop and turn the way that he did.

[Keith]

use stove .....look at what 6% of hands is ....thats what he is comfortable raising with roughly 55+, AK

then assume that he's only going to be 3betting a third of that range i.e 2% KK+ AK or in other words you're screwed.

You seem to be over thinking from what i've seen from your posts, to beat 2nl just get the money in with your good hands and fold to aggression unless you have a monster. You don't have top get fancy, try and outplay your opponents with a worse hand BECAUSE THEY WONT FOLD. Therefore bet your good hand and fold your junk. THey'll pay you off when you have it and if you try to get fancy you'll pay them off when they have it.

[littleogre]

ok i appreciate all advice give but i'm still curious as to what you guys put him on given his flop and turn action. Checking the flop after 3-betting then c-raising the turn is such a funky line.

[littleogre]

use stove .....look at what 6% of hands is ....thats what he is comfortable raising with roughly 55+, AK

then assume that he's only going to be 3betting a third of that range i.e 2% KK+ AK or in other words you're screwed.

You seem to be over thinking from what i've seen from your posts, to beat 2nl just get the money in with your good hands and fold to aggression unless you have a monster. You don't have top get fancy, try and outplay your opponents with a worse hand BECAUSE THEY WONT FOLD. Therefore bet your good hand and fold your junk. THey'll pay you off when you have it and if you try to get fancy you'll pay them off when they have it.

When i say out play i don't really mean making fancy bluffs. More i mean understanding my opponents ranges and knowing when to fold or call marginal hands. Example i raise Pf with QQ villain calls. Flop comes A53. I c-bet villain raises. I know from my db that he only raises over pairs or better and his cpfr. 20%. His raise gives me 3-1 odds should i call or fold. In short i try to make better mathematical decisions after the flop then my opponents.

[Keith]

ok i appreciate all advice give but i'm still curious as to what you guys put him on given his flop and turn action. Checking the flop after 3-betting then c-raising the turn is such a funky line.

you said you were pushing the table over . He likely has AA KK and thinks you probably don't have enough to continue to his cbet, therefore he checked thinking you would bet and he could check raise the flop. you didn't bet so he thought you were definately to weak to call a delayed cbet and used the same line to let you try and bluf him off the pot , you oblige and he gets the money in, he min raised to let you call (bad play) and left it so the money could be all in on the river. Whats funky about that?

[Keith]

When i say out play i don't really mean making fancy bluffs. More i mean understanding my opponents ranges and knowing when to fold or call marginal hands. Example i raise Pf with QQ villain calls. Flop comes A53. I c-bet villain raises. I know from my db that he only raises over pairs or better and his cpfr. 20%. His raise gives me 3-1 odds should i call or fold. In short i try to make better
mathematical decisions after the flop then my opponents.

wheres the evidence of this in this hand?. you called a nits 3bet with AQo , that should be an easy fold in this case because his range is far stronger than your cards. Going back to your first post you thought he could have a scared KQ , which is unlikey to be in his pre raising range let alone in his 3 betting range.

[littleogre]

wheres the evidence of this in this hand?. you called a nits 3bet with AQo , that should be an easy fold in this case because his range is far stronger than your cards. Going back to your first post you thought he could have a scared KQ , which is unlikey to be in his pre raising range let alone in his 3 betting range.

Actually he had even worse then KQ. I confess my plays may have been mathematically bad but my bullshit radar was in full effect. It was saying this guy is full of it and is just tired of you pushing him around . I put him on the fuck you for raising again range. The question is how big is this parts of a nits range. Not sure if it matters but hem puts him at 6 pfr and poker sleuth says 4 with a margin of error of 3. So his actual pfr is between 1 and 7

[Keith]

whats his VPIP though and whats his 3bet stat. THose are the stast you should be looking at in this case if hes a 8/6 he's a completely different player to a 45/6.

Last post seems to be a "wow , look how well i soul read him" type post and conveniently ignores the other 20 times you do the same thing and they turn up with the goods.

[littleogre]

ok another question say villains 3-betting range is QQ+ and he will call a pot bet on all 3 streets even if the board has an ace and he has QQ or kk do we gain enough value from his in ability to fold big under pairs to make calling correct? I know villain can have 2 combos AA 2 combos OF KK and 2 of QQ so he would have AA 33% of the time and QQ?KK 66% of the time That isn't exactly true though because i have an ace. so He can only make 1 pair of aces so it would be 122. He would have AA 20% QQ-KK 80% I think thats right. Honestly i use software for counting combos Away from the table. It just occurred to me that i'm still wrong i have a Q so he can only have a pair of Qs once. So thats 112 or It also occurs to me that useing percentages doesn't really work. Cause 33+33 +66 is >100 His range would be greatly weighted to KK Though . Now lets say our plan was to Go to town if we flop an ace. As a matter of fact to keep things simple lets assume he will stack off whether he has QQ or KK or AA. I confess i will probably need to use stox ev to figure this one out.

[StarGrinder]

You have position but his range is so heavily weighted towards hands that crush you {QQ+, AK}. Sure, he has KQ or JJ here occasionally, but it's rare. And I'm not sure I feel real peachy about battling a nit in a 3-bet pot where his range smacks us in the face. But that's just me.

[littleogre]

ok time to fire up stox. I honestly don't no the answer to the question i asked a couple post back. This next comment is directed towards keith i will be the first to admit my soul reader is not perfect and i have posted hands before where i lost my stack.

[littleogre]

The play would actually work with any ace even A2 is good enough. Assuming all assumptions are true. I would need a good read on villain though to make those assumptions. So it doesn't apply in this case.

[littleogre]

you said you were pushing the table over . He likely has AA KK and thinks you probably don't have enough to continue to his cbet, therefore he checked thinking you would bet and he could check raise the flop. you didn't bet so he thought you were definately to weak to call a delayed cbet and used the same line to let you try and bluf him off the pot , you oblige and he gets the money in, he min raised to let you call (bad play) and left it so the money could be all in on the river. Whats funky about that?

Well for one thing most nits have a super high C-betting frequency so when they check i kinda assume that they missed the flop. Getting of subject but over all betting the turn after a pfr flop bettor has checked the flop and turn has shown a profit but the sample size is small so it could be variance.

[littleogre]

To let the cat out of the bag he had QJ. Given the way i had been playing i guess A pair of qs with a decent kicker looked like the nuts to him. I think once he flopped the Q his plan was similar to the one that keith out lined. So my read was wrong. I expected him to show up with air or a busted AK. Even ACKc for the flush

[littleogre]

Oh i thought i posted it already but i don't see it. If we have AQ and we assume vill has QQ+ and will stack off every time. Calling his 3-bet with a plan of continuing if we flop an ace or better is +.12 ev

[shallam]

At this limit a 3 bet often means aces or kings. Keep that in mind.


So here is a possible range taking into account the flop cards but not flop play.



Hands that beat you
AA.....3 combos
KK.....6 combos
QQ.....1 combo

Total = 10

Hands you beat
AK.....12 combos
JJ ......6 combos

Total = 18


Mathematically AK and JJ account for a lot of the hands, but they aren't particularly consistent with how he has played the hand. He 3 bet PF. Postflop, he is playing the hand tricky aggressive, consistent with having a monster hand. AK and JJ are totally inconsistent with how he is playing this hand. Thus, I would weight the hands that beat you category more strongly than the hands that beat you. I don't like the way he is playing the hand.


---Play of the hand + Combos probability estimates---
Hands that beat you 75%
Hands you beat 25%



I would play this hand cautiously postflop. I'd prefer bets in the 1/2 to 2/3 areas. Your very large turn bet has put you in a tough spot, as you are now forced to play a big pot with hand that might be in very bad shape.


It looks to me like he wants to play for stacks. I'd be inclined to fold. Calling isn't terrible, but be aware that you are likely to get sucked in here, get pot committed and lose your stack if he indeed has AA, KK or QQ.


He's claiming to have a monster hand. I believe him.


If you fold and he shows you AK, JJ or something trashier -- make a note of it and try to play more pots with this joker.

[shallam]

Knowing that you have been bullying the table does matter -- some. However I believe that the other facts overwhelm this possiblity. Checking & calling might seem ok -- unless you find he wants to play for your stack.


Then what ?

[shallam]

Now that I see that results obviously I'm pretty surprised, and clearly your read at the table was more accurate than the hand reading analysis that I and other players provided. :<


I guess I'm glad I didn't come on too strong as a know it all !! :>


This time. :/

[Donachello]

fold pre end of thread.

^^^this

[Keith]

ok another question say villains 3-betting range is QQ+ and he will call a pot bet on all 3 streets even if the board has an ace and he has QQ or kk do we gain enough value from his in ability to fold big under pairs to make calling correct? I know villain can have 2 combos AA 2 combos OF KK and 2 of QQ so he would have AA 33% of the time and QQ?KK 66% of the time That isn't exactly true though because i have an ace. so He can only make 1 pair of aces so it would be 122. He would have AA 20% QQ-KK 80% I think thats right. Honestly i use software for counting combos Away from the table. It just occurred to me that i'm still wrong i have a Q so he can only have a pair of Qs once. So thats 112 or It also occurs to me that useing percentages doesn't really work. Cause 33+33 +66 is >100 His range would be greatly weighted to KK Though . Now lets say our plan was to Go to town if we flop an ace. As a matter of fact to keep things simple lets assume he will stack off whether he has QQ or KK or AA. I confess i will probably need to use stox ev to figure this one out.

A nit isn't going to be calling 3 pot sized bets with KK QQ on an A high board . THats why they are nits, they stack off with the nuts .

[Keith]

Well for one thing most nits have a super high C-betting frequency so when they check i kinda assume that they missed the flop. Getting of subject but over all betting the turn after a pfr flop bettor has checked the flop and turn has shown a profit but the sample size is small so it could be variance.

since nits usually have a very strong range heading into the flop, they will also check raise a lot to get the money in with there monsters and get money out of bluffers who'd fold to a cbet.

[JKDS]

Wtf is going on? Fucking fold pre.

[Micro2Macro]

You are not good enough to be 'running the table over' and 'playing LAG' at 2nl.

[daven]

Anyway i would like your opinion on what hands you think he is gonna have when he plays the flop and turn the way that he did.

who cares, the mistake occurred preflop. end of story. Lock someone?

but my bullshit radar was in full effect. It was saying this guy is full of it and is just tired of you pushing him around . I put him on the fuck you for raising again range.

well functioning bullshit radar + huge edge in putting players on ranges -> i don't understand why op isn't crushing midstakes by now. Seriously.

oh, and

You are not good enough to be 'running the table over' and 'playing LAG' at 2nl.

qfmft

[StarGrinder]

Wtf is going on? Fucking fold pre.

LOL

You are not good enough to be 'running the table over' and 'playing LAG' at 2nl.

Is there such a thing at 2nl?

[spoonitnow]

Being 100% serious, you need to spend some time really focusing on and figuring out why AQ is a fold pre-flop here. You need to put at least an hour or two into looking at every possible bit of information you can about this situation that dictates whether you should fold or not. If you do that, then you'll progress as a poker player.

[philly and the phanatics]

thats not a funky line....this is YouTube - Seinfeld theme on bass

no but seriously lock this shit up its 40 posts saying fold pre if he doesnt get it by now....

[littleogre]

A nit isn't going to be calling 3 pot sized bets with KK QQ on an A high board . THats why they are nits, they stack off with the nuts .

Well i'm getting outside of the scope of the original post but not all nits Are the same. Some have a super low pfr and only raise QQ+. When they raise though they will not let the hand go. I also have nits in my db that only raise AA and will not stack off unless they hit a set.

[littleogre]

You are not good enough to be 'running the table over' and 'playing LAG' at 2nl.

Do i need to be that good when they constantly fold? Everyone at the table had a fold to c-bet of 60% or higher. So all my profit up untill the hand in question came from the very basic and simple raise prefop c-bet flop. Also i play more slag then lag . I may raise JT off in position if it's limped to me but no i'm not strong enough to 3-bet a a hand like JT.

[d0zer]

just move up to where they respek your slag already

[IowaSkinsFan]

a good lag would fold AQ pre here. Any good player would

[Imthenewfish]

wtf in b4 lock

[kiwiMark]

just move up to where they respek your slag already

giving this some love before lock

[Keith]

Well i'm getting outside of the scope of the original post but not all nits Are the same. Some have a super low pfr and only raise QQ+. When they raise though they will not let the hand go. I also have nits in my db that only raise AA and will not stack off unless they hit a set.

Jeez , you keep going on about your database. Give us the stats that bloody matter in this case . His VPIP and his 3bet%. If he's 3betting you with QJ i wouldn't mind betting that hes nearer a 40/6 than an 8/6. If he's a 40/6 he isn't a nit.The rest of your statement is confirming that yes nits will only stack off with the nuts.

Do i need to be that good when they constantly fold? Everyone at the table had a fold to c-bet of 60% or higher. So all my profit up untill the hand in question came from the very basic and simple raise prefop c-bet flop. Also i play more slag then lag . I may raise JT off in position if it's limped to me but no i'm not strong enough to 3-bet a a hand like JT.

why are you going on about fold to cbet stat .This is a pot where you've been 3bet. he isn't going to 3bet you and then fold.

best advice i can give is to watch these videos

KRCMDC's 6-max poker videos

he goes from 25$ to 75$ and moves up to 5nl in 7 hours of play and tells you the strategy for doing it....

[Micro2Macro]

a good lag would fold AQ pre here. Any good player would

this post is actually amazing when viewed from the right angle

[littleogre]

Jeez , you keep going on about your database. Give us the stats that bloody matter in this case . His VPIP and his 3bet%. If he's 3betting you with QJ i wouldn't mind betting that hes nearer a 40/6 than an 8/6. If he's a 40/6 he isn't a nit.The rest of your statement is confirming that yes nits will only stack off with the nuts.



why are you going on about fold to cbet stat .This is a pot where you've been 3bet. he isn't going to 3bet you and then fold.

best advice i can give is to watch these videos

KRCMDC's 6-max poker videos

No you misunderstand me Obviously

he goes from 25$ to 75$ and moves up to 5nl in 7 hours of play and tells you the strategy for doing it....

No you misunderstand me Obviously his fold to c-bet stat is irrelevant in this hand. I meant the way i had built my stack was by raising a lot of limped pots and constantly c-betting. I don't play 6 max but i'll check that video out.

[Outlaw]

ok i appreciate all advice give but i'm still curious as to what you guys put him on given his flop and turn action. Checking the flop after 3-betting then c-raising the turn is such a funky line.

Nothing that you beat

[littleogre]

right I'm assuming that your stars SN is littleogre as well.

http://www.pokertableratings.com/han...507/8271205840

that hand is a perfect example of why you aren't beating 2nl. You shouldn't even be involved in the hand rather than trying to bluff your way through it at 2nl.


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

Again , this confirms the story from the original hand , the hand i just linked and your comments in this thread. Just tighten the hell up learn to play tight , don't get into spots,profit and move up.

It looks like you probably win lots of small pots and spew shitloads away bluffing trying to make stations fold with junk.

Well my first comment is leakbuster says just the opposite of ptr when it comes to my river play it says i'm not aggro enough and that i should value bet even more thinly then what i already do.
Interestingly enough it also gives me a ten when it comes to my pfr

As far as leaks go it says my biggest ones are I call 3-bets to often. The other one is i call river bets to often I do call a lot of river bets with weaker holdings like under pairs even when i think i'm like beaten. This is because i constantly find myself in spots where someone will bet 10 cents into a 60 cent pot or something gay like that. This is the main part of my game that i'm working at the moment.

[littleogre]

oh and it also gives me a 10 for flop aggression

[Keith]

As far as leaks go it says my biggest ones are I call 3-bets to often.

If you tighten up you aren't calling these 3bets , what has everyone throug ht his thread been telling you about the original hand.

The other one is i call river bets to often I do call a lot of river bets with weaker holdings like under pairs even when i think i'm like beaten. This is because i constantly find myself in spots where someone will bet 10 cents into a 60 cent pot or something gay like that.

This is because you aren't playing tightly, If you start off with atight range you are hitting the top pairs , when you play loose you are hitting second and third pairs, you hit second flushes, bottom set etc.

This is the main part of my game that i'm working at the moment.

the easiest way to work on it is play twice as many tables and at least half the number of hands at each table i.e play 15/12 instead of 30/25. You'll actually play the same number of hands but your ranges will be a whole lot stronger for the hands you do play.

[spoonitnow]

{Locked}

I'm pretty sure we've gotten about as much out of this thread as we can and now it's going to start headed towards personal attacks and things of that nature.