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Alright, what I'm about to do might be horrible, but I'm just going to do it. When I used pokerstove, what I did to get a range was take the top 29%, and then eliminate the top 11%. I also don't think he's following pokerstove's top hands, and in a mw limped pot, may be limping some of the weaker cards in the top 11%, or some of the higher suited hands. Anyways here's what we get for a range::
If he played EVERY ONE of these hands on this flop, which is a horrible assumption IMO:
Board: 8c 8s Jd As 8d
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 63.736% 56.04% 07.69% 102 14.00 { Jc5c }
Hand 1: 36.264% 28.57% 07.69% 52 14.00 { 77-55, A8s-A2s, K9s-K5s, Q9s-Q7s, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, ATo-A7o, KJo-K9o, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Alright, now we'll go through his hands and eliminate some that he PROBABLY wouldn't be continuing on that flop, even to a small bet.
Board: 8c 8s Jd As 8d
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.111% 40.74% 10.37% 55 14.00 { Jc5c }
Hand 1: 48.889% 38.52% 10.37% 52 14.00 { 77-55, A8s-A2s, K8s, Q8s, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, ATo-A7o, KJo, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Let's eliminate the gutshots...
Board: 8c 8s Jd As 8d
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 40.541% 27.93% 12.61% 31 14.00 { Jc5c }
Hand 1: 59.459% 46.85% 12.61% 52 14.00 { 77-55, A8s-A2s, K8s, Q8s, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, ATo-A7o, KJo, QJo, J9o+, T9o }
This is pretty much a made hand that he could have had based on the cards on the board, with the exception being T9o, as I think he could easily play the oesd this way. But notably a lot of our equity comes from this oesd, and:
Board: 8c 8s Jd As 8d
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 30.526% 15.79% 14.74% 15 14.00 { Jc5c }
Hand 1: 69.474% 54.74% 14.74% 52 14.00 { 77-55, A8s-A2s, K8s, Q8s, J8s+, T8s, 98s, ATo-A7o, KJo, QJo, J9o+ }
If this is a -EV move, I don't think it is too terribly -EV.
Depending on how many aces he continues with, I don't think we're terribly far behind, and depending if he's playing a gutshot on the flop (i sure priced him in for one) and continuing it on the river, we can make this call. I think with the wide unknowns about this hand, the majority of them pointing to more +EV I can make this call for maybe a small profit in the long run. Also, the villain may be more inclined to call in with higher aces pre, as he is late with limpers, so the bottom end of his 11% might just be calling in. But I also doubt he is calling every ace on the flop, so this probably evens out.. Not enough hands to have a good read on what his 29/11 is... though I doubt pokerstove's ranges are more than 70% accurate here.
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J5s made me tank a bit
, 5
, J
(3 players)
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Originally Posted by jaytoi
