calling shove with small straight flush draw

[Viscaro]

NL Holdem $0.25(BB) Replayer
SB ($30.82)
BB ($32.73)
UTG ($24.75)
UTG+1 ($27)
CO ($25.76)
Hero ($36.50)

Dealt to Hero 5 7

UTG raises to $0.75, UTG+1 calls $0.75, fold, Hero calls $0.75, fold, fold

FLOP ($2.60) 8 4 4

UTG bets $1.30, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to $4.40, UTG raises to $24 (AI), Hero ???

So my flop raise is bad because my entire range is flush draws. At the time I thought I was preflop raiser (big hand on other table). Villain was 45/22 over 50ish hands. After his shove im getting around 39% pot equity. Despite having a straight flush draw his range crushes us. I'd heavily discount any 4 (utg raise) or 88 (likely to raise a smaller amount), so something like 99+ and some flush draws, maybe a couple of random spews with AK.

Board: 4c 4d 8c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.677% 39.60% 00.07% 16859 31.50 { 7c5c }
Hand 1: 60.323% 60.25% 00.07% 25648 31.50 { 99+, AKs, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc }

So flip a coin? Anything im missing here?

[bikes]

snapp call.

if you didnt want to get 3b shoulda just flatted

[supa]

I'm trying to see if I get this right so don't take this as advice.

bet/raise=19.60
pot=32.30
bet(bet+pot)
19.60(19.60+32.30)=.377

37.7<39.6=+EV

So call.

[JKDS]

@supahaole: utg raised TO 24, so his original 1.30 is already included in that 24. The pot then changes to 31 even

[supa]

@supahaole: utg raised TO 24, so his original 1.30 is already included in that 24. The pot then changes to 31 even

Thank you.So...

38.7<39.6=+EV

So still call?
It seems to me that these kind of barely +EV coin flips can only be +EV if you always call them.

Example:

If I flip a coin 100 times and villain gives me 51 cents to my 49 each time it hits heads I'm +EV,but if I don't call 25 of those flips I loose my advantage.I'm not sure if this is right but it has to have some value to the equation.

[spoonitnow]

It seems to me that these kind of barely +EV coin flips can only be +EV if you always call them.

Calling is +EV regardless of if you call or not.

[cleanup.that]

Spoon, who is that character in your sig? I used to have an action figure of him when I was a kid but I cant remember where he is from and its buggin the shit outta me now lol.

[Imthenewfish]

Spoon, who is that character in your sig? I used to have an action figure of him when I was a kid but I cant remember where he is from and its buggin the shit outta me now lol.

I don't think the picture is in his signature

[trilerian]

Spoon, who is that character in your sig? I used to have an action figure of him when I was a kid but I cant remember where he is from and its buggin the shit outta me now lol.

Skeletor. From Masters of the Universe.

[cleanup.that]

Ahh thank you!

[jaytoi]

Thank you.So...

38.7<39.6=+EV

So still call?
It seems to me that these kind of barely +EV coin flips can only be +EV if you always call them.

Example:

If I flip a coin 100 times and villain gives me 51 cents to my 49 each time it hits heads I'm +EV,but if I don't call 25 of those flips I loose my advantage.I'm not sure if this is right but it has to have some value to the equation.

No if you dont call 25 of those flips you lose 25 % of your advantage. Ez game bro
{Edit} The EV of each flip is 1 cent, so taking it every time we gain 1 dollar. If we dont take it 25 times we earn 75 cents instead. So we dont lose the whole edge we gain by taking the flip, if we choose not to take it some % of the time, just a bit of the edge.

[Donachello]

The fuck are you guys talking about. the EV of flipping a coin doesn't change ever. Independent Events.
Nice use of skeletor spoon. I lol'd

edit: listen to bbickes

[jaytoi]

All im saying is that the less you call a slightly +EV "flip" (which isn't actually a flip newayz) the less opportunities you have to apply the edge the flip gives you in that particular situation. Agreed the EV of an individual event doesn't change in relation to how much we choose to let the event happen.

[Fnord]

snapp call.

On a paired board? If it wasn't for the stove numbers, I'd fold and make a small mistake.

No pair on board, I can't get my money in fast enough.

[supa]

The fuck are you guys talking about. the EV of flipping a coin doesn't change ever. Independent Events.
Nice use of skeletor spoon. I lol'd

edit: listen to bbickes

No way can these be looked at as independent events.Viscaro is a huge dog in this hand when looked at by itself.The fact that he has pot odds to make this call means that he'll probably lose this hand close to 60% of the time but the other 40% he'll win enough over the long run to make up for it.If he only makes this call once he losses,if he makes this call 100 times he wins.If I'm wrong here please continue with the berating.

By the way,don't we have to take rake into consideration.

[JKDS]

That doesnt make any sense. If makes the call once he could certainly win the hand, and if he makes it 100 times he could certainly lose every single time. In fact, if we assume he'll win 40% of the time, he'll get exactly 40 wins over 100 calls only 8.12% of the time.

Thats not how expected value works. We know how to calculate it, and we know that by the law of large numbers that the average value of many many trials is going to approach the expected value. But trials dont have memory. The deck doesnt remember that the last time you were in this situation that you folded or that you've won your last 4 trials. Sure, if we expect to have positive expectation in something and then not do it, then we just chose a 0EV thing over a +EV thing and our income likely suffered because of it. But the expected value of doing that thing didnt change because we did this.

[supa]

Yeah, my bad.I was using 100 hands as a way to simplify it for myself when I should be saying exactly what I mean to reduce confusion.I understand that EV needs thousands of hands to start working for us.That said,I think if I invest money in anything and build a +EV return on my investment then choose to take a 0EV route I've made -EV choice.Sorry if I'm beating a dead horse.

[bikes]

On a paired board? If it wasn't for the stove numbers, I'd fold and make a small mistake.

No pair on board, I can't get my money in fast enough.

I wouldn't have raised the paired board to get into this spot but now that we did raise folding seems really silly.

[Fnord]

I wouldn't have raised the paired board to get into this spot but now that we did raise folding seems really silly.

I like both calling here (intending to take it away on the turn if shown weakness or he's two barreling too much) and just raising the flop to end it here.

Given the way the hand played out, it's pretty easy to put him on either a big pair or two big clubs. Terrible hands to be up against.

I still like raising if it gets him off of like AK/AQish stuff and gets him to flat (or even fold!) a lot of his pocket pairs.